How Do You Feel, Developer? An Explanatory Theory of the Impact of Affects on Programming Performance

Affects---emotions and moods---have an impact on cognitive activities and the working performance of individuals. Development tasks are undertaken through cognitive processes, yet software engineering research lacks theory on affects and their impact on software development activities. In this paper, we report on an interpretive study aimed at broadening our understanding of the psychology of programming in terms of the experience of affects while programming, and the impact of affects on programming performance. We conducted a qualitative interpretive study based on: face-to-face open-ended interviews, in-field observations, and e-mail exchanges. This enabled us to construct a novel explanatory theory of the impact of affects on development performance. The theory is explicated using an established taxonomy framework. The proposed theory builds upon the concepts of events, affects, attractors, focus, goals, and performance. Theoretical and practical implications are given.Comment: 24 pages, 2 figures. Postprin

Text-based Sentiment Analysis and Music Emotion Recognition

Nowadays, with the expansion of social media, large amounts of user-generated texts like tweets, blog posts or product reviews are shared online. Sentiment polarity analysis of such texts has become highly attractive and is utilized in recommender systems, market predictions, business intelligence and more. We also witness deep learning techniques becoming top performers on those types of tasks. There are however several problems that need to be solved for efficient use of deep neural networks on text mining and text polarity analysis. First of all, deep neural networks are data hungry. They need to be fed with datasets that are big in size, cleaned and preprocessed as well as properly labeled. Second, the modern natural language processing concept of word embeddings as a dense and distributed text feature representation solves sparsity and dimensionality problems of the traditional bag-of-words model. Still, there are various uncertainties regarding the use of word vectors: should they be generated from the same dataset that is used to train the model or it is better to source them from big and popular collections that work as generic text feature representations? Third, it is not easy for practitioners to find a simple and highly effective deep learning setup for various document lengths and types. Recurrent neural networks are weak with longer texts and optimal convolution-pooling combinations are not easily conceived. It is thus convenient to have generic neural network architectures that are effective and can adapt to various texts, encapsulating much of design complexity. This thesis addresses the above problems to provide methodological and practical insights for utilizing neural networks on sentiment analysis of texts and achieving state of the art results. Regarding the first problem, the effectiveness of various crowdsourcing alternatives is explored and two medium-sized and emotion-labeled song datasets are created utilizing social tags. One of the research interests of Telecom Italia was the exploration of relations between music emotional stimulation and driving style. Consequently, a context-aware music recommender system that aims to enhance driving comfort and safety was also designed. To address the second problem, a series of experiments with large text collections of various contents and domains were conducted. Word embeddings of different parameters were exercised and results revealed that their quality is influenced (mostly but not only) by the size of texts they were created from. When working with small text datasets, it is thus important to source word features from popular and generic word embedding collections. Regarding the third problem, a series of experiments involving convolutional and max-pooling neural layers were conducted. Various patterns relating text properties and network parameters with optimal classification accuracy were observed. Combining convolutions of words, bigrams, and trigrams with regional max-pooling layers in a couple of stacks produced the best results. The derived architecture achieves competitive performance on sentiment polarity analysis of movie, business and product reviews. Given that labeled data are becoming the bottleneck of the current deep learning systems, a future research direction could be the exploration of various data programming possibilities for constructing even bigger labeled datasets. Investigation of feature-level or decision-level ensemble techniques in the context of deep neural networks could also be fruitful. Different feature types do usually represent complementary characteristics of data. Combining word embedding and traditional text features or utilizing recurrent networks on document splits and then aggregating the predictions could further increase prediction accuracy of such models

Optimising Emotions, Incubating Falsehoods: How to Protect the Global Civic Body from Disinformation and Misinformation

This open access book deconstructs the core features of online misinformation and disinformation. It finds that the optimisation of emotions for commercial and political gain is a primary cause of false information online. The chapters distil societal harms, evaluate solutions, and consider what must be done to strengthen societies as new biometric forms of emotion profiling emerge. Based on a rich, empirical, and interdisciplinary literature that examines multiple countries, the book will be of interest to scholars and students of Communications, Journalism, Politics, Sociology, Science and Technology Studies, and Information Science, as well as global and local policymakers and ordinary citizens interested in how to prevent the spread of false information worldwide, both now and in the future

Stock Prediction Analyzing Investor Sentiments

We are going through a phase of data evolution where a major portion of the data from our daily lives is now been stored on social media platforms. In recent years, social media has become ubiquitous and important for social networking and content sharing. Sentiment analysis and opinion mining is the field of study that analyzes people's opinions, sentiments, evaluations, attitudes, and emotions from written language. In the financial sector, sentiments are also of paramount importance, and this dissertation mainly focuses on the effect of sentiments from investors [3] on the behavior of stocks. The dissertation work leverages social data from Twitter and seeks the sentiment of certain investors. Once the sentiment of the tweets is calculated using an advanced sentiment analyzer, it is used as an additional attribute to the other fundamental properties of the stock. This dissertation demonstrates how incorporating the sentiments improves forecasting accuracy of predicting stock valuation. In addition, various experimental analysis on regression based statistical models are considered which show statistical measures to consider for effectively predicting the closing price of the stock. The Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) states that stock market prices are largely driven by additional information and follow a random walk pattern [7, 8, 37, 39, 41]. Though this hypothesis is widely accepted by the research community as a central paradigm governing the markets in general, several people have attempted to extract patterns in the way stock markets behave and respond to external stimuli. We test a hypothesis based on the premise of behavioral economics, that the emotions and moods of individuals basically the sentiments affect their decision-making process, thus, leading to a direct correlation between ?public sentiment? and ?market sentiment? [42, 43, 44, 45]. We first select key investors from Twitter [27, 28] whose sentiments matter and do sentiment analysis on the tweets pertaining to stock related information. Once we retrieve the sentiment for every stock, we combine this information with the other fundamental information about stocks and build different regression-based prediction models to predict their closing price

Application of Common Sense Computing for the Development of a Novel Knowledge-Based Opinion Mining Engine

The ways people express their opinions and sentiments have radically changed in the past few years thanks to the advent of social networks, web communities, blogs, wikis and other online collaborative media. The distillation of knowledge from this huge amount of unstructured information can be a key factor for marketers who want to create an image or identity in the minds of their customers for their product, brand, or organisation. These online social data, however, remain hardly accessible to computers, as they are specifically meant for human consumption. The automatic analysis of online opinions, in fact, involves a deep understanding of natural language text by machines, from which we are still very far. Hitherto, online information retrieval has been mainly based on algorithms relying on the textual representation of web-pages. Such algorithms are very good at retrieving texts, splitting them into parts, checking the spelling and counting their words. But when it comes to interpreting sentences and extracting meaningful information, their capabilities are known to be very limited. Existing approaches to opinion mining and sentiment analysis, in particular, can be grouped into three main categories: keyword spotting, in which text is classified into categories based on the presence of fairly unambiguous affect words; lexical affinity, which assigns arbitrary words a probabilistic affinity for a particular emotion; statistical methods, which calculate the valence of affective keywords and word co-occurrence frequencies on the base of a large training corpus. Early works aimed to classify entire documents as containing overall positive or negative polarity, or rating scores of reviews. Such systems were mainly based on supervised approaches relying on manually labelled samples, such as movie or product reviews where the opinionist’s overall positive or negative attitude was explicitly indicated. However, opinions and sentiments do not occur only at document level, nor they are limited to a single valence or target. Contrary or complementary attitudes toward the same topic or multiple topics can be present across the span of a document. In more recent works, text analysis granularity has been taken down to segment and sentence level, e.g., by using presence of opinion-bearing lexical items (single words or n-grams) to detect subjective sentences, or by exploiting association rule mining for a feature-based analysis of product reviews. These approaches, however, are still far from being able to infer the cognitive and affective information associated with natural language as they mainly rely on knowledge bases that are still too limited to efficiently process text at sentence level. In this thesis, common sense computing techniques are further developed and applied to bridge the semantic gap between word-level natural language data and the concept-level opinions conveyed by these. In particular, the ensemble application of graph mining and multi-dimensionality reduction techniques on two common sense knowledge bases was exploited to develop a novel intelligent engine for open-domain opinion mining and sentiment analysis. The proposed approach, termed sentic computing, performs a clause-level semantic analysis of text, which allows the inference of both the conceptual and emotional information associated with natural language opinions and, hence, a more efficient passage from (unstructured) textual information to (structured) machine-processable data. The engine was tested on three different resources, namely a Twitter hashtag repository, a LiveJournal database and a PatientOpinion dataset, and its performance compared both with results obtained using standard sentiment analysis techniques and using different state-of-the-art knowledge bases such as Princeton’s WordNet, MIT’s ConceptNet and Microsoft’s Probase. Differently from most currently available opinion mining services, the developed engine does not base its analysis on a limited set of affect words and their co-occurrence frequencies, but rather on common sense concepts and the cognitive and affective valence conveyed by these. This allows the engine to be domain-independent and, hence, to be embedded in any opinion mining system for the development of intelligent applications in multiple fields such as Social Web, HCI and e-health. Looking ahead, the combined novel use of different knowledge bases and of common sense reasoning techniques for opinion mining proposed in this work, will, eventually, pave the way for development of more bio-inspired approaches to the design of natural language processing systems capable of handling knowledge, retrieving it when necessary, making analogies and learning from experience

Application of Common Sense Computing for the Development of a Novel Knowledge-Based Opinion Mining Engine

The ways people express their opinions and sentiments have radically changed in the past few years thanks to the advent of social networks, web communities, blogs, wikis and other online collaborative media. The distillation of knowledge from this huge amount of unstructured information can be a key factor for marketers who want to create an image or identity in the minds of their customers for their product, brand, or organisation. These online social data, however, remain hardly accessible to computers, as they are specifically meant for human consumption. The automatic analysis of online opinions, in fact, involves a deep understanding of natural language text by machines, from which we are still very far. Hitherto, online information retrieval has been mainly based on algorithms relying on the textual representation of web-pages. Such algorithms are very good at retrieving texts, splitting them into parts, checking the spelling and counting their words. But when it comes to interpreting sentences and extracting meaningful information, their capabilities are known to be very limited. Existing approaches to opinion mining and sentiment analysis, in particular, can be grouped into three main categories: keyword spotting, in which text is classified into categories based on the presence of fairly unambiguous affect words; lexical affinity, which assigns arbitrary words a probabilistic affinity for a particular emotion; statistical methods, which calculate the valence of affective keywords and word co-occurrence frequencies on the base of a large training corpus. Early works aimed to classify entire documents as containing overall positive or negative polarity, or rating scores of reviews. Such systems were mainly based on supervised approaches relying on manually labelled samples, such as movie or product reviews where the opinionist’s overall positive or negative attitude was explicitly indicated. However, opinions and sentiments do not occur only at document level, nor they are limited to a single valence or target. Contrary or complementary attitudes toward the same topic or multiple topics can be present across the span of a document. In more recent works, text analysis granularity has been taken down to segment and sentence level, e.g., by using presence of opinion-bearing lexical items (single words or n-grams) to detect subjective sentences, or by exploiting association rule mining for a feature-based analysis of product reviews. These approaches, however, are still far from being able to infer the cognitive and affective information associated with natural language as they mainly rely on knowledge bases that are still too limited to efficiently process text at sentence level. In this thesis, common sense computing techniques are further developed and applied to bridge the semantic gap between word-level natural language data and the concept-level opinions conveyed by these. In particular, the ensemble application of graph mining and multi-dimensionality reduction techniques on two common sense knowledge bases was exploited to develop a novel intelligent engine for open-domain opinion mining and sentiment analysis. The proposed approach, termed sentic computing, performs a clause-level semantic analysis of text, which allows the inference of both the conceptual and emotional information associated with natural language opinions and, hence, a more efficient passage from (unstructured) textual information to (structured) machine-processable data. The engine was tested on three different resources, namely a Twitter hashtag repository, a LiveJournal database and a PatientOpinion dataset, and its performance compared both with results obtained using standard sentiment analysis techniques and using different state-of-the-art knowledge bases such as Princeton’s WordNet, MIT’s ConceptNet and Microsoft’s Probase. Differently from most currently available opinion mining services, the developed engine does not base its analysis on a limited set of affect words and their co-occurrence frequencies, but rather on common sense concepts and the cognitive and affective valence conveyed by these. This allows the engine to be domain-independent and, hence, to be embedded in any opinion mining system for the development of intelligent applications in multiple fields such as Social Web, HCI and e-health. Looking ahead, the combined novel use of different knowledge bases and of common sense reasoning techniques for opinion mining proposed in this work, will, eventually, pave the way for development of more bio-inspired approaches to the design of natural language processing systems capable of handling knowledge, retrieving it when necessary, making analogies and learning from experience

A Survey of Location Prediction on Twitter

Locations, e.g., countries, states, cities, and point-of-interests, are central to news, emergency events, and people's daily lives. Automatic identification of locations associated with or mentioned in documents has been explored for decades. As one of the most popular online social network platforms, Twitter has attracted a large number of users who send millions of tweets on daily basis. Due to the world-wide coverage of its users and real-time freshness of tweets, location prediction on Twitter has gained significant attention in recent years. Research efforts are spent on dealing with new challenges and opportunities brought by the noisy, short, and context-rich nature of tweets. In this survey, we aim at offering an overall picture of location prediction on Twitter. Specifically, we concentrate on the prediction of user home locations, tweet locations, and mentioned locations. We first define the three tasks and review the evaluation metrics. By summarizing Twitter network, tweet content, and tweet context as potential inputs, we then structurally highlight how the problems depend on these inputs. Each dependency is illustrated by a comprehensive review of the corresponding strategies adopted in state-of-the-art approaches. In addition, we also briefly review two related problems, i.e., semantic location prediction and point-of-interest recommendation. Finally, we list future research directions.Comment: Accepted to TKDE. 30 pages, 1 figur

THE DESIGN OF A NETWORK-BASED MODEL FOR BUSINESS PERFORMANCE PREDICTION

While much research work has been devoted to analysis and prediction of individuals’ behavior in social networks, very few studies about the analysis of business networks are conducted. Empowered by recent research on automated mining of business networks, this paper illustrates the design of a novel business network-based model called Energy Cascading Model (ECM) for the analysis and prediction of business performance using the proxies of stock prices. More specifically, the proposed prediction model takes into account both influential business relationships and twitter sentiments of firms to infer their stock price movements. Our empirical experiments based on a publicly available financial corpus and social media postings reveal that the proposed ECM model is effective for the prediction of directional stock price movements. The business implication of our research is that business managers can apply our design artifacts to more effectively analyze and predict the potential business performance of targeted firms