Intercomparison and Assessment of Stand-Alone and Wavelet-Coupled Machine Learning Models for Simulating Rainfall-Runoff Process in Four Basins of Pothohar Region, Pakistan

The science of hydrological modeling has continuously evolved under the influence of rapid advancements in software and hardware technologies. Starting from simple rational formulae for estimating peak discharge and developing into sophisticated univariate predictive models, accurate conversion of rainfall into runoff and the assessment of inherent uncertainty has been a prime focus for researchers. Therefore, alternative data-driven methods have gained widespread attention in hydrology. Moreover, scientists often couple conventional machine learning models with data pre-processing techniques, i.e., wavelet transformation (WT), to enhance modelling accuracy. In this context, this research work attempts to explore the latent linkage between rainfall and runoff in Pothohar region of Pakistan by developing a novel linkage of five streamline techniques of machine learning, including single decision tree (SDT), decision tree forest (DTF), tree boost (TB), multilayer perceptron (MLP), and gene expression modeling (GEP), with a more sophisticated variant of WT, i.e., maximal overlap discrete wavelet transformation (MODWT), for boundary correction of the transformed components of timeseries data. This study also implements these machine learning models in a stand-alone mode for a more comprehensive comparative analysis of performances. Furthermore, the study uses a combined-basin approach that divides Pothohar region into two basins to compensate for the complex topographic division of the study area. The results indicate that MODWT-based DTF outperformed other stand-alone and hybrid models in terms of modeling accuracy. In the first scenario, considering the Bunha-Kahan River basin, MODWT-DTF yielded the highest NSE (0.86) and the lowest RMSE (220.45 mm) and R2 (0.92 at lag order 3 (Lo3)) when transformed with daubechies4 (db4) at level three. While in the Soan-Haro River basin, MODWT-DTF produced the highest accuracy modeling at lag order 4 (Lo4) (NSE = 0.88, RMSE = 21.72 m(3)/s, and R2 = 0.91). The highly accurate performance of 3- and 4-days lagged models reflects the temporal consistency in hydrological response of the study area. The comparison of simple and hybrid model performance indicates up to a 55% increase in modeling accuracy due to data pre-processing with wavelet transformation

Smart models to improve agrometeorological estimations and predictions

La población mundial, en continuo crecimiento, alcanzará de forma estimada los 9,7 mil millones de habitantes en el 2050. Este incremento, combinado con el aumento en los estándares de vida y la situación de emergencia climática (aumento de la temperatura, intensificación del ciclo del agua, etc.) nos enfrentan al enorme desafío de gestionar de forma sostenible los cada vez más escasos recursos disponibles. El sector agrícola tiene que afrontar retos tan importantes como la mejora en la gestión de los recursos naturales, la reducción de la degradación medioambiental o la seguridad alimentaria y nutricional. Todo ello condicionado por la escasez de agua y las condiciones de aridez: factores limitantes en la producción de cultivos. Para garantizar una producción agrícola sostenible bajo estas condiciones, es necesario que todas las decisiones que se tomen estén basadas en el conocimiento, la innovación y la digitalización de la agricultura de forma que se garantice la resiliencia de los agroecosistemas, especialmente en entornos áridos, semi-áridos y secos sub-húmedos en los que el déficit de agua es estructural. Por todo esto, el presente trabajo se centra en la mejora de la precisión de los actuales modelos agrometeorológicos, aplicando técnicas de inteligencia artificial. Estos modelos pueden proporcionar estimaciones y predicciones precisas de variables clave como la precipitación, la radiación solar y la evapotranspiración de referencia. A partir de ellas, es posible favorecer estrategias agrícolas más sostenibles, gracias a la posibilidad de reducir el consumo de agua y energía, por ejemplo. Además, se han reducido el número de mediciones requeridas como parámetros de entrada para estos modelos, haciéndolos más accesibles y aplicables en áreas rurales y países en desarrollo que no pueden permitirse el alto costo de la instalación, calibración y mantenimiento de estaciones meteorológicas automáticas completas. Este enfoque puede ayudar a proporcionar información valiosa a los técnicos, agricultores, gestores y responsables políticos de la planificación hídrica y agraria en zonas clave. Esta tesis doctoral ha desarrollado y validado nuevas metodologías basadas en inteligencia artificial que han ser vido para mejorar la precision de variables cruciales en al ámbito agrometeorológico: precipitación, radiación solar y evapotranspiración de referencia. En particular, se han modelado sistemas de predicción y rellenado de huecos de precipitación a diferentes escalas utilizando redes neuronales. También se han desarrollado modelos de estimación de radiación solar utilizando exclusivamente parámetros térmicos y validados en zonas con características climáticas similares a lugar de entrenamiento, sin necesidad de estar geográficamente en la misma región o país. Analógamente, se han desarrollado modelos de estimación y predicción de evapotranspiración de referencia a nivel local y regional utilizando también solamente datos de temperatura para todo el proceso: regionalización, entrenamiento y validación. Y finalmente, se ha creado una librería de Python de código abierto a nivel internacional (AgroML) que facilita el proceso de desarrollo y aplicación de modelos de inteligencia artificial, no solo enfocadas al sector agrometeorológico, sino también a cualquier modelo supervisado que mejore la toma de decisiones en otras áreas de interés.The world population, which is constantly growing, is estimated to reach 9.7 billion people in 2050. This increase, combined with the rise in living standards and the climate emergency situation (increase in temperature, intensification of the water cycle, etc.), presents us with the enormous challenge of managing increasingly scarce resources in a sustainable way. The agricultural sector must face important challenges such as improving natural resource management, reducing environmental degradation, and ensuring food and nutritional security. All of this is conditioned by water scarcity and aridity, limiting factors in crop production. To guarantee sustainable agricultural production under these conditions, it is necessary to based all the decision made on knowledge, innovation, and the digitization of agriculture to ensure the resilience of agroecosystems, especially in arid, semi-arid, and sub-humid dry environments where water deficit is structural. Therefore, this work focuses on improving the precision of current agrometeorological models by applying artificial intelligence techniques. These models can provide accurate estimates and predictions of key variables such as precipitation, solar radiation, and reference evapotranspiration. This way, it is possible to promote more sustainable agricultural strategies by reducing water and energy consumption, for example. In addition, the number of measurements required as input parameters for these models has been reduced, making them more accessible and applicable in rural areas and developing countries that cannot afford the high cost of installing, calibrating, and maintaining complete automatic weather stations. This approach can help provide valuable information to technicians, farmers, managers, and policy makers in key wáter and agricultural planning areas. This doctoral thesis has developed and validated new methodologies based on artificial intelligence that have been used to improve the precision of crucial variables in the agrometeorological field: precipitation, solar radiation, and reference evapotranspiration. Specifically, prediction systems and gap-filling models for precipitation at different scales have been modeled using neural networks. Models for estimating solar radiation using only thermal parameters have also been developed and validated in areas with similar climatic characteristics to the training location, without the need to be geographically in the same region or country. Similarly, models for estimating and predicting reference evapotranspiration at the local and regional level have been developed using only temperature data for the entire process: regionalization, training, and validation. Finally, an internationally open-source Python library (AgroML) has been created to facilitate the development and application of artificial intelligence models, not only focused on the agrometeorological sector but also on any supervised model that improves decision-making in other areas of interest

Temporal Feature Selection with Symbolic Regression

Building and discovering useful features when constructing machine learning models is the central task for the machine learning practitioner. Good features are useful not only in increasing the predictive power of a model but also in illuminating the underlying drivers of a target variable. In this research we propose a novel feature learning technique in which Symbolic regression is endowed with a ``Range Terminal\u27\u27 that allows it to explore functions of the aggregate of variables over time. We test the Range Terminal on a synthetic data set and a real world data in which we predict seasonal greenness using satellite derived temperature and snow data over a portion of the Arctic. On the synthetic data set we find Symbolic regression with the Range Terminal outperforms standard Symbolic regression and Lasso regression. On the Arctic data set we find it outperforms standard Symbolic regression, fails to beat the Lasso regression, but finds useful features describing the interaction between Land Surface Temperature, Snow, and seasonal vegetative growth in the Arctic

Flood Forecasting Using Machine Learning Methods

This book is a printed edition of the Special Issue Flood Forecasting Using Machine Learning Methods that was published in Wate

Comparison of predictions of daily evapotranspiration based on climate variables using different data mining and empirical methods in various climates of Iran

To accurately manage water resources, a precise prediction of reference evapotranspiration (ETref) is necessary. The best empirical equations to determine ETref are usually the temperature-based Baier and Robertson (BARO), the radiation-based Jensen and Haise (JEHA), and the mass transfer-based Penman (PENM) ones. Two machine learning (ML) models were used: least squares support vector regression (LSSVR) and ANFIS optimized using the particle swarm optimization algorithm (ANFPSO). These models were applied to the daily ETref at 100 synoptic stations for different climates of Iran. Performance of studied models was evaluated by the correlation coefficient (R), coefficient of determination (R2), mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE), scatter index (SI) and the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE). The combination-based ML models (LSSVR4 and ANFPSO4) had the lowest error (RMSE = 0.34–2.85 mm d−1) and the best correlation (R = 0.66–0.99). The temperature-based empirical relationships had more precision than the radiation- and mass transfer-based empirical equations

Stochastic model genetic programming: Deriving pricing equations for rainfall weather derivatives

Rainfall derivatives are in their infancy since starting trading on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) in 2011. Being a relatively new class of financial instruments there is no generally recognised pricing framework used within the literature. In this paper, we propose a novel Genetic Programming (GP) algorithm for pricing contracts. Our novel algorithm, which is called Stochastic Model GP (SMGP), is able to generate and evolve stochastic equations of rainfall, which allows us to probabilistically transform rainfall predictions from the risky world to the risk-neutral world. In order to achieve this, SMGP's representation allows its individuals to comprise of two weighted parts, namely a seasonal component and an autoregressive component. To create the stochastic nature of an equation for each SMGP individual, we estimate the weights by using a probabilistic approach. We evaluate the models produced by SMGP in terms of rainfall predictive accuracy and in terms of pricing performance on 42 cities from Europe and the USA. We compare SMGP to 8 methods: its predecessor DGP, 5 well-known machine learning methods (M5 Rules, M5 Model trees, k-Nearest Neighbors, Support Vector Regression, Radial Basis Function), and two statistical methods, namely AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Monte Carlo Rainfall Prediction (MCRP). Results show that the proposed algorithm is able to statistically outperform all other algorithms

Prediction of daily water level using new hybridized GS-GMDH and ANFIS-FCM models

Accurate prediction of water level (WL) is essential for the optimal management of different water resource projects. The development of a reliable model for WL prediction remains a challenging task in water resources management. In this study, novel hybrid models, namely, Generalized Structure�Group Method of Data Handling (GS-GMDH) and Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System with Fuzzy C-Means (ANFIS-FCM) were proposed to predict the daily WL at Telom and Bertam stations located in Cameron Highlands of Malaysia. Different percentage ratio for data division i.e. 50%–50% (scenario�1), 60%–40% (scenario-2), and 70%–30% (scenario-3) were adopted for training and testing of these models. To show the efficiency of the proposed hybrid models, their results were compared with the standalone models that include the Gene Expression Programming (GEP) and Group Method of Data Handling (GMDH). The results of the investigation revealed that the hybrid GS-GMDH and ANFIS-FCM models outperformed the standalone GEP and GMDH models for the prediction of daily WL at both study sites. In addition, the results indicate the best performance for WL prediction was obtained in scenario-3 (70%–30%). In summary, the results highlight the better suitability and supremacy of the proposed hybrid GS-GMDH and ANFIS-FCM models in daily WL prediction, and can, serve as robust and reliable predictive tools for the study regio

Selection of parameters to predict dew point temperature in arid lands using Grey theory: a case study of Iran

Dew point is the temperature at which water vapor in the air condenses into liquid with the same rate it evaporates. Dew point study is important in arid lands with low rainfall, also in other regions with various hydrological and climatological conditions. In this study, the Grey theory is applied for the first time to propose a framework approach to identify the important parameters affecting the prediction of dew point temperature. The ability of Grey theory to estimate and rank the parameters of a problem with missing data and uncertain conditions means that it has a good potential for mentioned application. For this research, 8 parameters are selected using literature review including: global solar radiation on a horizontal surface (H), water vapor pressure (VP), atmospheric pressure (P), sunshine duration (n), minimum air temperature (Tmin), maximum air temperature (Tmax), average air temperature (Tavg), and Relative Humidity (RH). The study is conducted for the city of Abadeh in Iran by using the data pertaining to a 10 year period between 2005 and 2015. The findings show that RH, Tavg, P, Tmax, Tmin, H, n and Vp with the grey possibility degrees of, respectively, 0.534, 0.551, 0.608, 0.622, 0.635, 0.695, 0.697 and 0.712, are the most important and effective parameters in prediction of dew point temperature. The proposed method also prioritizes the studied parameters in the order of their effectiveness on predicted dew point temperature

Combining synthetic and observed data to enhance machine learning model performance for streamflow prediction

Machine learning (ML) models have been shown to be valuable tools employed for streamflow prediction, reporting considerable accuracy and demonstrating their potential to be part of early warning systems to mitigate flood impacts. However, one of the main drawbacks of these models is the low precision of high streamflow values and extrapolation, which are precisely the ones related to floods. Moreover, the great majority of these models are evaluated considering all the data to be equally relevant, regardless of the imbalanced nature of the streamflow records, where the proportion of high values is small but the most important. Consequently, this study tackles these issues by adding synthetic data to the observed training set of a regression-enhanced random forest model to increase the number of high streamflow values and introduce extrapolated cases. The synthetic data are generated with the physically based model Iber for synthetic precipitations of different return periods. To contrast the results, this model is compared to a model only fed with observed data. The performance evaluation is primarily focused on high streamflow values using scalar errors, graphically based errors and errors by event, taking into account precision, over- and underestimation, and cost-sensitivity analysis. The results show a considerable improvement in the performance of the model trained with the combination of observed and synthetic data with respect to the observed-data model regarding high streamflow values, where the root mean squared error and percentage bias decrease by 23.1% and 38.7%, respectively, for streamflow values larger than three years of return period. The utility of the model increases by 10.5%. The results suggest that the addition of synthetic precipitation events to existing records might lead to further improvements in the models.This work was funded by the Grants PID2021-122661OB-I00 funded by MCIN/AEI/ 10.13039/501100011033 and “ERDF A way of making Europe”, TED2021-129969B-C33 funded by MCIN/AEI/ 10.13039/501100011033 and the “European Union NextGenerationEU/PRTR”, CEX2018-000797-S funded by MCIN/AEI /10.13039/501100011033, and the Generalitat de Catalunya through the CERCA Program.Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version

Comparative analysis of hybrid models of firefly optimization algorithm with support vector machines and multilayer perceptron for predicting soil temperature at different depths

This research aims to model soil temperature (ST) using machine learning models of multilayer perceptron (MLP) algorithm and support vector machine (SVM) in hybrid form with the Firefly optimization algorithm, i.e. MLP-FFA and SVM-FFA. In the current study, measured ST and meteorological parameters of Tabriz and Ahar weather stations in a period of 2013–2015 are used for training and testing of the studied models with one and two days as a delay. To ascertain conclusive results for validation of the proposed hybrid models, the error metrics are benchmarked in an independent testing period. Moreover, Taylor diagrams utilized for that purpose. Obtained results showed that, in a case of one day delay, except in predicting ST at 5 cm below the soil surface (ST5cm) at Tabriz station, MLP-FFA produced superior results compared with MLP, SVM, and SVM-FFA models. However, for two days delay, MLP-FFA indicated increased accuracy in predicting ST5cm and ST 20cm of Tabriz station and ST10cm of Ahar station in comparison with SVM-FFA. Additionally, for all of the prescribed models, the performance of the MLP-FFA and SVM-FFA hybrid models in the testing phase was found to be meaningfully superior to the classical MLP and SVM models