938 research outputs found
Exploring Interpretable LSTM Neural Networks over Multi-Variable Data
For recurrent neural networks trained on time series with target and
exogenous variables, in addition to accurate prediction, it is also desired to
provide interpretable insights into the data. In this paper, we explore the
structure of LSTM recurrent neural networks to learn variable-wise hidden
states, with the aim to capture different dynamics in multi-variable time
series and distinguish the contribution of variables to the prediction. With
these variable-wise hidden states, a mixture attention mechanism is proposed to
model the generative process of the target. Then we develop associated training
methods to jointly learn network parameters, variable and temporal importance
w.r.t the prediction of the target variable. Extensive experiments on real
datasets demonstrate enhanced prediction performance by capturing the dynamics
of different variables. Meanwhile, we evaluate the interpretation results both
qualitatively and quantitatively. It exhibits the prospect as an end-to-end
framework for both forecasting and knowledge extraction over multi-variable
data.Comment: Accepted to International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML), 201
Air quality and urban sustainable development: the application of machine learning tools
[EN] Air quality has an efect on a populationÂżs quality of life. As a dimension of sustainable urban development, governments have been concerned about this indicator. This is refected in the references consulted that have demonstrated progress in forecasting pollution events to issue early warnings using conventional tools which, as a result of the new era of big data, are becoming obsolete. There are a limited number of studies with applications of machine learning tools to characterize and forecast behavior of the environmental, social and economic dimensions of sustainable development as they pertain to air quality. This article presents an analysis of studies that developed machine learning models to forecast sustainable development and air quality. Additionally, this paper sets out to present research that studied the relationship between air quality and urban sustainable development to identify the reliability and possible applications in diferent urban contexts of these machine learning tools. To that end, a systematic review was carried out, revealing that machine learning tools have been primarily used for clustering and classifying variables and indicators according to the problem analyzed, while tools such as artifcial neural networks and support vector machines are the most widely used to predict diferent types of events. The nonlinear nature and synergy of the dimensions of sustainable development are of great interest for the application of machine learning tools.Molina-GĂłmez, NI.; DĂaz-ArĂ©valo, JL.; LĂłpez JimĂ©nez, PA. (2021). Air quality and urban sustainable development: the application of machine learning tools. 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Spatial-temporal prediction of air quality based on recurrent neural networks
To predict air quality (PM2.5 concentrations, et al), many parametric regression models have been developed, while deep learning algorithms are used less often. And few of them takes the air pollution emission or spatial information into consideration or predict them in hour scale. In this paper, we proposed a spatial-temporal GRU-based prediction framework incorporating ground pollution monitoring (GPM), factory emissions (FE), surface meteorology monitoring (SMM) variables to predict hourly PM2.5 concentrations. The dataset for empirical experiments was built based on air quality monitoring in Shenyang, China. Experimental results indicate that our method enables more accurate predictions than all baseline models and by applying the convolutional processing to the GPM and FE variables notable improvement can be achieved in prediction accuracy
Spatiotemporal and temporal forecasting of ambient air pollution levels through data-intensive hybrid artificial neural network models
Outdoor air pollution (AP) is a serious public threat which has been linked to severe respiratory and cardiovascular illnesses, and premature deaths especially among those residing in highly urbanised cities. As such, there is a need to develop early-warning and risk management tools to alleviate its effects. The main objective of this research is to develop AP forecasting models based on Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) according to an identified model-building protocol from existing related works. Plain, hybrid and ensemble ANN model architectures were developed to estimate the temporal and spatiotemporal variability of hourly NO2 levels in several locations in the Greater London area. Wavelet decomposition was integrated with Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) and Long Short-term Memory (LSTM) models to address the issue of high variability of AP data and improve the estimation of peak AP levels. Block-splitting and crossvalidation procedures have been adapted to validate the models based on Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), and Willmottâs index of agreement (IA). The results of the proposed models present better performance than those from the benchmark models. For instance, the proposed wavelet-based hybrid approach provided 39.15% and 28.58% reductions in RMSE and MAE indices, respectively, on the performance of the benchmark MLP model results for the temporal forecasting of NO2 levels. The same approach reduced the RMSE and MAE indices of the benchmark LSTM model results by 12.45% and 20.08%, respectively, for the spatiotemporal estimation of NO2 levels in one site at Central London. The proposed hybrid deep learning approach offers great potential to be operational in providing air pollution forecasts in areas without a reliable database. The model-building protocol adapted in this thesis can also be applied to studies using measurements from other sites.Outdoor air pollution (AP) is a serious public threat which has been linked to severe respiratory and cardiovascular illnesses, and premature deaths especially among those residing in highly urbanised cities. As such, there is a need to develop early-warning and risk management tools to alleviate its effects. The main objective of this research is to develop AP forecasting models based on Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) according to an identified model-building protocol from existing related works. Plain, hybrid and ensemble ANN model architectures were developed to estimate the temporal and spatiotemporal variability of hourly NO2 levels in several locations in the Greater London area. Wavelet decomposition was integrated with Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) and Long Short-term Memory (LSTM) models to address the issue of high variability of AP data and improve the estimation of peak AP levels. Block-splitting and crossvalidation procedures have been adapted to validate the models based on Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), and Willmottâs index of agreement (IA). The results of the proposed models present better performance than those from the benchmark models. For instance, the proposed wavelet-based hybrid approach provided 39.15% and 28.58% reductions in RMSE and MAE indices, respectively, on the performance of the benchmark MLP model results for the temporal forecasting of NO2 levels. The same approach reduced the RMSE and MAE indices of the benchmark LSTM model results by 12.45% and 20.08%, respectively, for the spatiotemporal estimation of NO2 levels in one site at Central London. The proposed hybrid deep learning approach offers great potential to be operational in providing air pollution forecasts in areas without a reliable database. The model-building protocol adapted in this thesis can also be applied to studies using measurements from other sites
A Review of 21st-Century Studies
PM10 prediction has attracted special legislative and scientific attention due
to its harmful effects on human health. Statistical techniques have the
potential for high-accuracy PM10 prediction and accordingly, previous studies
on statistical methods for temporal, spatial and spatio-temporal prediction of
PM10 are reviewed and discussed in this paper. A review of previous studies
demonstrates that Support Vector Machines, Artificial Neural Networks and
hybrid techniques show promise for suitable temporal PM10 prediction. A review
of the spatial predictions of PM10 shows that the LUR (Land Use Regression)
approach has been successfully utilized for spatial prediction of PM10 in
urban areas. Of the six introduced approaches for spatio-temporal prediction
of PM10, only one approach is suitable for high-resolved prediction (Spatial
resolution < 100 m; Temporal resolution € 24 h). In this approach, based upon
the LUR modeling method, short-term dynamic input variables are employed as
explanatory variables alongside typical non-dynamic input variables in a non-
linear modeling procedure
Graph Neural Network for spatiotemporal data: methods and applications
In the era of big data, there has been a surge in the availability of data
containing rich spatial and temporal information, offering valuable insights
into dynamic systems and processes for applications such as weather
forecasting, natural disaster management, intelligent transport systems, and
precision agriculture. Graph neural networks (GNNs) have emerged as a powerful
tool for modeling and understanding data with dependencies to each other such
as spatial and temporal dependencies. There is a large amount of existing work
that focuses on addressing the complex spatial and temporal dependencies in
spatiotemporal data using GNNs. However, the strong interdisciplinary nature of
spatiotemporal data has created numerous GNNs variants specifically designed
for distinct application domains. Although the techniques are generally
applicable across various domains, cross-referencing these methods remains
essential yet challenging due to the absence of a comprehensive literature
review on GNNs for spatiotemporal data. This article aims to provide a
systematic and comprehensive overview of the technologies and applications of
GNNs in the spatiotemporal domain. First, the ways of constructing graphs from
spatiotemporal data are summarized to help domain experts understand how to
generate graphs from various types of spatiotemporal data. Then, a systematic
categorization and summary of existing spatiotemporal GNNs are presented to
enable domain experts to identify suitable techniques and to support model
developers in advancing their research. Moreover, a comprehensive overview of
significant applications in the spatiotemporal domain is offered to introduce a
broader range of applications to model developers and domain experts, assisting
them in exploring potential research topics and enhancing the impact of their
work. Finally, open challenges and future directions are discussed
A Systematic Review for Transformer-based Long-term Series Forecasting
The emergence of deep learning has yielded noteworthy advancements in time
series forecasting (TSF). Transformer architectures, in particular, have
witnessed broad utilization and adoption in TSF tasks. Transformers have proven
to be the most successful solution to extract the semantic correlations among
the elements within a long sequence. Various variants have enabled transformer
architecture to effectively handle long-term time series forecasting (LTSF)
tasks. In this article, we first present a comprehensive overview of
transformer architectures and their subsequent enhancements developed to
address various LTSF tasks. Then, we summarize the publicly available LTSF
datasets and relevant evaluation metrics. Furthermore, we provide valuable
insights into the best practices and techniques for effectively training
transformers in the context of time-series analysis. Lastly, we propose
potential research directions in this rapidly evolving field
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