An interactive human centered data science approach towards crime pattern analysis

The traditional machine learning systems lack a pathway for a human to integrate their domain knowledge into the underlying machine learning algorithms. The utilization of such systems, for domains where decisions can have serious consequences (e.g. medical decision-making and crime analysis), requires the incorporation of human experts' domain knowledge. The challenge, however, is how to effectively incorporate domain expert knowledge with machine learning algorithms to develop effective models for better decision making. In crime analysis, the key challenge is to identify plausible linkages in unstructured crime reports for the hypothesis formulation. Crime analysts painstakingly perform time-consuming searches of many different structured and unstructured databases to collate these associations without any proper visualization. To tackle these challenges and aiming towards facilitating the crime analysis, in this paper, we examine unstructured crime reports through text mining to extract plausible associations. Specifically, we present associative questioning based searching model to elicit multi-level associations among crime entities. We coupled this model with partition clustering to develop an interactive, human-assisted knowledge discovery and data mining scheme. The proposed human-centered knowledge discovery and data mining scheme for crime text mining is able to extract plausible associations between crimes, identifying crime pattern, grouping similar crimes, eliciting co-offender network and suspect list based on spatial-temporal and behavioral similarity. These similarities are quantified through calculating Cosine, Jacquard, and Euclidean distances. Additionally, each suspect is also ranked by a similarity score in the plausible suspect list. These associations are then visualized through creating a two-dimensional re-configurable crime cluster space along with a bipartite knowledge graph. This proposed scheme also inspects the grand challenge of integrating effective human interaction with the machine learning algorithms through a visualization feedback loop. It allows the analyst to feed his/her domain knowledge including choosing of similarity functions for identifying associations, dynamic feature selection for interactive clustering of crimes and assigning weights to each component of the crime pattern to rank suspects for an unsolved crime. We demonstrate the proposed scheme through a case study using the Anonymized burglary dataset. The scheme is found to facilitate human reasoning and analytic discourse for intelligence analysis

Toward a Typology of Civil Society Actors The Case of the Movement to Change International Trade Rules and Barriers

This paper proposes a typology of civil society actors based on organizational attributes and worldviews. It then applies the typology to the movement to change international trade rules and barriers

Reasoning in criminal intelligence analysis through an argumentation theory-based framework

This thesis provides an in-depth analysis of criminal intelligence analysts’ analytical reasoning process and offers an argumentation theory-based framework as a means to support that reasoning process in software applications. Researchers have extensively researched specific areas of criminal intelligence analysts’ sensemaking and reasoning processes over the decades. However, the research is fractured across different research studies and those research studies often have high-level descriptions of how criminal intelligence analysts formulate their rationale (argument). This thesis addresses this gap by offering low level descriptions on how the reasoning-formulation process takes place. It is presented as a single framework, with supporting templates, to inform the software implementation process. Knowledge from nine experienced criminal intelligence analysts from West Midlands Police and Belgium’s Local and Federal Police forces were elicited through a semi-structured interview for study 1 and the Critical Decision Method (CDM), as part of the Cognitive Task Analysis (CTA) approach, was used for study 2 and study 3. The data analysis for study 1 made use of the Qualitative Conventional Content Analysis approach. The data analysis for study 2 made use of a mixed method approach, consisting out of Qualitative Directed Content Analysis and the Emerging Theme Approach. The data analysis for study 3 made use of the Qualitative Directed Content Analysis approach. The results from the three studies along with the concepts from the existing literature informed the construction of the argumentation theory-based framework. The evaluation study for the framework’s components made use of Paper Prototype Testing as a participatory design method over an electronic medium. The low-fidelity prototype was constructed by turning the frameworks’ components into software widgets that resembled widgets on a software application’s toolbar. Eight experienced criminal intelligence analysts from West Midlands Police and Belgium’s Local and Federal Police forces took part in the evaluation study. Participants had to construct their rationale using the available components as part of a simulated robbery crime scenario, which used real anonymised crime data from West Midlands Police force. The evaluation study made use of a Likert scale questionnaire to capture the participant’s views on how the frameworks’ components aided participants with; understanding what was going on in the analysis, lines-of-enquiry and; the changes in their level of confidence pertaining to their rationale. A non-parametric, one sample z-test was used for reporting the statistical results. The significance is at 5% (α=0.05) against a median of 3 for the z-test, where μ =3 represents neutral. The participants reported a positive experience with the framework’s components and results show that the framework’s components aided them with formulating their rationale and understanding how confident they were during different phases of constructing their rationale

Armed robbery in the southeastern states of contemporary Nigeria: a criminological analys

The calls for the study of criminal actions in different societies as a consequent of the rapid socio-culture, political, and economic changes blowing over these societies is not new in criminology texts (Clifford 1965; Bennett 1980; Brown, Esbensen and Geis 1991). This study building directly on key insights about armed robbery in contemporary Nigeria: patterns, rates, modus operandi, and social organisation (characteristics), begins by noting the importance of these calls, and the need for conceptual revival in this regard. Conscientious approach directed at developing a brand of theoretical framework that approximates the criminal behaviour in question and context is one sure way of achieving this revival. This research draws 86 samples of armed robbers in three selected prisons and states of contemporary Nigeria to provide first and foremost, a fuller criminological and sociological descriptive analysis of the offence and the offenders. Analyses of data provide findings from which wide scales of meanings are possible. For instances, results suggest that offenders are more likely to be those at the economic margin of the society; those with a taste of western education–largely educated or quasi-educated as a way of life; those expressing their despise to a system they perceived to be corrupt and highly elitist. They are likely to be armed with weapons; be in groups; and have females as members of the gang/group. They are also and fundamentally, likely to tap other peculiarities of Nigerian society such as the belief in "African insurance" (charms), and pervasive corruption. Results of test show that there tends to be good degrees of causal relationships between the sources of learning about modern armed robbery and the frequency of committing the offence, planning, and the modus operandi. Within the broad context of sociological theory, and more specifically, the Tarde's imitation, Sutherland's differential association, and Iwarmie-Jaja's previous experience strands, the results of the empirical investigation are synthesised and explained. The research draws upon these conceptual threads to suggest a better and fuller model of armed robbery in contemporary armed robbery. This alternative model of explanation is described and referred to as "emulation".Criminology and Security ScienceDLITT ET PHIL (CRIMINOLOGY

Forensic Technology and Crime Management in Nigeria: A Study of Rivers State

In Developed Countries (DCs) of the world adoption of scientific sophistication in crime management and investigation has advanced tremendously. This has led to unravelling of criminal syndicates and all forms of crime, and has also established incontrovertible act and legally admissible evidences before the court. Unfortunately the reverse is the case in Nigeria, following the inability of the government to provide the security agencies with modern equipment, such as a more functional and efficient database for criminal records and enough trained professionals. The Country’s Central Criminal Registry (CCR) still makes use of outdated manually kept records, thus making it difficult to assess the fingerprints of more than one hundred and fifty million people. It is therefore, in the interest of the researchers to critically examine the roles, challenges and prospects of forensic technology in crime management and control in Nigeria with a focus on Rivers State as well as to proffer relevant solutions to the already biting situation. The study found it necessary to adopt explorative and descriptive design since it is used in obtaining data/information related to the current status of the phenomena to be described or under investigation. The study adopted “Social Constructionist Theory” and “The Role Theory” to evaluate the relationship between the variables in the study. The findings showed that combating crime through forensic technology is eminent and sacrosanct but in Nigeria the reverse is the case hence protracted crime, insurgency and insecurity. It recommends that in view of technological advancement, government should integrate technology and specialist field training into crime management programme that will place security personnel ahead of criminals which will definitely create a robust national security and development. Keywords: Forensic, Technology, Crime Management in Nigeria DOI: 10.7176/RHSS/9-14-06 Publication date:July 31st 201

Criminal Businessmen, Commodity Frontiers and the Colombian State

This article presents three micro-stories of Colombian businessmen of the criminal type who operated in commodity frontiers, known for the presence of intense public violence. In today's globalization, the Colombian economy made the transition from "coffee and industry" to "cocaine and services". Some authoritarian and modernizing policies of the Colombian State, mainly Uribe’s Defense and Democratic Security Policy, DDSP, 2002- 2010, have been central in the formation of a thick network of crime, business, public violence and politics as usual. Our micro historic analyzes are based mainly on judicial cases that shed light on links at various levels: (a) the growing supranationality of drug trafficking and money laundering crimes; (b) the drug trafficking substrate in the appearance of the new commodity frontiers; (c) drug trafficking as a model of a business training school particularly in Colombia's internal frontiers and (d) the fundamental link between the local and the global in the perspective of organized crime and businesses