A seasonal auto-regressive model based support vector regression prediction method for H5N1 avian influenza animal events

The time series prediction of avian influenza epidemics is a complex issue, because avian influenza has latent seasonality which is difficult to identify. Although researchers have applied a neural network (NN) model and the Box-Jenkins model for the seasonal epidemic series research area, the results are limited. In this study, we develop a new prediction seasonal auto-regressive-based support vector regression (SAR-SVR) model which combines the seasonal auto-regressive (SAR) model with a support vector regression (SVR) model to address this prediction problem to overcome existing limitations. Fast Fourier transformation is also merged into this method to identify the latent seasonality inside the time series. The experiments demonstrate that the developed SAR-SVR method out-performs SVR, Box-Jenkins models and two layer feed forward NN model-both in accuracy and stability in the avian influenza epidemic disease time series prediction. © 2011 Imperial College Press

Z-Numbers-Based Approach to Hotel Service Quality Assessment

In this study, we are analyzing the possibility of using Z-numbers for measuring the service quality and decision-making for quality improvement in the hotel industry. Techniques used for these purposes are based on consumer evalu- ations - expectations and perceptions. As a rule, these evaluations are expressed in crisp numbers (Likert scale) or fuzzy estimates. However, descriptions of the respondent opinions based on crisp or fuzzy numbers formalism not in all cases are relevant. The existing methods do not take into account the degree of con- fidence of respondents in their assessments. A fuzzy approach better describes the uncertainties associated with human perceptions and expectations. Linguis- tic values are more acceptable than crisp numbers. To consider the subjective natures of both service quality estimates and confidence degree in them, the two- component Z-numbers Z = (A, B) were used. Z-numbers express more adequately the opinion of consumers. The proposed and computationally efficient approach (Z-SERVQUAL, Z-IPA) allows to determine the quality of services and iden- tify the factors that required improvement and the areas for further development. The suggested method was applied to evaluate the service quality in small and medium-sized hotels in Turkey and Azerbaijan, illustrated by the example

An Initial Framework Assessing the Safety of Complex Systems

Trabajo presentado en la Conference on Complex Systems, celebrada online del 7 al 11 de diciembre de 2020.Atmospheric blocking events, that is large-scale nearly stationary atmospheric pressure patterns, are often associated with extreme weather in the mid-latitudes, such as heat waves and cold spells which have significant consequences on ecosystems, human health and economy. The high impact of blocking events has motivated numerous studies. However, there is not yet a comprehensive theory explaining their onset, maintenance and decay and their numerical prediction remains a challenge. In recent years, a number of studies have successfully employed complex network descriptions of fluid transport to characterize dynamical patterns in geophysical flows. The aim of the current work is to investigate the potential of so called Lagrangian flow networks for the detection and perhaps forecasting of atmospheric blocking events. The network is constructed by associating nodes to regions of the atmosphere and establishing links based on the flux of material between these nodes during a given time interval. One can then use effective tools and metrics developed in the context of graph theory to explore the atmospheric flow properties. In particular, Ser-Giacomi et al. [1] showed how optimal paths in a Lagrangian flow network highlight distinctive circulation patterns associated with atmospheric blocking events. We extend these results by studying the behavior of selected network measures (such as degree, entropy and harmonic closeness centrality)at the onset of and during blocking situations, demonstrating their ability to trace the spatio-temporal characteristics of these events.This research was conducted as part of the CAFE (Climate Advanced Forecasting of sub-seasonal Extremes) Innovative Training Network which has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under the Marie Skłodowska-Curie grant agreement No. 813844

Models and analysis of vocal emissions for biomedical applications

This book of Proceedings collects the papers presented at the 3rd International Workshop on Models and Analysis of Vocal Emissions for Biomedical Applications, MAVEBA 2003, held 10-12 December 2003, Firenze, Italy. The workshop is organised every two years, and aims to stimulate contacts between specialists active in research and industrial developments, in the area of voice analysis for biomedical applications. The scope of the Workshop includes all aspects of voice modelling and analysis, ranging from fundamental research to all kinds of biomedical applications and related established and advanced technologies

Recent Application in Biometrics

In the recent years, a number of recognition and authentication systems based on biometric measurements have been proposed. Algorithms and sensors have been developed to acquire and process many different biometric traits. Moreover, the biometric technology is being used in novel ways, with potential commercial and practical implications to our daily activities. The key objective of the book is to provide a collection of comprehensive references on some recent theoretical development as well as novel applications in biometrics. The topics covered in this book reflect well both aspects of development. They include biometric sample quality, privacy preserving and cancellable biometrics, contactless biometrics, novel and unconventional biometrics, and the technical challenges in implementing the technology in portable devices. The book consists of 15 chapters. It is divided into four sections, namely, biometric applications on mobile platforms, cancelable biometrics, biometric encryption, and other applications. The book was reviewed by editors Dr. Jucheng Yang and Dr. Norman Poh. We deeply appreciate the efforts of our guest editors: Dr. Girija Chetty, Dr. Loris Nanni, Dr. Jianjiang Feng, Dr. Dongsun Park and Dr. Sook Yoon, as well as a number of anonymous reviewers

Recent Development of Hybrid Renewable Energy Systems

Abstract: The use of renewable energies continues to increase. However, the energy obtained from renewable resources is variable over time. The amount of energy produced from the renewable energy sources (RES) over time depends on the meteorological conditions of the region chosen, the season, the relief, etc. So, variable power and nonguaranteed energy produced by renewable sources implies intermittence of the grid. The key lies in supply sources integrated to a hybrid system (HS)

Towards a Conceptual Design of an Intelligent Material Transport Based on Machine Learning and Axiomatic Design Theory

Reliable and efficient material transport is one of the basic requirements that affect productivity in sheet metal industry. This paper presents a methodology for conceptual design of intelligent material transport using mobile robot, based on axiomatic design theory, graph theory and artificial intelligence. Developed control algorithm was implemented and tested on the mobile robot system Khepera II within the laboratory model of manufacturing environment. Matlab© software package was used for manufacturing process simulation, implementation of search algorithms and neural network training. Experimental results clearly show that intelligent mobile robot can learn and predict optimal material transport flows thanks to the use of artificial neural networks. Achieved positioning error of mobile robot indicates that conceptual design approach can be used for material transport and handling tasks in intelligent manufacturing systems