11,453 research outputs found
Moment-Based Variational Inference for Markov Jump Processes
We propose moment-based variational inference as a flexible framework for
approximate smoothing of latent Markov jump processes. The main ingredient of
our approach is to partition the set of all transitions of the latent process
into classes. This allows to express the Kullback-Leibler divergence between
the approximate and the exact posterior process in terms of a set of moment
functions that arise naturally from the chosen partition. To illustrate
possible choices of the partition, we consider special classes of jump
processes that frequently occur in applications. We then extend the results to
parameter inference and demonstrate the method on several examples.Comment: Accepted by the 36th International Conference on Machine Learning
(ICML 2019
Parameter estimation and model testing for Markov processes via conditional characteristic functions
Markov processes are used in a wide range of disciplines, including finance.
The transition densities of these processes are often unknown. However, the
conditional characteristic functions are more likely to be available,
especially for L\'{e}vy-driven processes. We propose an empirical likelihood
approach, for both parameter estimation and model specification testing, based
on the conditional characteristic function for processes with either continuous
or discontinuous sample paths. Theoretical properties of the empirical
likelihood estimator for parameters and a smoothed empirical likelihood ratio
test for a parametric specification of the process are provided. Simulations
and empirical case studies are carried out to confirm the effectiveness of the
proposed estimator and test.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.3150/11-BEJ400 the Bernoulli
(http://isi.cbs.nl/bernoulli/) by the International Statistical
Institute/Bernoulli Society (http://isi.cbs.nl/BS/bshome.htm
Copula Processes
We define a copula process which describes the dependencies between
arbitrarily many random variables independently of their marginal
distributions. As an example, we develop a stochastic volatility model,
Gaussian Copula Process Volatility (GCPV), to predict the latent standard
deviations of a sequence of random variables. To make predictions we use
Bayesian inference, with the Laplace approximation, and with Markov chain Monte
Carlo as an alternative. We find both methods comparable. We also find our
model can outperform GARCH on simulated and financial data. And unlike GARCH,
GCPV can easily handle missing data, incorporate covariates other than time,
and model a rich class of covariance structures.Comment: 11 pages, 1 table, 1 figure. Submitted for publication. Since last
version: minor edits and reformattin
Inference for reaction networks using the Linear Noise Approximation
We consider inference for the reaction rates in discretely observed networks
such as those found in models for systems biology, population ecology and
epidemics. Most such networks are neither slow enough nor small enough for
inference via the true state-dependent Markov jump process to be feasible.
Typically, inference is conducted by approximating the dynamics through an
ordinary differential equation (ODE), or a stochastic differential equation
(SDE). The former ignores the stochasticity in the true model, and can lead to
inaccurate inferences. The latter is more accurate but is harder to implement
as the transition density of the SDE model is generally unknown. The Linear
Noise Approximation (LNA) is a first order Taylor expansion of the
approximating SDE about a deterministic solution and can be viewed as a
compromise between the ODE and SDE models. It is a stochastic model, but
discrete time transition probabilities for the LNA are available through the
solution of a series of ordinary differential equations. We describe how a
restarting LNA can be efficiently used to perform inference for a general class
of reaction networks; evaluate the accuracy of such an approach; and show how
and when this approach is either statistically or computationally more
efficient than ODE or SDE methods. We apply the LNA to analyse Google Flu
Trends data from the North and South Islands of New Zealand, and are able to
obtain more accurate short-term forecasts of new flu cases than another
recently proposed method, although at a greater computational cost
The Hitchhiker's Guide to Nonlinear Filtering
Nonlinear filtering is the problem of online estimation of a dynamic hidden
variable from incoming data and has vast applications in different fields,
ranging from engineering, machine learning, economic science and natural
sciences. We start our review of the theory on nonlinear filtering from the
simplest `filtering' task we can think of, namely static Bayesian inference.
From there we continue our journey through discrete-time models, which is
usually encountered in machine learning, and generalize to and further
emphasize continuous-time filtering theory. The idea of changing the
probability measure connects and elucidates several aspects of the theory, such
as the parallels between the discrete- and continuous-time problems and between
different observation models. Furthermore, it gives insight into the
construction of particle filtering algorithms. This tutorial is targeted at
scientists and engineers and should serve as an introduction to the main ideas
of nonlinear filtering, and as a segway to more advanced and specialized
literature.Comment: 64 page
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