Modeling the Pleistocene History of the Greenland Ice Sheet

One of the most profound and immediate consequences of anthropogenic climate change is sea level rise, which in large part is driven by the melting of polar ice sheets. The Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) contains enough ice to raise global sea level by ~7 meters. Fluctuations of the GrIS in response to past climate change provide an opportunity to better understanding the stability of the ice sheet during periods of climatic change. In this thesis, we use numerical ice-sheet models to understand the causes and consequences of past fluctuations of the Greenland ice sheet. In Chapters 3 and 4, we examined the last deglaciation (21,000 years ago until present day). The last deglaciation is the most recent time when the ice sheet retreated significantly, shrinking from its advanced state during the Last Glacial Maximum to a minimum configuration slightly smaller than the present-day ice sheet. We evaluate simulations of the deglaciation against a database of observations in order to understand the causes and drivers of ice-sheet retreat around the margin of the ice sheet for different climate scenarios. In Chapter 3, we show how abrupt climate change and changes in seasonality affected different regions of the ice sheet by modulating the timing of deglaciation around the margin. In Chapter 4, we analyze the mass balance processes that drove retreat in each region in order to identify the most salient drivers of retreat for each major drainage of the GrIS. Chapters 3 and 4 are in preparation for publication. In Chapter 5, we studied the initiation of the ice sheet during the warm Pliocene. We show that early fluctuations of the ice sheet can lead to the development of a large proglacial lake, which has major implications for landscape evolution, abrupt climate change, and ice-sheet stability during the Pliocene and Pleistocene. These proglacial lakes have the potential to affect erosional processes, and we argue that they may be responsible for carving Petermann canyon, a geomorphological feature which has important implications for future ice-sheet stability. Chapter 5 has been submitted for publication. In Chapter 6, we used different proxy records from the high Arctic to examine GrIS stability over the last 800,000 years. We show that proxy records from Lake El’gygytgyn (Arctic Siberia) and IODP Site 982 (North Atlantic Ocean) lead to divergent ice sheet histories which are nevertheless consistent with recent sea-level targets and the observation of cosmogenic nuclides in the bedrock below central Greenland. This study demonstrates the potential for numerical ice-sheet models to be used to assist with the identification of locales where additional data constraints could have the largest impact on our understanding of the history of the ice sheet. Chapter 6 is in preparation for publication

Relationship between Greenland Ice Sheet surface speed and modeled effective pressure

Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2018. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface 123 (2018): 2258-2278, doi:10.1029/2017JF004581.We use a numerical subglacial hydrology model and remotely sensed observations of Greenland Ice Sheet surface motion to test whether the inverse relationship between effective pressure and regional melt season surface speeds observed at individual sites holds on a regional scale. The model is forced with daily surface runoff estimates for 2009 and 2010 across an ~8,000‐km2 region on the western margin. The overall subglacial drainage system morphology develops similarly in both years, with subglacial channel networks growing inland from the ice sheet margin and robust subglacial pathways forming over bedrock ridges. Modeled effective pressures are compared to contemporaneous regional surface speeds derived from TerraSAR‐X imagery to investigate spatial relationships. Our results show an inverse spatial relationship between effective pressure and ice speed in the mid‐melt season, when surface speeds are elevated, indicating that effective pressure is the dominant control on surface velocities in the mid‐melt season. By contrast, in the early and late melt seasons, when surface speeds are slower, effective pressure and surface speed have a positive relationship. Our results suggest that outside of the mid‐melt season, the influence of effective pressures on sliding speeds may be secondary to the influence of driving stress and spatially variable bed roughness.National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). Grant Number: NXX10AI30G National Science Foundation (NSF) American Geophysical Union Horton Research Grant; National Science Foundation Graduate Research Fellowship; National Science Foundation's Office of Polar Programs (NSF‐OPP) Grant Numbers: PLR‐1418256, ARC‐1023364, ARC‐0520077; Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution's Ocean and Climate Change Institute (OCCI)2019-03-2

Common Era sea-level budgets along the U.S. Atlantic coast

Sea-level budgets account for the contributions of processes driving sea-level change, but are predominantly focused on global-mean sea level and limited to the 20th and 21st centuries. Here we estimate site-specific sea-level budgets along the U.S. Atlantic coast during the Common Era (0-2000 CE) by separating relative sea-level (RSL) records into process-related signals on different spatial scales. Regional-scale, temporally linear processes driven by glacial isostatic adjustment dominate RSL change and exhibit a spatial gradient, with fastest rates of rise in southern New Jersey (1.6 ± 0.02 mm yr-1). Regional and local, temporally non-linear processes, such as ocean/atmosphere dynamics and groundwater withdrawal, contributed between -0.3 and 0.4 mm yr-1 over centennial timescales. The most significant change in the budgets is the increasing influence of the common global signal due to ice melt and thermal expansion since 1800 CE, which became a dominant contributor to RSL with a 20th century rate of 1.3 ± 0.1 mm yr-1

A Second Large Subglacial Impact Crater in Northwest Greenland?

Following the discovery of the Hiawatha impact crater beneath the northwest margin of the Greenland Ice Sheet, we explored satellite and aerogeophysical data in search of additional such craters. Here we report the discovery of a possible second subglacial impact crater that is 36.5 km wide and 183 km southeast of the Hiawatha impact crater. Although buried by 2 km of ice, the structure's rim induces a conspicuously circular surface expression, it possesses a central uplift and it causes a negative gravity anomaly. The existence of two closely-spaced and similarlysized complex craters raises the possibility that they formed during related impact events. However, the second structure's morphology is shallower, its overlying ice is conformal and older, and such an event can be explained by chance. We conclude that the identified structure is very likely an impact crater, but it is unlikely to be a twin of the Hiawatha impact crater

UNRAVELING SHORT-TERM VARIATIONS IN TIDEWATER GLACIER FLOW: INSIGHTS FROM TERRESTRIAL RADAR INTERFEROMETRIC STUDIES

Tidewater glaciers are fast-flowing valley glaciers that advect ice from the interior of ice sheets to the ocean. Processes along the submarine boundaries of tidewater glacier termini can trigger a dynamic response in glacier ice that can impact stability along the terminus. Predictions of 21st century sea level rise require a comprehensive understanding of tidewater glacier dynamics over a variety of spatial and temporal scales. Perturbations to the calving front, such as iceberg calving, tidal modulations, changes in proglacial ice mélange strength and rigidity, and the subglacial discharge of meltwater occur on time-scales that exceed temporal resolution of satellite measurements; thus, little is known about the dynamic response of glaciers to these processes. Terrestrial radar interferometry is a relatively new technology that measures millimeter scale surface deformation with a spatial resolution comparable to satellites, but at much higher temporal resolution. Here, I use terrestrial radar interferometers to measure short-term variations in speed and surface elevation along Jakobshavn Isbræ, Greenland and Columbia Glacier, Alaska. I find that small calving events can trigger large, dynamic changes in speed and ice thickness. I present observations that show that glacier response to calving events is a consequence of two competing feedbacks: (1) an increase in strain rates leads to dynamic thinning and faster flow, thereby promoting destabilization, whereas (2) an increase in flow rates advects thick ice toward the terminus and promotes restabilization. The competition between these feedbacks depends on temporal and spatial variations in the glacier’s proximity to flotation. I also present the first field evidence of a granular ice mélange influence on iceberg calving, which has implications for calving rates, the speed and thickness of the terminus, and consequently tidewater glacier stability. Finally, I present observations of a large increase in speed along Columbia Glacier in response to a precipitation event. The results demonstrate the importance that variations in basal hydrology have on sliding along the bed, and more importantly how changes in the subglacial hydrology can affect the response of a tidewater glacier to tidal fluctuations

Speleothem Paleoclimatology for the Caribbean, Central America, and North America

Speleothem oxygen isotope records from the Caribbean, Central, and North America reveal climatic controls that include orbital variation, deglacial forcing related to ocean circulation and ice sheet retreat, and the influence of local and remote sea surface temperature variations. Here, we review these records and the global climate teleconnections they suggest following the recent publication of the Speleothem Isotopes Synthesis and Analysis (SISAL) database. We find that low-latitude records generally reflect changes in precipitation, whereas higher latitude records are sensitive to temperature and moisture source variability. Tropical records suggest precipitation variability is forced by orbital precession and North Atlantic Ocean circulation driven changes in atmospheric convection on long timescales, and tropical sea surface temperature variations on short timescales. On millennial timescales, precipitation seasonality in southwestern North America is related to North Atlantic climate variability. Great Basin speleothem records are closely linked with changes in Northern Hemisphere summer insolation. Although speleothems have revealed these critical global climate teleconnections, the paucity of continuous records precludes our ability to investigate climate drivers from the whole of Central and North America for the Pleistocene through modern. This underscores the need to improve spatial and temporal coverage of speleothem records across this climatically variable region

Dynamic changes at tidewater glacier termini in central west Greenland

The Greenland Ice Sheet rapidly lost mass over the last two decades, in part due to increases in ice loss from termini of large tidewater glaciers. Terminus melting and calving can drive glacier retreat and the pattern of ice sheet mass loss through reductions in resistive stresses near the glacier front and, in turn, increases in ice flow to the ocean. Despite their importance to ice sheet mass balance, factors controlling terminus positions are poorly constrained in ice sheet models, which fundamentally obscures sea level rise predictions. In this dissertation, I use a suite of novel observations and techniques to quantify controls on frontal ablation and terminus positions at tidewater glaciers in central west Greenland. Until recently, frontal ablation processes were obscured due to limited observations of submarine termini. Here, I use observations from multibeam echo sonar to show the morphological complexity of the submarine terminus face and identify previously unrecognized melting and calving processes. The terminus features numerous secondary subglacial plume outlets outside of the main subglacial channel system that drive and disperse large submarine melt rates across the glacier front. Submarine melting drives steep, localized terminus undercutting that can trigger calving by connecting to finely-spaced surface crevasses. In turn, large calving events cause the terminus face to become anomalously overcut. Incorporating observed outlet geometries in a numerical plume model, I estimate small subglacial discharge fluxes feeding secondary plume outlets that are reminiscent of a distributed subglacial network. Regional remote-sensing observations reveal that, for most glaciers in central west Greenland, seasonal terminus positions are more sensitive to glacial runoff than ice mélange or ocean thermal forcing. Shallow, serac-failing tidewater glaciers are most sensitive, where subglacial plumes melt the terminus and locally enhance retreat. Glaciers with large ice fluxes and deep termini retreat sporadically through full ice-thickness calving events less dependent on runoff. Together, these results provide process-oriented constraints on the shape of the submarine terminus face, the geometry of subglacial discharge and submarine melting, the influence of environmental forcing mechanisms and the impact that these variables have on terminus positions and dynamics in a warming climate.Geological Science

Global and Regional Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the United States

The Sea Level Rise and Coastal Flood Hazard Scenarios and Tools Interagency Task Force, jointly convened by the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) and the National Ocean Council (NOC), began its work in August 2015. The Task Force has focused its efforts on three primary tasks: 1) updating scenarios of global mean sea level (GMSL) rise, 2) integrating the global scenarios with regional factors contributing to sea level change for the entire U.S. coastline, and 3) incorporating these regionally appropriate scenarios within coastal risk management tools and capabilities deployed by individual agencies in support of the needs of specific stakeholder groups and user communities. This technical report focuses on the first two of these tasks and reports on the production of gridded relative sea level (RSL, which includes both ocean-level change and vertical land motion) projections for the United States associated with an updated set of GMSL scenarios. In addition to supporting the longer-term Task Force effort, this new product will be an important input into the USGCRP Sustained Assessment process and upcoming Fourth National Climate Assessment (NCA4) due in 2018. This report also serves as a key technical input into the in-progress USGCRP Climate Science Special Report (CSSR)