The role of science in physical natural hazard assessment : report to the UK Government by the Natural Hazard Working Group

Following the tragic Asian tsunami on 26 December 2004, the Prime Minister asked the Government’s Chief Scientific Adviser, Sir David King, to convene a group of experts (the Natural Hazard Working Group) to advise on the mechanisms that could and should be established for the detection and early warning of global physical natural hazards. 2. The Group was asked to examine physical hazards which have high global or regional impact and for which an appropriate early warning system could be put in place. It was also asked to consider the global natural hazard frameworks currently in place and under development and their effectiveness in using scientific evidence; to consider whether there is an existing appropriate international body to pull together the international science community to advise governments on the systems that need to be put in place, and to advise on research needed to fill current gaps in knowledge. The Group was asked to make recommendations on whether a new body was needed, or whether other arrangements would be more effective

An Assessment of PIER Electric Grid Research 2003-2014 White Paper

This white paper describes the circumstances in California around the turn of the 21st century that led the California Energy Commission (CEC) to direct additional Public Interest Energy Research funds to address critical electric grid issues, especially those arising from integrating high penetrations of variable renewable generation with the electric grid. It contains an assessment of the beneficial science and technology advances of the resultant portfolio of electric grid research projects administered under the direction of the CEC by a competitively selected contractor, the University of California’s California Institute for Energy and the Environment, from 2003-2014

DroughtScape- Summer 2014

CONTENTS Director’s report...........................1 Outlook ........................................ 2 Drought & climate summary ........ 2 Drought impacts .........................4 International drought monitoring and planning ...............................8 Visiting scholars.........................10 North American Drought Monitor Forum ........................................ 11 New primary Dust Bowl source .............. 12 New additions to online webinar archive ....................................... 14 Community Capitals Framework Institute ...................................... 1

Load Disaggregation Using One-Directional Convolutional Stacked Long Short-Term Memory Recurrent Neural Network

Reliable information about the active loads in the energy system allows for effective and optimized energy management. An important aspect of intelligent energy monitoring system is load disaggregation. The proliferation of direct current (dc) loads has spurred the increasing research interest in extra low voltage (ELV) dc grids. Artificial intelligence, such as deep learning algorithms of stacked recurrent neural network (RNN), improved results on a variety of regression and classification tasks. This paper proposes a 1-D convolutional stacked long short-term memory RNN technique for the bottom-up approach in load disaggregation using single sensor multiple loads ELV dc picogrids. This eliminates the requirement for communication and intelligence on every load in the grid. The proposed technique was applied on two different dc picogrids to test the algorithm's robustness. The proposed technique produced excellent result of over 98% accuracy for smart loads and over 99% accuracy for dumb loads in ELV dc picogrid

ICT and the Environment in Developing Countries: an Overview of Opportunities and Developments

Both developed and developing countries face many environmental challenges, including climate change, improving energy efficiency and waste management, addressing air pollution, water quality and scarcity, and loss of natural habitats and biodiversity. Drawing on the existing literature, this paper presents an overview of how the Internet and the ICT and related research communities can help tackle environmental challenges in developing countries. The review focuses on the role of ICTs in climate change mitigation, mitigating other environmental pressures, and climate change adaptation.information and communication technology (ICT), environment, climate change, mitigation, adaptation.

IoT Load Classification and Anomaly Warning in ELV DC Pico-grids using Hierarchical Extended k-Nearest Neighbors

The remote monitoring of electrical systems has progressed beyond the need of knowing how much energy is consumed. As the maintenance procedure has evolved from reactive to preventive to predictive, there is a growing demand to know what appliances reside in the circuit (classification) and a need to know whether any appliance requires attention and maintenance (anomaly warning). Targeting at the increasing penetration of dc appliances and equipment in households and offices, the described low-cost solution consists of multiple distributed slave meters with a single master computer for extra low voltage dc pico-grids. The slave meter acquires the current and voltage waveform from the cable of interest, conditions the data and extracts four features per window block that are sent remotely to the master computer. The proposed solution uses a hierarchical extended k-nearest neighbors (HE-kNN) technique that exploits the use of distance in kNN algorithm and considers a window block instead of individual data point for classification and anomaly warning to trigger the attention of the user. This solution can be used as an ad hoc standalone investigation of suspicious circuit or further expanded to several circuits in a building or vicinity to monitor the network. The solution can also be implemented as part of an Internet of Things application. This paper presents the successful implementation of HE-kNN technique in three different circuits: lightings, air-conditioning and multiple load dc pico-grids with accuracy of over 93%. Its performance is superior over other anomaly warning techniques with the same set of data

Technologies for climate change adaptation: agricultural sector

This Guidebook presents a selection of technologies for climate change adaptation in the agricultural sector. A set of twenty two adaptation technologies are showcased that are primarily based on the principals of agroecology, but also include scientific technologies of climate and biological sciences complemented with important sociological and institutional capacity building processes that are required to make adaptation function. The technologies cover monitoring and forecasting the climate, sustainable water use and management, soil management, sustainable crop management, seed conservation, sustainable forest management and sustainable livestock management. Technologies that tend to homogenize the natural environment and agricultural production have low possibilities of success in conditions of environmental stress that are likely to result from climate change. On the other hand, technologies that allow for, and indeed promote, diversity are more likely to provide a strategy which strengthens agricultural production in the face of uncertain future climate change scenarios. In this sense, the twenty two technologies showcased in this Guidebook have been selected because they facilitate the conservation and restoration of diversity while at the same time providing opportunities for increasing agricultural productivity. Many of these technologies are not new to agricultural production practices, but they are implemented based on assessment of current and possible future impacts of climate change in a particular location. Agro-ecology is an approach that encompasses concepts of sustainable production and biodiversity promotion and therefore provides a useful framework for identifying and selecting appropriate adaptation technologies for the agricultural sector. The Guidebook provides a systematic analysis of the most relevant information available on climate change adaptation technologies in the agriculture sector. It has been compiled based on a literature review of key publications, journal articles, and e-platforms, and by drawing on documented experiences sourced from a range of organizations working on projects and programmes concerned with climate change adaptation technologies in the agricultural sector. Its geographic scope is focused on developing countries where high levels of poverty, agricultural production, climate variability and biological diversity currently intersect. Key concepts around climate change adaptation are not universally agreed. It is therefore important to understand local contexts – especially social and cultural norms - when working with national and sub-national stakeholders to make informed decisions about appropriate technology options. Thus, decision-making processes should be participative, facilitated, and consensus-building oriented and should be based on the following key guiding principles: increasing awareness and knowledge, strengthening institutions, protecting natural resources, providing financial assistance and developing context-specific strategies. For decision-making the Community–Based Adaptation framework is proposed for creating inclusive governance that engages a range of stakeholders directly with local or district government and national coordinating bodies, and facilitates participatory planning, monitoring and implementation of adaptation activities. Seven criteria are suggested for the prioritization of adaptation technologies: (i) The extent to which the technology maintains or strengthens biological diversity and is environmentally sustainable; (ii) The extent to which the technology facilitates access to information systems and awareness of climate change information; (iii) Whether the technology support water, carbon and nutrient cycles and enables stable and/or increased productivity; (iv) Income-generating potential, cost-benefit analysis and contribution to improved equity; (v) Respect for cultural diversity and facilitation of inter-cultural exchange; (vi) Potential for integration into regional and national policies and can be scaled-up; (vii) The extent to which the technology builds formal and information institutions and social networks. Finally, recommendations are set out for practitioners and policy makers: • There is an urgent need for improved climate modelling and forecasting which can provide a basis for informed decision-making and the implementation of adaptation strategies. This should include traditional knowledge. • Information is also required to better understand the behaviour of plants, animals, pests and diseases as they react to climate change. • Potential changes in economic and social systems in the future under different climate scenarios should also be investigated so that the implications of adaptation strategy and planning choices are better understood. • It is important to secure effective flows of information through appropriate dissemination channels. This is vital for building adaptive capacity and decision-making processes. • Improved analysis of adaptation technologies is required to show how they can contribute to building adaptive capacity and resilience in the agricultural sector. This information needs to be compiled and disseminated for a range of stakeholders from local to national level. • Relationships between policy makers, researchers and communities should be built so that technologies and planning processes are developed in partnership, responding to producers’ needs and integrating their knowledge

Establishment of a novel predictive reliability assessment strategy for ship machinery

There is no doubt that recent years, maritime industry is moving forward to novel and sophisticated inspection and maintenance practices. Nowadays maintenance is encountered as an operational method, which can be employed both as a profit generating process and a cost reduction budget centre through an enhanced Operation and Maintenance (O&M) strategy. In the first place, a flexible framework to be applicable on complex system level of machinery can be introduced towards ship maintenance scheduling of systems, subsystems and components.;This holistic inspection and maintenance notion should be implemented by integrating different strategies, methodologies, technologies and tools, suitably selected by fulfilling the requirements of the selected ship systems. In this thesis, an innovative maintenance strategy for ship machinery is proposed, namely the Probabilistic Machinery Reliability Assessment (PMRA) strategy focusing towards the reliability and safety enhancement of main systems, subsystems and maintainable units and components.;In this respect, the combination of a data mining method (k-means), the manufacturer safety aspects, the dynamic state modelling (Markov Chains), the probabilistic predictive reliability assessment (Bayesian Belief Networks) and the qualitative decision making (Failure Modes and Effects Analysis) is employed encompassing the benefits of qualitative and quantitative reliability assessment. PMRA has been clearly demonstrated in two case studies applied on offshore platform oil and gas and selected ship machinery.;The results are used to identify the most unreliability systems, subsystems and components, while advising suitable practical inspection and maintenance activities. The proposed PMRA strategy is also tested in a flexible sensitivity analysis scheme.There is no doubt that recent years, maritime industry is moving forward to novel and sophisticated inspection and maintenance practices. Nowadays maintenance is encountered as an operational method, which can be employed both as a profit generating process and a cost reduction budget centre through an enhanced Operation and Maintenance (O&M) strategy. In the first place, a flexible framework to be applicable on complex system level of machinery can be introduced towards ship maintenance scheduling of systems, subsystems and components.;This holistic inspection and maintenance notion should be implemented by integrating different strategies, methodologies, technologies and tools, suitably selected by fulfilling the requirements of the selected ship systems. In this thesis, an innovative maintenance strategy for ship machinery is proposed, namely the Probabilistic Machinery Reliability Assessment (PMRA) strategy focusing towards the reliability and safety enhancement of main systems, subsystems and maintainable units and components.;In this respect, the combination of a data mining method (k-means), the manufacturer safety aspects, the dynamic state modelling (Markov Chains), the probabilistic predictive reliability assessment (Bayesian Belief Networks) and the qualitative decision making (Failure Modes and Effects Analysis) is employed encompassing the benefits of qualitative and quantitative reliability assessment. PMRA has been clearly demonstrated in two case studies applied on offshore platform oil and gas and selected ship machinery.;The results are used to identify the most unreliability systems, subsystems and components, while advising suitable practical inspection and maintenance activities. The proposed PMRA strategy is also tested in a flexible sensitivity analysis scheme