Corporate Downsizing to Rebuild Team Spirit: How Costly Voting Can Foster Cooperation

We propose a new mechanism to achieve coordination through voting, for which we discuss a number of real-life applications. Among them, the mechanism provides for a new theory for downsizing in organizations. A crisis may lead to a decrease in the willingness to cooperate in an organization, and therefore to a bad equilibrium. A consensual downsizing episode may signal credibly that survivors are willing to cooperate, and thus, it may be optimal and efficiency-enhancing (for the individuals remaining in the organization), as the empirical evidence suggests. A variation of the same mechanism leads to “efficient” upsizing.Publicad

Stacking-based uncertainty modelling of statistical and machine learning methods for residential property valuation

Estimating real estate prices helps to adapt informed policies to regulate the real estate market and assist sellers and buyers to have a fair business. This study aims to estimate the price of residential properties in District 5 of Tehran, Capital of Iran, and model its associated uncertainty. The study implements the Stacking technique to model uncertainties by integrating the outputs of basic models. Basic models must have a good performance for their combinations to have acceptable results. This study employs four statistical and machine learning models as basic models: Random Forest (RF), Ordinary Least Squares (OLS), Weighted K-Nearest Neighbour (WKNN), and Support Vector Regression (SVR) to estimate the price of residential properties. The results show that the integrated output is more accurate for the quadruple combination mode than for any of the binary and triple combinations of the basic models. Comparing the Stacking technique with the Voting technique, it is shown that the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) reduces from 10.18% to 9.81%. Hence we conclude that our method performs better than the Voting technique.</p

The logic of the CAP: Politics or Economics?

Distorted incentives, agricultural and trade policy reforms, national agricultural development, Agricultural and Food Policy, International Relations/Trade, F13, F14, Q17, Q18,

Voting Power in the EU Council of Ministers and Fair Decision Making in Distributive Politics

We analyze and evaluate the different decision rules describing the Council of Ministers of the EU starting from 1958 up to date. All the existing studies use the Banzhaf index (for binary voting) or the Shapley-Shubik index (for distributive politics). We argue that the nucleolus can be considered an appropriate power measure in distributive situations and an alternative to the Shapley-Shubik index. We then calculate the nucleolus and compare the results of our calculations with the conventional measures. In the second part, we analyze the power of the European citizens as measured by the nucleolus under the egalitarian criterion proposed by Felsenthal and Machover (1998), and characterize the first best situation. Based on these results we propose a methodology for the design of the optimal (fair) decision rules. We perform the optimization exercise for the earlier stages of the EU within a restricted domain of voting rules, and conclude that Germany should receive more than the other three large countries under the optimal voting rule.

DRAC: Diabetic Retinopathy Analysis Challenge with Ultra-Wide Optical Coherence Tomography Angiography Images

Computer-assisted automatic analysis of diabetic retinopathy (DR) is of great importance in reducing the risks of vision loss and even blindness. Ultra-wide optical coherence tomography angiography (UW-OCTA) is a non-invasive and safe imaging modality in DR diagnosis system, but there is a lack of publicly available benchmarks for model development and evaluation. To promote further research and scientific benchmarking for diabetic retinopathy analysis using UW-OCTA images, we organized a challenge named "DRAC - Diabetic Retinopathy Analysis Challenge" in conjunction with the 25th International Conference on Medical Image Computing and Computer Assisted Intervention (MICCAI 2022). The challenge consists of three tasks: segmentation of DR lesions, image quality assessment and DR grading. The scientific community responded positively to the challenge, with 11, 12, and 13 teams from geographically diverse institutes submitting different solutions in these three tasks, respectively. This paper presents a summary and analysis of the top-performing solutions and results for each task of the challenge. The obtained results from top algorithms indicate the importance of data augmentation, model architecture and ensemble of networks in improving the performance of deep learning models. These findings have the potential to enable new developments in diabetic retinopathy analysis. The challenge remains open for post-challenge registrations and submissions for benchmarking future methodology developments

Augmented Human Machine Intelligence for Distributed Inference

With the advent of the internet of things (IoT) era and the extensive deployment of smart devices and wireless sensor networks (WSNs), interactions of humans and machine data are everywhere. In numerous applications, humans are essential parts in the decision making process, where they may either serve as information sources or act as the final decision makers. For various tasks including detection and classification of targets, detection of outliers, generation of surveillance patterns and interactions between entities, seamless integration of the human and the machine expertise is required where they simultaneously work within the same modeling environment to understand and solve problems. Efficient fusion of information from both human and sensor sources is expected to improve system performance and enhance situational awareness. Such human-machine inference networks seek to build an interactive human-machine symbiosis by merging the best of the human with the best of the machine and to achieve higher performance than either humans or machines by themselves. In this dissertation, we consider that people often have a number of biases and rely on heuristics when exposed to different kinds of uncertainties, e.g., limited information versus unreliable information. We develop novel theoretical frameworks for collaborative decision making in complex environments when the observers may include both humans and physics-based sensors. We address fundamental concerns such as uncertainties, cognitive biases in human decision making and derive human decision rules in binary decision making. We model the decision-making by generic humans working in complex networked environments that feature uncertainties, and develop new approaches and frameworks facilitating collaborative human decision making and cognitive multi-modal fusion. The first part of this dissertation exploits the behavioral economics concept Prospect Theory to study the behavior of human binary decision making under cognitive biases. Several decision making systems involving humans\u27 participation are discussed, and we show the impact of human cognitive biases on the decision making performance. We analyze how heterogeneity could affect the performance of collaborative human decision making in the presence of complex correlation relationships among the behavior of humans and design the human selection strategy at the population level. Next, we employ Prospect Theory to model the rationality of humans and accurately characterize their behaviors in answering binary questions. We design a weighted majority voting rule to solve classification problems via crowdsourcing while considering that the crowd may include some spammers. We also propose a novel sequential task ordering algorithm to improve system performance for classification in crowdsourcing composed of unreliable human workers. In the second part of the dissertation, we study the behavior of cognitive memory limited humans in binary decision making and develop efficient approaches to help memory constrained humans make better decisions. We show that the order in which information is presented to the humans impacts their decision making performance. Next, we consider the selfish behavior of humans and construct a unified incentive mechanism for IoT based inference systems while addressing the selfish concerns of the participants. We derive the optimal amount of energy that a selfish sensor involved in the signal detection task must spend in order to maximize a certain utility function, in the presence of buyers who value the result of signal detection carried out by the sensor. Finally, we design a human-machine collaboration framework that blends both machine observations and human expertise to solve binary hypothesis testing problems semi-autonomously. In networks featuring human-machine teaming/collaboration, it is critical to coordinate and synthesize the operations of the humans and machines (e.g., robots and physical sensors). Machine measurements affect human behaviors, actions, and decisions. Human behavior defines the optimal decision-making algorithm for human-machine networks. In today\u27s era of artificial intelligence, we not only aim to exploit augmented human-machine intelligence to ensure accurate decision making; but also expand intelligent systems so as to assist and improve such intelligence