7,692 research outputs found
Robust modeling of human contact networks across different scales and proximity-sensing techniques
The problem of mapping human close-range proximity networks has been tackled
using a variety of technical approaches. Wearable electronic devices, in
particular, have proven to be particularly successful in a variety of settings
relevant for research in social science, complex networks and infectious
diseases dynamics. Each device and technology used for proximity sensing (e.g.,
RFIDs, Bluetooth, low-power radio or infrared communication, etc.) comes with
specific biases on the close-range relations it records. Hence it is important
to assess which statistical features of the empirical proximity networks are
robust across different measurement techniques, and which modeling frameworks
generalize well across empirical data. Here we compare time-resolved proximity
networks recorded in different experimental settings and show that some
important statistical features are robust across all settings considered. The
observed universality calls for a simplified modeling approach. We show that
one such simple model is indeed able to reproduce the main statistical
distributions characterizing the empirical temporal networks
Understanding HIV/AIDS in the African Context
This book of readings is intended for courses in Global Health. The editors asked Prof. Stillwaggon to contribute a chapter summarizing her years of work on the spread of HIV/AIDS in populations among whom bacterial, fungal, parasitic, and viral diseases are extremely common, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. Her work has demonstrated that differences in behavior cannot explain differences in HIV rates between world regions
Epidemic spreading on preferred degree adaptive networks
We study the standard SIS model of epidemic spreading on networks where
individuals have a fluctuating number of connections around a preferred degree
. Using very simple rules for forming such preferred degree networks,
we find some unusual statistical properties not found in familiar
Erd\H{o}s-R\'{e}nyi or scale free networks. By letting depend on the
fraction of infected individuals, we model the behavioral changes in response
to how the extent of the epidemic is perceived. In our models, the behavioral
adaptations can be either `blind' or `selective' -- depending on whether a node
adapts by cutting or adding links to randomly chosen partners or selectively,
based on the state of the partner. For a frozen preferred network, we find that
the infection threshold follows the heterogeneous mean field result
and the phase diagram matches the predictions of
the annealed adjacency matrix (AAM) approach. With `blind' adaptations,
although the epidemic threshold remains unchanged, the infection level is
substantially affected, depending on the details of the adaptation. The
`selective' adaptive SIS models are most interesting. Both the threshold and
the level of infection changes, controlled not only by how the adaptations are
implemented but also how often the nodes cut/add links (compared to the time
scales of the epidemic spreading). A simple mean field theory is presented for
the selective adaptations which capture the qualitative and some of the
quantitative features of the infection phase diagram.Comment: 21 pages, 7 figure
INDEMICS: An Interactive High-Performance Computing Framework for Data Intensive Epidemic Modeling
We describe the design and prototype implementation of Indemics (_Interactive; Epi_demic; _Simulation;)—a modeling environment utilizing high-performance computing technologies for supporting complex epidemic simulations. Indemics can support policy analysts and epidemiologists interested in planning and control of pandemics. Indemics goes beyond traditional epidemic simulations by providing a simple and powerful way to represent and analyze policy-based as well as individual-based adaptive interventions. Users can also stop the simulation at any point, assess the state of the simulated system, and add additional interventions. Indemics is available to end-users via a web-based interface.
Detailed performance analysis shows that Indemics greatly enhances the capability and productivity of simulating complex intervention strategies with a marginal decrease in performance. We also demonstrate how Indemics was applied in some real case studies where complex interventions were implemented
Challenges in Complex Systems Science
FuturICT foundations are social science, complex systems science, and ICT.
The main concerns and challenges in the science of complex systems in the
context of FuturICT are laid out in this paper with special emphasis on the
Complex Systems route to Social Sciences. This include complex systems having:
many heterogeneous interacting parts; multiple scales; complicated transition
laws; unexpected or unpredicted emergence; sensitive dependence on initial
conditions; path-dependent dynamics; networked hierarchical connectivities;
interaction of autonomous agents; self-organisation; non-equilibrium dynamics;
combinatorial explosion; adaptivity to changing environments; co-evolving
subsystems; ill-defined boundaries; and multilevel dynamics. In this context,
science is seen as the process of abstracting the dynamics of systems from
data. This presents many challenges including: data gathering by large-scale
experiment, participatory sensing and social computation, managing huge
distributed dynamic and heterogeneous databases; moving from data to dynamical
models, going beyond correlations to cause-effect relationships, understanding
the relationship between simple and comprehensive models with appropriate
choices of variables, ensemble modeling and data assimilation, modeling systems
of systems of systems with many levels between micro and macro; and formulating
new approaches to prediction, forecasting, and risk, especially in systems that
can reflect on and change their behaviour in response to predictions, and
systems whose apparently predictable behaviour is disrupted by apparently
unpredictable rare or extreme events. These challenges are part of the FuturICT
agenda
Complex network analysis and nonlinear dynamics
This chapter aims at reviewing complex network and nonlinear dynamical
models and methods that were either developed for or applied to socioeconomic
issues, and pertinent to the theme of New Economic Geography. After an introduction
to the foundations of the field of complex networks, the present summary
introduces some applications of complex networks to economics, finance, epidemic
spreading of innovations, and regional trade and developments. The chapter also
reviews results involving applications of complex networks to other relevant
socioeconomic issue
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A quantitative narrative on movement, disease and patch exploitation in nesting agent groups
Abstract Animal relocation data has recently become considerably more ubiquitous, finely structured (collection frequencies measured in minutes) and co-variate rich (physiology of individuals, environmental and landscape information, and accelerometer data). To better understand the impacts of ecological interactions, individual movement and disease on global change ecology, including wildlife management and conservation, it is important to have simulators that will provide demographic, movement, and epidemiology null models against which to compare patterns observed in empirical systems. Such models may then be used to develop quantitative narratives that enhance our intuition and understanding of the relationship between population structure and generative processes: in essence, along with empirical and experimental narratives, quantitative narratives are used to advance ecological epistemology. Here we describe a simulator that accounts for the influence of consumer-resource interactions, existence of social groups anchored around a central location, territoriality, group-switching behavior, and disease dynamics on population size. We use this simulator to develop new and reinforce existing quantitative narratives and point out areas for future study. Author summary The health and viability of species are of considerable concern to all nature lovers. Population models are central to our efforts to assess the numerical and ecological status of species and threats posed by climate change. Models, however, are crude caricatures of complex ecological systems. So how do we construct reliable assessment models able to capture processes essential to predicating the impacts of global change on population viability without getting tied up in their vast complexities? We broach this question and demonstrate how models focusing at the level of the individual (i.e., agent-based models) are tools for developing robust, narratives to augment narratives arising purely from empirical data sources and experimental outcomes. We do this in the context of nesting social groups, foraging for food, while exhibiting territoriality and group-switching behavior; and, we evaluate the impact of disease on the viability of such populations
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