Predicting customer's gender and age depending on mobile phone data

In the age of data driven solution, the customer demographic attributes, such as gender and age, play a core role that may enable companies to enhance the offers of their services and target the right customer in the right time and place. In the marketing campaign, the companies want to target the real user of the GSM (global system for mobile communications), not the line owner. Where sometimes they may not be the same. This work proposes a method that predicts users' gender and age based on their behavior, services and contract information. We used call detail records (CDRs), customer relationship management (CRM) and billing information as a data source to analyze telecom customer behavior, and applied different types of machine learning algorithms to provide marketing campaigns with more accurate information about customer demographic attributes. This model is built using reliable data set of 18,000 users provided by SyriaTel Telecom Company, for training and testing. The model applied by using big data technology and achieved 85.6% accuracy in terms of user gender prediction and 65.5% of user age prediction. The main contribution of this work is the improvement in the accuracy in terms of user gender prediction and user age prediction based on mobile phone data and end-to-end solution that approaches customer data from multiple aspects in the telecom domain

Knowing Your Population: Privacy-Sensitive Mining of Massive Data

Location and mobility patterns of individuals are important to environmental planning, societal resilience, public health, and a host of commercial applications. Mining telecommunication traffic and transactions data for such purposes is controversial, in particular raising issues of privacy. However, our hypothesis is that privacy-sensitive uses are possible and often beneficial enough to warrant considerable research and development efforts. Our work contends that peoples behavior can yield patterns of both significant commercial, and research, value. For such purposes, methods and algorithms for mining telecommunication data to extract commonly used routes and locations, articulated through time-geographical constructs, are described in a case study within the area of transportation planning and analysis. From the outset, these were designed to balance the privacy of subscribers and the added value of mobility patterns derived from their mobile communication traffic and transactions data. Our work directly contrasts the current, commonly held notion that value can only be added to services by directly monitoring the behavior of individuals, such as in current attempts at location-based services. We position our work within relevant legal frameworks for privacy and data protection, and show that our methods comply with such requirements and also follow best-practice

An analytical framework to nowcast well-being using mobile phone data

An intriguing open question is whether measurements made on Big Data recording human activities can yield us high-fidelity proxies of socio-economic development and well-being. Can we monitor and predict the socio-economic development of a territory just by observing the behavior of its inhabitants through the lens of Big Data? In this paper, we design a data-driven analytical framework that uses mobility measures and social measures extracted from mobile phone data to estimate indicators for socio-economic development and well-being. We discover that the diversity of mobility, defined in terms of entropy of the individual users' trajectories, exhibits (i) significant correlation with two different socio-economic indicators and (ii) the highest importance in predictive models built to predict the socio-economic indicators. Our analytical framework opens an interesting perspective to study human behavior through the lens of Big Data by means of new statistical indicators that quantify and possibly "nowcast" the well-being and the socio-economic development of a territory

The Quest for a Killer App for Opportunistic and Delay Tolerant Networks (Invited Paper)

Delay Tolerant Networking (DTN) has attracted a lot of attention from the research community in recent years. Much work have been done regarding network architectures and algorithms for routing and forwarding in such networks. At the same time as many show enthusiasm for this exciting new research area there are also many sceptics, who question the usefulness of research in this area. In the past, we have seen other research areas become over-hyped and later die out as there was no killer app for them that made them useful in real scenarios. Real deployments of DTN systems have so far mostly been limited to a few niche scenarios, where they have been done as proof-of-concept field tests in research projects. In this paper, we embark upon a quest to find out what characterizes a potential killer applications for DTNs. Are there applications and situations where DTNs provide services that could not be achieved otherwise, or have potential to do it in a better way than other techniques? Further, we highlight some of the main challenges that needs to be solved to realize these applications and make DTNs a part of the mainstream network landscape

Developing Travel Behaviour Models Using Mobile Phone Data

Improving the performance and efficiency of transport systems requires sound decision-making supported by data and models. However, conducting travel surveys to facilitate travel behaviour model estimation is an expensive venture. Hence, such surveys are typically infrequent in nature, and cover limited sample sizes. Furthermore, the quality of such data is often affected by reporting errors and changes in the respondents’ behaviour due to awareness of being observed. On the other hand, large and diverse quantities of time-stamped location data are nowadays passively generated as a by-product of technological growth. These passive data sources include Global Positioning System (GPS) traces, mobile phone network records, smart card data and social media data, to name but a few. Among these, mobile phone network records (i.e. call detail records (CDRs) and Global Systems for Mobile Communication (GSM) data) offer the biggest promise due to the increasing mobile phone penetration rates in both the developed and the developing worlds. Previous studies using mobile phone data have primarily focused on extracting travel patterns and trends rather than establishing mathematical relationships between the observed behaviour and the causal factors to predict the travel behaviour in alternative policy scenarios. This research aims to extend the application of mobile phone data to travel behaviour modelling and policy analysis by augmenting the data with information derived from other sources. This comes along with significant challenges stemming from the anonymous and noisy nature of the data. Consequently, novel data fusion and modelling frameworks have been developed and tested for different modelling scenarios to demonstrate the potential of this emerging low-cost data source. In the context of trip generation, a hybrid modelling framework has been developed to account for the anonymous nature of CDR data. This involves fusing the CDR and demographic data of a sub-sample of the users to estimate a demographic prediction sub-model based on phone usage variables extracted from the data. The demographic group membership probabilities from this model are then used as class weights in a latent class model for trip generation based on trip rates extracted from the GSM data of the same users. Once estimated, the hybrid model can be applied to probabilistically infer the socio-demographics, and subsequently, the trip generation of a large proportion of the population where only large-scale anonymous CDR data is available as an input. The estimation and validation results using data from Switzerland show that the hybrid model competes well against a typical trip generation model estimated using data with known socio-demographics of the users. The hybrid framework can be applied to other travel behaviour modelling contexts using CDR data (in mode or route choice for instance). The potential of CDR data to capture rational route choice behaviour for long-distance inter-regional O-D pairs (joined by highly overlapping routes) is demonstrated through data fusion with information on the attributes of the alternatives extracted from multiple external sources. The effect of location discontinuities in CDR data (due to its event-driven nature), and how this impacts the ability to observe the users’ trajectories in a highly overlapping network is discussed prompting the development of a route identification algorithm that distinguishes between unique and broad sub-group route choices. The broad choice framework, which was developed in the context of vehicle type choice is then adapted to leverage this limitation where unique route choices cannot be observed for some users, and only the broad sub-groups of the possible overlapping routes are identifiable. The estimation and validation results using data from Senegal show that CDR data can capture rational route choice behaviour, as well as reasonable value of travel time estimates. Still relying on data fusion, a novel method based on the mixed logit framework is developed to enable the analysis of departure time choice behaviour using passively collected data (GSM and GPS data) where the challenge is to deal with the lack of information on the desired times of travel. The proposed method relies on data fusion with travel time information extracted from Google Maps in the context of Switzerland. It is unique in the sense that it allows the modeller to understand the sensitivity attached to schedule delay, thus enabling its valuation, despite the passive nature of the data. The model results are in line with the expected travel behaviour, and the schedule delay valuation estimates are reasonable for the study area. Finally, a joint trip generation modelling framework fusing CDR, household travel survey, and census data is developed. The framework adjusts the scaling factors of a traditional trip generation model (based on household travel survey data only) to optimise model performance at both the disaggregate and aggregate levels. The framework is calibrated using data from Bangladesh and the adjusted models are found to have better spatial and temporal transferability. Thus, besides demonstrating the potential of mobile phone data, the thesis makes significant methodological and applied contributions. The use of different datasets provides rich insights that can inform policy measures related to the adoption of big data for transport studies. The research findings are particularly timely for transport agencies and practitioners working in contexts with severe data limitations (especially in developing countries), as well as academics generally interested in exploring the potential of emerging big data sources, both in transport and beyond