Non-systemic transmission of tick-borne diseases: a network approach

Tick-Borne diseases can be transmitted via non-systemic (NS) transmission. This occurs when tick gets the infection by co-feeding with infected ticks on the same host resulting in a direct pathogen transmission between the vectors, without infecting the host. This transmission is peculiar, as it does not require any systemic infection of the host. The NS transmission is the main efficient transmission for the persistence of the Tick-Borne Encephalitis virus in nature. By describing the heterogeneous ticks aggregation on hosts through a \hyphenation{dynamical} bipartite graphs representation, we are able to mathematically define the NS transmission and to depict the epidemiological conditions for the pathogen persistence. Despite the fact that the underlying network is largely fragmented, analytical and computational results show that the larger is the variability of the aggregation, and the easier is for the pathogen to persist in the population.Comment: 15 pages, 4 figures, to be published in Communications in Nonlinear Science and Numerical Simulatio

Optimizing surveillance for livestock disease spreading through animal movements

The spatial propagation of many livestock infectious diseases critically depends on the animal movements among premises; so the knowledge of movement data may help us to detect, manage and control an outbreak. The identification of robust spreading features of the system is however hampered by the temporal dimension characterizing population interactions through movements. Traditional centrality measures do not provide relevant information as results strongly fluctuate in time and outbreak properties heavily depend on geotemporal initial conditions. By focusing on the case study of cattle displacements in Italy, we aim at characterizing livestock epidemics in terms of robust features useful for planning and control, to deal with temporal fluctuations, sensitivity to initial conditions and missing information during an outbreak. Through spatial disease simulations, we detect spreading paths that are stable across different initial conditions, allowing the clustering of the seeds and reducing the epidemic variability. Paths also allow us to identify premises, called sentinels, having a large probability of being infected and providing critical information on the outbreak origin, as encoded in the clusters. This novel procedure provides a general framework that can be applied to specific diseases, for aiding risk assessment analysis and informing the design of optimal surveillance systems.Comment: Supplementary Information at https://sites.google.com/site/paolobajardi/Home/archive/optimizing_surveillance_ESM_l.pdf?attredirects=

Complex network analysis and nonlinear dynamics

This chapter aims at reviewing complex network and nonlinear dynamical models and methods that were either developed for or applied to socioeconomic issues, and pertinent to the theme of New Economic Geography. After an introduction to the foundations of the field of complex networks, the present summary introduces some applications of complex networks to economics, finance, epidemic spreading of innovations, and regional trade and developments. The chapter also reviews results involving applications of complex networks to other relevant socioeconomic issue

Graph Theory and Networks in Biology

In this paper, we present a survey of the use of graph theoretical techniques in Biology. In particular, we discuss recent work on identifying and modelling the structure of bio-molecular networks, as well as the application of centrality measures to interaction networks and research on the hierarchical structure of such networks and network motifs. Work on the link between structural network properties and dynamics is also described, with emphasis on synchronization and disease propagation.Comment: 52 pages, 5 figures, Survey Pape

Tuning the average path length of complex networks and its influence to the emergent dynamics of the majority-rule model

We show how appropriate rewiring with the aid of Metropolis Monte Carlo computational experiments can be exploited to create network topologies possessing prescribed values of the average path length (APL) while keeping the same connectivity degree and clustering coefficient distributions. Using the proposed rewiring rules we illustrate how the emergent dynamics of the celebrated majority-rule model are shaped by the distinct impact of the APL attesting the need for developing efficient algorithms for tuning such network characteristics.Comment: 10 figure

Detecting the Influence of Spreading in Social Networks with Excitable Sensor Networks

Detecting spreading outbreaks in social networks with sensors is of great significance in applications. Inspired by the formation mechanism of human's physical sensations to external stimuli, we propose a new method to detect the influence of spreading by constructing excitable sensor networks. Exploiting the amplifying effect of excitable sensor networks, our method can better detect small-scale spreading processes. At the same time, it can also distinguish large-scale diffusion instances due to the self-inhibition effect of excitable elements. Through simulations of diverse spreading dynamics on typical real-world social networks (facebook, coauthor and email social networks), we find that the excitable senor networks are capable of detecting and ranking spreading processes in a much wider range of influence than other commonly used sensor placement methods, such as random, targeted, acquaintance and distance strategies. In addition, we validate the efficacy of our method with diffusion data from a real-world online social system, Twitter. We find that our method can detect more spreading topics in practice. Our approach provides a new direction in spreading detection and should be useful for designing effective detection methods

Early warning signs for saddle-escape transitions in complex networks

Many real world systems are at risk of undergoing critical transitions, leading to sudden qualitative and sometimes irreversible regime shifts. The development of early warning signals is recognized as a major challenge. Recent progress builds on a mathematical framework in which a real-world system is described by a low-dimensional equation system with a small number of key variables, where the critical transition often corresponds to a bifurcation. Here we show that in high-dimensional systems, containing many variables, we frequently encounter an additional non-bifurcative saddle-type mechanism leading to critical transitions. This generic class of transitions has been missed in the search for early-warnings up to now. In fact, the saddle-type mechanism also applies to low-dimensional systems with saddle-dynamics. Near a saddle a system moves slowly and the state may be perceived as stable over substantial time periods. We develop an early warning sign for the saddle-type transition. We illustrate our results in two network models and epidemiological data. This work thus establishes a connection from critical transitions to networks and an early warning sign for a new type of critical transition. In complex models and big data we anticipate that saddle-transitions will be encountered frequently in the future.Comment: revised versio