Uncertainty in Integrated Regional Models

This paper examines the nature of uncertainty in integrated econometric+input-output (ECIO) regional models. We focus on three sources of uncertainty: [a] econometric model parameter uncertainty; [b] econometric disturbance term uncertainty; and [c] input-output coefficient uncertainty. Through a series of Monte Carlo simulations we analyze the relative importance of each component as well as the question of how their interaction may propagate through the integrated model to affect the distributions of the endogenous variables. Our results suggest that there is no simple answer to the question of which source of uncertainty is most important in an integrated model. Instead, that answer is conditioned upon the focus of the analysis and whether the industry specific or macro level variables are of central concerns.regional econometric model, input-output, integrated, uncertainty

An Econometric Input-Output Model of the West German Economy

This paper describes an econometric input-output model of the economy of the Federal Republic of Germany having 51 sectors, together with a forecast made using the model. Most of the data for the model comes from the Rheinische-Westfalische Institut fuer Wirtschaftsforschung in Essen. The model presented here is now part of the INFORUM system of dynamic input-output models. Equations have been estimated to explain 46 categories of consumer expenditure, investment demands (plant and equipment separated) for 34 industries, exports for 51 industries, imports and inventory change for 51 industries. Equations to forecast input-output coefficients have been estimated. Forecasts of prices and incomes have not been made and are now left as future work

ECIO Model Operators Guide

The National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL)/ West Virginia University (WVU) Econometric Input-Output (ECIO) model is a time-series enabled hybrid econometric input-output (IO) model that combines the capabilities of econometric modeling with the strengths of IO modeling. The model was developed and designed specifically for estimating the income and employment impacts of the development and deployment of new energy technologies over a given forecast period. The ECIO model consists of a macroeconomic econometric model of the United States (U.S.) national economy and an inter-industry model that reflects the interdependence of all the industries in the economy. These two components have three modules and several sub-modules of interrelated equations for the U.S. economy, with employment and income detail for 32 industrial sectors. This document is designed to escort a user with little computing or programing experience through the processes of setting up the ECIO model application to run on a personal computer (PC). The document will guide user through the various stages of the ECIO model with screenshots and instructions. Using this guide and standardized input data files (in .csv format) that are generated by the NETL NEMS-ECIO Translation Tool, users should be able run the model to generate estimates of deployment scenario impacts

Extending the Macroeconomic Impacts Forecasting Capabilities of the National Energy Modeling System

To comprehensively model the macroeconomic impacts that result from changes in long-term energy-economy forecasts, the United States Department of Energy’s National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) partnered with West Virginia University’s (WVU) Regional Research Institute to develop the NETL/WVU econometric input-output (ECIO) model. The NETL/WVU ECIO model is an impacts forecasting model that functions as an extension of the U.S. energy-economic models available from the United States (U.S.) Energy Information Administration’s National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s Market Allocation (MARKAL) model. The ECIO model integrates a macroeconomic econometric forecasting model and an input-output accounting framework along derived forecast scenarios detailing a baseline of the U.S. energy-economy and an alternative forecast on how power generation resources can meet future levels of energy demand to generate estimates of the impacts to gross domestic product, employment, and labor income. This manuscript provides an overview of the model design, assumptions, and standard outputs

An Econometric Model of the South Dakota Economy

The purpose of this study is to adapt and develop a methodology of practical statewide macroeconomic analysis that is an alternative to the construction of a statewide input-output econometric model. The three objectives of this study are: 1. To present an annual stochastic econometric model of the South Dakota economy which is an adaptation of Daniel B. Suits’ 1962 annual stochastic econometric model of the United States economy; 2. To demonstrate the model’s use as an effective instrument by which state economic performance can be forecast; 3. To begin exploration of the model’s implications for the economic impact which selected exogenous economic policies may have on the state economy

Regional economic modelling: evaluating existing methods and models for constructing an Irish prototype

This paper provides an overview of competing and supplementing methodologies for modelling the regional economic dynamics. The discussion provides a primer on how regional CGE, Econometric, Input-Output and SAM based models work towards capturing the region-specific, interregional and multiregional production, consumption and factor market patterns. An analysis of virtues and limitations of these alternate methodologies suggests that it may be the considerations such as the data collection/compilation, expected output, research objectives and costs involved that may determine the choice of modelling framework. Several existing regional models constructed for other countries and their characteristics are summarized along with the specific discussion on regional economic impact analysis in Ireland and how one could move towards constructing an Irish prototype.Input Output; Social Accounting Matrix; Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Model;

Innovation Input-Output Analysis of African Countries

Given the importance of innovation in global competitiveness, this study aims to analyze the relationship between innovation input-output in African countries from 2009 to 2017, determining the degree of significance of each input on the output. With data collected from the Global Innovation Index, an Econometric random Fixed effect model was run revealing a negative insignificant effect of institutions on innovation, a positive insignificant effect of human capital on innovation, a positive insignificant effect of infrastructures on innovation, a positive significant effect of market sophistication on innovation, and finally a positive significant effect of business sophistication on innovation. Keywords: Innovation, input-output, African countries. DOI: 10.7176/JAAS/54-09 Publication date: April 30th 2019

An Econometric Analysis of Investment in Hungary

Input-output analysis has found widespread empirical application, in studies of how certain industrial sectors react to changes in national and international economic conditions and in static and dynamic investigations of the interrelationships between industries. Since 1979 IIASA has been consistently active in this field, primarily through extensive collaboration with the Inter-Industry Forecasting Program (INFORUM) coordinated at the University of Maryland by Clopper Almon and Douglas Nyhus. IIASA's aims have been to further the development of econometric input-output models, to assist in the linkage of national models, and to participate in and extend the international network of collaborating scientists. To date, eighteen national models have been installed at IIASA, the software package SLIMFORP has been distributed widely, and linked runs of some of the national models have been carried out. Furthermore, annual task force meetings on input-output modeling have served to bring together present and prospective members of the INFORUM-IIASA "family" to review progress and to exchange ideas for further work. Gerhard Fink (Vienna Institute for Comparative Economic Studies) and Andras Simon (Institute for Economic and Market Research, Budapest) are collaborating in the development of an INFORUM-type input-output model for Hungary. In this paper they describe a study of Hungarian investment policy over recent decades, dealing with both the sectoral allocation of total investment and the cyclical investment patterns observed. The results are being used in the construction of an econometric submodel of investment for the Hungarian INFORUM model

POLICY REFORM AND PRODUCTIVITY CHANGE IN CHINESE AGRICULTURE: A DISTANCE FUNCTION APPROACH

Agricultural policy reform has been an important source of change in the Chinese agricultural sector. The reforms led to productivity growth and helped China in pursuing its self- sufficiency goal especially in the grain sector. To analyse whether observable productivity growth stems from technologically induced components, or from the market induced parts, a multi-input-multi-output model is derived using an econometric distance function framework. A decomposition allows to distinguish allocative effects, scale effects, technological change, and technical efficiency change. Data on farms in Zhejiang from 1986 to 1999 are used to analyse the impact of policy reform.Agricultural and Food Policy,

Elasticities of Output Supply and Input Demand of Indonesian Foodcrops and Their Policy Implications: Multi-input Multi-output Framework*)

It is a commonly practiced that agricultural economists frame their analyses within the single commodity (multi-input single-output) framework. The problem with this framework is that this seems to be inappropriate because most agricultural production systems are characterized by multi-product farms. Motivated by this problem, this paper is aimed at providing a brief explanation on the multi-input multi-output (MI-MO) framework and applying the framework on the Indonesian food crops subsector. Based on this framework, an econometric model is specified and then estimated using the restricted seemingly unrelated regression method. Estimated cross-price elasticities obtained from the model suggest the significance of cross-effects of input or output prices on input demand or output supply, justifying the MI-MO nature of the crops. The most notable policy implication from this study is that a price policy on either outputs or inputs may not be effective. If, however, such a policy were politically desirable, it should be applied on inputs rather than on outputs because the magnitudes of the elasticities are in absolute term higher in input demands than in output supplies