2,548 research outputs found
Approximate strategic reasoning through hierarchical reduction of large symmetric games
To deal with exponential growth in the size of a game with the number of agents, we propose an approximation based on a hierarchy of reduced games. The reduced game achieves sav-ings by restricting the number of agents playing any strategy to fixed multiples. We validate the idea through experiments on randomly generated local-effect games. An extended ap-plication to strategic reasoning about a complex trading sce-nario motivates the approach, and demonstrates methods for game-theoretic reasoning over incompletely-specified games at multiple levels of granularity
Approximate Analysis of Large Simulation-Based Games.
Game theory offers powerful tools for reasoning about agent behavior and incentives in multi-agent systems. Traditional approaches to game-theoretic analysis require enumeration of all possible strategies and outcomes. This often constrains game models to small numbers of agents and strategies or simple closed-form payoff descriptions. Simulation-based game theory extends the reach of game-theoretic analysis through the use of agent-based modeling. In the simulation-based approach, the analyst describes an environment procedurally and then computes payoffs by simulation of agent interactions in that environment.
I use simulation-based game theory to study a model of credit network formation. Credit networks represent trust relationships in a directed graph and have been proposed as a mechanism for distributed transactions without a central currency. I explore what information is important when agents make initial decisions of whom to trust, and what sorts of networks can result from their decisions. This setting demonstrates both the value of simulation-based game theory—extending game-theoretic analysis beyond analytically tractable models—and its limitations—simulations produce prodigious amounts of data, and the number of simulations grows exponentially in the number of agents and strategies.
I propose several techniques for approximate analysis of simulation-based games with large numbers of agents and large amounts of simulation data. First, I show how bootstrap-based statistics can be used to estimate confidence bounds on the results of simulation-based game analysis. I show that bootstrap confidence intervals for regret of approximate equilibria are well-calibrated. Next, I describe deviation-preserving reduction, which approximates an environment with a large number of agents using a game model with a small number of players, and demonstrate that it outperforms previous player reductions on several measures. Finally, I employ machine learning to construct game models from sparse data sets, and provide evidence that learned game models can produce even better approximate equilibria in large games than deviation-preserving reduction.PhDComputer Science and EngineeringUniversity of Michigan, Horace H. Rackham School of Graduate Studieshttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/113587/1/btwied_1.pd
Imperfect-Recall Abstractions with Bounds in Games
Imperfect-recall abstraction has emerged as the leading paradigm for
practical large-scale equilibrium computation in incomplete-information games.
However, imperfect-recall abstractions are poorly understood, and only weak
algorithm-specific guarantees on solution quality are known. In this paper, we
show the first general, algorithm-agnostic, solution quality guarantees for
Nash equilibria and approximate self-trembling equilibria computed in
imperfect-recall abstractions, when implemented in the original
(perfect-recall) game. Our results are for a class of games that generalizes
the only previously known class of imperfect-recall abstractions where any
results had been obtained. Further, our analysis is tighter in two ways, each
of which can lead to an exponential reduction in the solution quality error
bound.
We then show that for extensive-form games that satisfy certain properties,
the problem of computing a bound-minimizing abstraction for a single level of
the game reduces to a clustering problem, where the increase in our bound is
the distance function. This reduction leads to the first imperfect-recall
abstraction algorithm with solution quality bounds. We proceed to show a divide
in the class of abstraction problems. If payoffs are at the same scale at all
information sets considered for abstraction, the input forms a metric space.
Conversely, if this condition is not satisfied, we show that the input does not
form a metric space. Finally, we use these results to experimentally
investigate the quality of our bound for single-level abstraction
A cognitive hierarchy theory of one-shot games: Some preliminary results
Strategic thinking, best-response, and mutual consistency (equilibrium) are three
key modelling principles in noncooperative game theory. This paper relaxes mutual
consistency to predict how players are likely to behave in in one-shot games before they
can learn to equilibrate. We introduce a one-parameter cognitive hierarchy (CH) model
to predict behavior in one-shot games, and initial conditions in repeated games. The CH
approach assumes that players use k steps of reasoning with frequency f (k). Zero-step
players randomize. Players using k (≥ 1) steps best respond given partially rational
expectations about what players doing 0 through k - 1 steps actually choose. A simple
axiom which expresses the intuition that steps of thinking are increasingly constrained by
working memory, implies that f (k) has a Poisson distribution (characterized by a mean
number of thinking steps τ ). The CH model converges to dominance-solvable equilibria
when τ is large, predicts monotonic entry in binary entry games for τ < 1:25, and predicts
effects of group size which are not predicted by Nash equilibrium. Best-fitting values of
τ have an interquartile range of (.98,2.40) and a median of 1.65 across 80 experimental
samples of matrix games, entry games, mixed-equilibrium games, and dominance-solvable
p-beauty contests. The CH model also has economic value because subjects would have
raised their earnings substantially if they had best-responded to model forecasts instead
of making the choices they did
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Learning and Solving Many-Player Games Through a Cluster-Based Representation
In addressing the challenge of exponential scaling with the number of agents we adopt a cluster-based representation to approximately solve asymmetric games of very many players. A cluster groups together agents with a similar “strategic view ” of the game. We learn the clustered approximation from data consisting of strategy profiles and payoffs, which may be obtained from observations of play or access to a simulator. Using our clustering we construct a reduced “twins” game in which each cluster is associated with two players of the reduced game. This allows our representation to be individuallyresponsive because we align the interests of every individual agent with the strategy of its cluster. Our approach provides agents with higher payoffs and lower regret on average than model-free methods as well as previous cluster-based methods, and requires only few observations for learning to be successful. The “twins ” approach is shown to be an important component of providing these low regret approximations.Engineering and Applied Science
Heterogeneous Quantal Response Equilibrium and Cognitive Hierarchies
We explore an equilibrium model of games where players’ choice behavior is given by logit response functions, but their payoff responsiveness is heterogeneous. We extend the definition of quantal response equilibrium to this setting, calling it heterogeneous quantal response equilibrium (HQRE), and prove existence under weak conditions. We generalize HQRE to allow for limited insight, in which players can only imagine others with low responsiveness. We identify a formal connection between this new equilibrium concept, called truncated quantal response equilibrium (TQRE), and the Cognitive Hierarchy (CH) model. We show that CH can be approximated arbitrarily closely by TQRE. We report a series of experiments comparing the performance of QRE, HQRE, TQRE and CH. A surprise is that the fi of the models are quite close across a variety of matrix and dominance-solvable asymmetric information betting games. The key link is that in the QRE approaches, strategies with higher expected payoffs are chosen more often than strategies with lower expected payoff. In CH this property is not built into the model, but generally holds true in the experimental data
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