Improving probabilistic flood forecasting through a data assimilation scheme based on genetic programming

Opportunities offered by high performance computing provide a significant degree of promise in the enhancement of the performance of real-time flood forecasting systems. In this paper, a real-time framework for probabilistic flood forecasting through data assimilation is presented. The distributed rainfall-runoff real-time interactive basin simulator (RIBS) model is selected to simulate the hydrological process in the basin. Although the RIBS model is deterministic, it is run in a probabilistic way through the results of calibration developed in a previous work performed by the authors that identifies the probability distribution functions that best characterise the most relevant model parameters. Adaptive techniques improve the result of flood forecasts because the model can be adapted to observations in real time as new information is available. The new adaptive forecast model based on genetic programming as a data assimilation technique is compared with the previously developed flood forecast model based on the calibration results. Both models are probabilistic as they generate an ensemble of hydrographs, taking the different uncertainties inherent in any forecast process into account. The Manzanares River basin was selected as a case study, with the process being computationally intensive as it requires simulation of many replicas of the ensemble in real time

Improved Tidal and Non-Tidal Representation of Numerical Models through Data Model Integration

Ph.DDOCTOR OF PHILOSOPH

Advancing Urban Flood Resilience With Smart Water Infrastructure

Advances in wireless communications and low-power electronics are enabling a new generation of smart water systems that will employ real-time sensing and control to solve our most pressing water challenges. In a future characterized by these systems, networks of sensors will detect and communicate flood events at the neighborhood scale to improve disaster response. Meanwhile, wirelessly-controlled valves and pumps will coordinate reservoir releases to halt combined sewer overflows and restore water quality in urban streams. While these technologies promise to transform the field of water resources engineering, considerable knowledge gaps remain with regards to how smart water systems should be designed and operated. This dissertation presents foundational work towards building the smart water systems of the future, with a particular focus on applications to urban flooding. First, I introduce a first-of-its-kind embedded platform for real-time sensing and control of stormwater systems that will enable emergency managers to detect and respond to urban flood events in real-time. Next, I introduce new methods for hydrologic data assimilation that will enable real-time geolocation of floods and water quality hazards. Finally, I present theoretical contributions to the problem of controller placement in hydraulic networks that will help guide the design of future decentralized flood control systems. Taken together, these contributions pave the way for adaptive stormwater infrastructure that will mitigate the impacts of urban flooding through real-time response.PHDCivil EngineeringUniversity of Michigan, Horace H. Rackham School of Graduate Studieshttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/163144/1/mdbartos_1.pd

Advanced Computer Technologies for Integrated Agro-Hydrologic Systems Modeling: Coupled Crop and Hydrologic Models for Agricultural Intensification Impacts Assessment

Coupling hydrologic and crop models is increasingly becoming an important task when addressing agro-hydrologic systems studies. Either for resources conservation or cropping systems improvement, the complex interactions between hydrologic regime and crop management components requires an integrative approach in order to be fully understood. Nevertheless, the literature offers limited resources on models’ coupling that targets environmental scientists. Indeed, major of guides are are destined primarily for computer specialists and make them hard to encompass and apply. To address this gap, we present an extensive research to crop and hydrologic models coupling that targets earth agro-hydrologic modeling studies in its integrative complexity. The primary focus is to understand the relationship between agricultural intensification and its impacts on hydrologic balance. We provided documentations, classifications, applications and references of the available technologies and trends of development. We applied the results of the investigation by coupling the DREAM hydrologic model with DSSAT crop model. Both models were upgraded either on their code source (DREAM) or operational base (DSSAT) for interoperability and parallelization. The resulting model operates at a grid base and daily step. The model is applied southern Italy to analyze the effect of fertilizer application on runoff generation between 2000 and 2013. The results of the study show a significant impacts of nitrogen application on water yield. Indeed, nearly 71.5 thousand cubic-meter of rain water for every kilogram of nitrogen and per hectare is lost as a reduction of runoff coefficient. Furthermore, a significant correlation between the nitrogen applications amount and runoff is found at a yearly basis with Pearson’s coefficient of 0.93

Improving operational flood forecasting using data assimilation

Hoogwatervoorspellingssystemen die betrouwbaar en nauwkeurig overstromingen kunnen voorspellen zijn erg belangrijk, omdat dit het aantal slachtoffers en de economische schade van overstromingen kan beperken. Het begrijpen van het gedrag van extreme hydrologische gebeurtenissen en het vermogen van de modelleur om betere en nauwkeurigere prognoses te krijgen, zijn uitdagingen binnen de toegepaste hydrologie. Omdat modellen slechts een versimpelde weergave van de complexe werkelijkheid geven, kleven er aan hydrologische voorspellingen veel onzekerheden. Dit proefschrift draagt bij aan een verbeterd begrip en kwantificatie van hydrologische modelonzekerheid, vooral gekoppeld aan de initi¨ele condities van het model, en in mindere mate aan de modelstructuur en de parameters

Plus-value hydrologique du post-traitement de la prévision météorologique d'ensemble

La prévision d’ensemble hydrologique est devenue un élément clé pour atténuer les effets des catastrophes naturelles (crues et sécheresses) et pour aider à la gestion des barrages (gestion du risque et de la ressource). Une approche probabiliste permet de représenter l’incertitude de prévision et de faciliter la prise de décision. Dans cette étude, un système automatique de prévision d’ensemble du débit tenant compte des principales sources d’incertitude est utilisé. L’incertitude météorologique est décrite en utilisant des prévisions d’ensemble météorologiques (MEPS) qui, malgré des améliorations constantes, peuvent rester localement biaisées et/ou peu fiables. Ces deux problèmes peuvent affecter la qualité de la prévision du débit et les décisions qui en résultent. Cette étude vise à évaluer si un post-traitement de la prévision météorologique est utile pour améliorer la prévision du débit produite par un système quantifiant les principales sources d’incertitude. Deux techniques de post-traitement météorologique sont utilisées pour corriger des prévisions de précipitation ECMWF : “Censored, Shifted Gamma Distribution” (CSGD) et “Distribution-based scaling” (DBS). Les prévisions de précipitations brutes et post-traitées sont utilisées pour forcer 20 modèles hydrologiques et obtenir des prévisions d’ensemble de débits. L’incertitude liée aux conditions initiales sont décrites par une assimilation de données (filtre d’ensemble de Kalman). Le post-traitement de la prévision de précipitation est évalué sur les sous-bassins de la rivière Gatineau au Québec en utilisant une évaluation multi-critères (diagramme de fiabilité, MCRPS...). Les résultats montrent une amélioration de la prévision météorologique en termes de fiabilité pour tous les bassins. Cette amélioration dépend de la quantité de précipitations, de l’horizon de prévision et de la saison. Les améliorations en termes d’exactitude sont plus modérées. Cependant, l’amélioration de la qualité de la prévision de précipitation a un impact faible sur la prévision du débit.Ensemble streamflow forecast has become a key element to mitigate the effects of natural disasters such as floods and droughts and to help dam management (risk and resource management). A probabilistic framework allows to represent the uncertainty linked to the forecast and in this way help the decision making. In this study, an automatic streamflow ensemble prediction system that accounts for three sources of uncertainty is used. Meteorological uncertainty is accounted for by using a meteorological ensemble prediction systems (MEPS) which despite constant improvements remain locally biased and/or unreliable. These problems can affect the quality of the streamflow forecast and consequently, the resulting decision. This study aims at evaluating if a MEPS post-processing is useful to improve streamflow forecasts issued by a modeling chain that quantifies the main sources of uncertainty. Two MEPS postprocessing techniques were used to correct the ECMWF precipitation forecast: Censored, Shifted Gamma Distribution (CSGD) and Distribution-based scaling (DBS). The raw and post-processed ensemble precipitation forecasts are used as forcing variables to 20 rainfallrunoff models to produce ensemble streamflow forecasts. To consider the uncertainty arising from the initial conditions, the hydrological models benefit from data assimilation (Ensemble Kalman Filter). The post-processing of precipitation forecast is assessed over Gatineau’s sub-basins in Quebec using a multi-criteria evaluation (reliability diagram, MCRPS...). The results show an improvement in the meteorological forecast in terms of reliability for all the basins. This improvement varies by amount of precipitation, forecast lead time and season. The improvements in terms of accuracy were more moderate. However, the use of a meteorological post-processing technique did not lead to an improvement of the streamflow forecast