Operational Planning of Channel Airlift Missions Using Forecasted Demand

Past research proposed that it is possible to forecast cargo demand using time series models and that there exists potential cost savings in the way that Civilian Reserve Air Fleet (CRAF) is used for cargo airlift. United States Transportation Command (USTRANSCOM) performs annual fixed-buys of CRAF to support airlift needs. Forecasted cargo demand would allow for reasonably accurate cargo projections vs. the current expected value estimation. Accurate forecasting allows for greater fixed-buys, further incentivizing CRAF airlines as well as reducing the number of additional aircraft purchases during the quarterly and monthly buys. Multiple forecasting models are constructed and the results compared. A Monte Carlo simulation using a discrete pallet destinations distribution and a discrete pallet port arrival date distribution (based on historical data) outputs a month of projected pallet weights (with date and destination) that are equivalent to the forecasted cargo amount. The simulated pallets are then used in a heuristic cargo loading algorithm. The loading algorithm places cargo onto available aircraft (based on real schedules) given the date and the destination and outputs statistics based on the aircraft ton and pallet utilization as well as number of aircraft types used and the total cost of the projected airlift schedule. A technical approach to the operational planning of cargo airlift could provide significant cost savings or could provide an alternative planning approach changing the future of USTRANSCOM operations

Embracing Analytics in the Drinking Water Industry

Analytics can support numerous aspects of water industry planning, management, and operations. Given this wide range of touchpoints and applications, it is becoming increasingly imperative that the championship and capability of broad-based analytics needs to be developed and practically integrated to address the current and transitional challenges facing the drinking water industry. Analytics will contribute substantially to future efforts to provide innovative solutions that make the water industry more sustainable and resilient. The purpose of this book is to introduce analytics to practicing water engineers so they can deploy the covered subjects, approaches, and detailed techniques in their daily operations, management, and decision-making processes. Also, undergraduate students as well as early graduate students who are in the water concentrations will be exposed to established analytical techniques, along with many methods that are currently considered to be new or emerging/maturing. This book covers a broad spectrum of water industry analytics topics in an easy-to-follow manner. The overall background and contexts are motivated by (and directly drawn from) actual water utility projects that the authors have worked on numerous recent years. The authors strongly believe that the water industry should embrace and integrate data-driven fundamentals and methods into their daily operations and decision-making process(es) to replace established ìrule-of-thumbî and weak heuristic approaches ñ and an analytics viewpoint, approach, and culture is key to this industry transformation

Advanced Operation and Maintenance in Solar Plants, Wind Farms and Microgrids

This reprint presents advances in operation and maintenance in solar plants, wind farms and microgrids. This compendium of scientific articles will help clarify the current advances in this subject, so it is expected that it will please the reader

Development of Unit Price Indices and Estimating Inflation for Potable Water and Wastewater Pipeline Capital Works Construction

The importance of sustainable financial management of water and wastewater pipeline infrastructure has grown in recent years due to the increasing backlog of maintenance, renewal and replacement of aging water and wastewater infrastructure. As the water and wastewater infrastructure age, the condition of the water and wastewater infrastructure will continue to deteriorate increasing the cost for renewal and replacement. In response to the aging and deteriorating potable water and wastewater infrastructure Public Sector Accounting Board PS3150 and Regulation 453/07 under the Ontario Safe Drinking Water Act were established. PS3150 requires local governments to report their tangible capital assets along with their depreciation on financial statements. One key component of this reporting is determining the need for and cost of the replacement of these assets. Ontario Regulation 453/07 requires public utilities to prepare and submit long term financial plans for water systems. One key principle of the financial plans is that the expenses of operating water systems should be paid by revenues generated from providing the water systems. A crucial aspect of PS3150, Ontario regulation 453/07 and the financial management of water and wastewater infrastructure are accurate estimates of future capital works construction prices. Historically, construction indices are used to forecast construction prices. Engineering New Record (ENR) Construction Cost Index (CCI), Federal Highway Administration (FWHA) composite National Highway Construction Cost Index (NHCCI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) have been used to estimate future construction prices of water and wastewater infrastructure in Canada. However, these indices do not accurately represent the circumstance of the water and wastewater infrastructure construction sector, which can lead to errors and inaccuracies in construction price forecasts. It is recommended sector specific construction indices be used to forecast construction prices. However, there are few construction indices available for the water and wastewater infrastructure sector and available indices are not based on actual construction data. This thesis presents a methodology to accurately estimate future construction prices for water and wastewater pipeline capital works based on actual construction price data. The methodology contains three components: construction data processing, development of unit price indices for watermain and sanitary sewer construction, and estimation of inflation in watermain and sanitary sewer construction. The data processing component cleans and transforms actual construction price data from the City of Niagara Falls from 1981 to 2014 into a centralized, organized and auditable construction price dataset. Based on the construction price dataset, unit price indices specific to the watermain and sanitary sewer construction sector were developed. Unit price indices were developed and calculated for watermain projects, pipes, valves, and hydrants, and sanitary sewer projects, pipes, and maintenance holes. Geometric Brownian Motion was used to estimate inflation in and forecast future construction prices for watermain and sanitary sewer capital works construction based on the developed unit price indices. A Microsoft Access relational database containing the data processing function, calculation of watermain and sanitary sewer unit price indices, and estimation of inflation was developed to improve the accuracy, efficiency and consistency of the methodology. Additionally, the methodology allows contractor markup in watermain and sanitary sewer construction and factors influencing watermain and sanitary sewer unit price indices to be examined. The inflation of watermain reference project construction is 5.79% per annum from 1982-2014, while the inflation of sanitary sewer reference project capital works construction is 4.66% per annum from 1981-2014. The inflation rates of watermain pipe, valve and hydrant construction from 1982-2014 are 6.36%, 5.09%, and 2.81% per annum, respectively. The inflation rates of sanitary sewer pipe and maintenance hole construction from 1981-2014 are 7.41% and 5.25% per annum, respectively. Inflation of watermain and sanitary sewer reference projects is above inflation of CPI, NRBCPI and LDCCT at 2.25%, 3.17% and 3.77% per annum, respectively, but below inflation of S&P/TSX composite index at 6.90% per annum. This indicates when forecasting future prices within a construction sector, the use of a proxy index will result in inaccurate estimates of future construction prices. In the water and wastewater pipeline construction sector the use of CPI, NRBCPI or LDCCT will result in significant underestimation of future construction prices. To obtain accurate estimates of future construction prices it is important to use sector specific indices which the developed unit price indices represent for the water and wastewater pipeline construction sector. In this thesis contractor markup is defined as a financial premium in excess of market inflation in the form of a per annum interest rate surcharge. Contractor markup includes risk premiums, overhead and profit. The contractor markups for watermain and sanitary sewer projects are 3.54% and 2.41%, respectively. As the number of tender bids submitted for a project increase, the unit price of reference projects generally decreases. This is caused by an increase in the competition among contractors resulting in a decrease in the unit prices of the reference projects as bidders attempt to win the project. The Infrastructure Stimulus Fund increased the total number of projects and the total value of projects in 2009 and 2010 but did not significantly alter the watermain and sanitary sewer unit price indices

Европейский и национальный контексты в научных исследованиях - 2021 : Технология

В настоящем электронном сборнике «Европейский и национальный контексты в научных исследованиях. Технология» представлены работы молодых ученых по геодезии и картографии, химической технологии и машиностроению, информационным технологиям, строительству и радиотехнике. Предназначены для работников образования, науки и производства. Будут полезны студентам, магистрантам и аспирантам университетов.=In this Electronic collected materials “European and national dimension in research. Technology” works in the fields of geodesy, chemical technology, mechanical engineering, information technology, civil engineering, and radio-engineering are presented. It is intended for trainers, researchers and professionals. It can be useful for university graduate and post-graduate students

Historia, evolución y perspectivas de futuro en la utilización de técnicas de simulación en la gestión portuaria: aplicaciones en el análisis de operaciones, estrategia y planificación portuaria

Programa Oficial de Doutoramento en Análise Económica e Estratexia Empresarial. 5033V0[Resumen] Las técnicas de simulación, tal y como hoy las conocemos, comenzaron a mediados del siglo XX; primero con la aparición del primer computador y el desarrollo del método Monte Carlo, y más tarde con el desarrollo del primer simulador de propósito específico conocido como GPS y desarrollado por Geoffrey Gordon en IBM y la publicación del primer texto completo dedicado a esta materia y llamado the Art of Simulation (K.D. Tocher, 1963). Estás técnicas han evolucionado de una manera extraordinaria y hoy en día están plenamente implementadas en diversos campos de actividad. Las instalaciones portuarias no han escapado de esta tendencia, especialmente las dedicadas al tráfico de contenedores. Efectivamente, las características intrínsecas de este sector económico, le hacen un candidato idóneo para la implementación de modelos de simulación con propósitos y alcances muy diversos. No existe, sin embargo y hasta lo que conocemos, un trabajo científico que compile y analice pormenorizadamente tanto la historia como la evolución de simulación en ambientes portuarios, ayudando a clasificar los mismos y determinar cómo estos pueden ayudar en el análisis económico de estas instalaciones y en la formulación de las oportunas estrategias empresariales. Este es el objetivo último de la presente tesis doctoral.[Resumo] As técnicas de simulación, tal e como hoxe as coñecemos, comezaron a mediados do século XX; primeiro coa aparición do computador e o desenvolvemento do método Monte Carlo e máis tarde co desenvolvemento do primeiro simulador de propósito específico coñecido como GPS e desenvolvido por Geoffrey Gordon en IBM e a publicación do primeiro texto completo dedicado a este tema chamado “A Arte da Simulación” (K.D. Tocher, 1963). Estas técnicas evolucionaron dun xeito extraordinario e hoxe en día están plenamente implementadas en diversos campos de actividade. As instalacións portuarias non escaparon desta tendencia, especialmente as dedicadas ao tráfico de contenedores. Efectivamente, as características intrínsecas deste sector económico, fanlle un candidato idóneo para a implementación de modelos de simulación con propósitos e alcances moi variados. Con todo, e ata o que coñecemos, non existe un traballo científico que compila e analiza de forma detallada tanto a historia como a evolución da simulación en estes ambientes portuarios, clasificando os mesmos e determinando como estes poden axudar na análise económica destas instalacións e na formulación das oportunas estratexias empresariais. Este é o último obxectivo da presente tese doutoral.[Abstract] Simulation, to the extend that we understand it nowadays, began in the middle of the 20th century; first with the appearance of the computer and the development of the Monte Carlo method, and later with the development of the first specific purpose simulator known as GPS developed by Geoffrey Gordon in IBM. This author published the first full text devoted to this subject “The Art of Simulation” in 1963. These techniques have evolved in an extraordinary way and nowadays they are fully implemented in different fields of activity. Port facilities have not escaped this trend, especially those dedicated to container traffic. Indeed, the intrinsic characteristics of this economic sector, make it a suitable candidate for the implementation of simulation with very different purposes and scope. However, to the best of our knowelegde, there is not a scientific work that compiles and analyzes in detail both, the history and the evolution of simulation in port environments, contributing to classify them and determine how they can help in the economic analysis of these facilities and in the formulation of different business strategies. This is the ultimate goal of this doctoral thesis