Improving Power Flow Robustness via Circuit Simulation Methods

Recent advances in power system simulation have included the use of complex rectangular current and voltage (I-V) variables for solving the power flow and three-phase power flow problems. This formulation has demonstrated superior convergence properties over conventional polar coordinate based formulations for three-phase power flow, but has failed to replicate the same advantages for power flow in general due to convergence issues with systems containing PV buses. In this paper, we demonstrate how circuit simulation techniques can provide robust convergence for any complex I-V formulation that is derived from our split equivalent circuit representation. Application to power grid test systems with up to 10000 buses demonstrates consistent global convergence to the correct physical solution from arbitrary initial conditions.Comment: Presented at IEEE PES General Meeting, July 2017, Chicag

LITHIUM-ION BATTERY DEGRADATION EVALUATION THROUGH BAYESIAN NETWORK METHOD FOR RESIDENTIAL ENERGY STORAGE SYSTEMS

Batteries continue to infiltrate in innovative applications with the technological advancements led by Li-ion chemistry in the past decade. Residential energy storage is one such example, made possible by increasing efficiency and decreasing the cost of solar PV. Residential energy storage, charged by rooftop solar PV is tied to the grid, provides household loads. This multi-operation role has a significant effect on battery degradation. These contributing factors especially solar irradiation and weather conditions are highly variable and can only be explained with probabilistic analysis. However, the effect of such external factors on battery degradation is approached in recent literature with mostly deterministic and some limited stochastic processes. Thus, a probabilistic degradation analysis of Li-ion batteries in residential energy storage is required to evaluate aging and relate to the external causal factors. The literature review revealed modified Arrhenius degradation model for Li-ion battery cells. Though originating from an empirical deterministic method, the modified Arrhenius equation relates battery degradation with all the major properties, i.e. state of charge, C-rate, temperature, and total amp-hour throughput. These battery properties are correlated with external factors while evaluation of capacity fade of residential Li-ion battery using a proposed detailed hierarchical Bayesian Network (BN), a hierarchical probabilistic framework suitable to analyze battery degradation stochastically. The BN is developed considering all the uncertainties of the process including, solar irradiance, grid services, weather conditions, and EV schedule. It also includes hidden intermediate variables such as battery power and power generated by solar PV. Markov Chain Monte-Carlo analysis with Metropolis-Hastings algorithm is used to estimate capacity fade along with several other interesting posterior probability distributions from the BN. Various informative and promising results were obtained from multiple case scenarios that were developed to explore the effect of the aforementioned external factors on the battery. Furthermore, the methodologies involved to perform several characterizations and aging test that is essential to evaluate the estimation proposed by the hierarchical BN is explored. These experiments were conducted with conventional and low-cost hardware-in-the-loop systems that were developed and utilized to quantify the quality of estimation of degradation

Online monitoring and control of voltage stability margin via machine learning-based adaptive approaches

Voltage instability or voltage collapse, observed in many blackout events, poses a significant threat to power system reliability. To prevent voltage collapse, the countermeasures suggested by the post analyses of the blackouts usually include the adoption of better online voltage stability monitoring and control tools. Recently, the variability and uncertainty imposed by the increasing penetration of renewable energy further magnifies this need. This work investigates the methodologies for online voltage stability margin (VSM) monitoring and control in the new era of smart grid and big data. It unleashes the value of online measurements and leverages the fruitful results in machine learning and demand response. An online VSM monitoring approach based on local regression and adaptive database is proposed. Considering the increasing variability and uncertainty of power system operation, this approach utilizes the locality of underlying pattern between VSM and reactive power reserve (RPR), and can adapt to the changing condition of system. LASSO (Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator) is tailored to solve the local regression problem so as to mitigate the curse of dimensionality for large-scale system. Along with the VSM prediction, its prediction interval is also estimated simultaneously in a simple but effective way, and utilized as an evidence to trigger the database updating. IEEE 30-bus system and a 60,000-bus large system are used to test and demonstrate the proposed approach. The results show that the proposed approach can be successfully employed in online voltage stability monitoring for real size systems, and the adaptivity of model and data endows the proposed approach with the advantage in the circumstances where large and unforeseen changes of system condition are inevitable. In case degenerative system conditions are identified, a control strategy is needed to steer the system back to security. A model predictive control (MPC) based framework is proposed to maintain VSM in near-real-time while minimizing the control cost. VSM is locally modeled as a linear function of RPRs based on the VSM monitoring tool, which convexifies the intricate VSM-constrained optimization problem. Thermostatically controlled loads (TCLs) are utilized through a demand response (DR) aggregator as the efficient measure to enhance voltage stability. For such an advanced application of the energy management system (EMS), plug-and-play is a necessary feature that makes the new controller really applicable in a cooperative operating environment. In this work, the cooperation is realized by a predictive interface strategy, which predicts the behaviors of relevant controllers using the simple models declared and updated by those controllers. In particular, the customer dissatisfaction, defined as the cumulative discomfort caused by DR, is explicitly constrained in respect of customers\u27 interests. This constraint maintains the applicability of the control. IEEE 30-bus system is used to demonstrate the proposed control strategy. Adaptivity and proactivity lie at the heart of the proposed approach. By making full use of real-time information, the proposed approach is competent at the task of VSM monitoring and control in a non-stationary and uncertain operating environment

STOCHASTIC MODELING AND TIME-TO-EVENT ANALYSIS OF VOIP TRAFFIC

Voice over IP (VoIP) systems are gaining increased popularity due to the cost effectiveness, ease of management, and enhanced features and capabilities. Both enterprises and carriers are deploying VoIP systems to replace their TDM-based legacy voice networks. However, the lack of engineering models for VoIP systems has been realized by many researchers, especially for large-scale networks. The purpose of traffic engineering is to minimize call blocking probability and maximize resource utilization. The current traffic engineering models are inherited from the legacy PSTN world, and these models fall short from capturing the characteristics of new traffic patterns. The objective of this research is to develop a traffic engineering model for modern VoIP networks. We studied the traffic on a large-scale VoIP network and collected several billions of call information. Our analysis shows that the traditional traffic engineering approach based on the Poisson call arrival process and exponential holding time fails to capture the modern telecommunication systems accurately. We developed a new framework for modeling call arrivals as a non-homogeneous Poisson process, and we further enhanced the model by providing a Gaussian approximation for the cases of heavy traffic condition on large-scale networks. In the second phase of the research, we followed a new time-to-event survival analysis approach to model call holding time as a generalized gamma distribution and we introduced a Call Cease Rate function to model the call durations. The modeling and statistical work of the Call Arrival model and the Call Holding Time model is constructed, verified and validated using hundreds of millions of real call information collected from an operational VoIP carrier network. The traffic data is a mixture of residential, business, and wireless traffic. Therefore, our proposed models can be applied to any modern telecommunication system. We also conducted sensitivity analysis of model parameters and performed statistical tests on the robustness of the models’ assumptions. We implemented the models in a new simulation-based traffic engineering system called VoIP Traffic Engineering Simulator (VSIM). Advanced statistical and stochastic techniques were used in building VSIM system. The core of VSIM is a simulation system that consists of two different simulation engines: the NHPP parametric simulation engine and the non-parametric simulation engine. In addition, VSIM provides several subsystems for traffic data collection, processing, statistical modeling, model parameter estimation, graph generation, and traffic prediction. VSIM is capable of extracting traffic data from a live VoIP network, processing and storing the extracted information, and then feeding it into one of the simulation engines which in turn provides resource optimization and quality of service reports

Life cycle inventory uncertainty in resource-based industries : a focus on coal-based power generation

The aim of this thesis is to develop an approach to support prospective environmental decision-making in resource-based industries. The specific focus is on coal-based power generation. The objectives of the approach are that it be able to adequately reflect the environmental burdens arising from primary industries, and to make explicit the trade-offs often encountered in environmental decisions. In addition, it needs to take into account that the context in which the assessment takes place affects data availability and quality significantly, and consequently the certainty with which systems can be evaluated. Resource-based processes typically involve large-scale disruption of the local and regional environments, with imprecise processes and diffuse emissions. The modelling of the environmental performance of such processes therefore raises significant challenges, where many disparate sources of data, available at different levels of aggregation, and over various time intervals, have to be brought together into a coherent assessment. An "uncertain" definition of the system is therefore much more meaningful, in which variables are defined over ranges of values to cover inconsistencies and imbalances in the system. The inherently high variability of mining and minerals processes further supports their modelling as ranges of potential performance rather than "typical" operations, where the relevant process of interest must be identified and the variability within the particular process incorporated into the assessment Life cycle assessment (LeA) has received increasing attention for its role in environmental decision making processes, where it supports the process of defining the contribution of human activities to (at least the environmental dimension of) sustainable development. It is therefore the structured approach to environmental decision-making investigated in this thesis to organise the large data sets of varying quality and completeness available around resource-based industries into useful information, able to provide the environmental objective in a decision-making process. LeA is an inherently uncertain procedure in that it combines data sources of varying accuracy and representativeness, and employs subjective judgement in applying this data to future operating systems. Subjective judgements are also present in the definition of the systems, and in the modelling choices determining the accuracy and complexity of the inventory and impact models used. Nonetheless, LeA results are most often presented as single values, which in a comparative analysis, gives the often incorrect impression that one system is always better or worse than another system. A framework has been developed in this thesis to include all relevant sources of uncertainty encountered in LCA models explicitly, where empirical parameter uncertainty, model parameter uncertainty, and uncertainty in model form are investigated in a looped fashion. The innermost loop assesses empirical uncertainty in an iterative probabilistic analysis, using Latin Hypercube sampling of the uncertain input distributions to propagate the data uncertainty to the output, and rank-order correlation analyses to determine the relative uncertainty importance of the parameters input into the model. Model parameter uncertainty is assessed next, by a parametric analysis, or by a combination of sensitivity analyses and a parametric analysis, if a large number of model parameters require consideration. The top-most layer is an assessment of model form, in which alternative model forms are investigated in a sensitivity analysis

Hybridizing Lead-Acid Batteries with Supercapacitors: A Methodology

Hybridizing a lead–acid battery energy storage system (ESS) with supercapacitors is a promising solution to cope with the increased battery degradation in standalone microgrids that suffer from irregular electricity profiles. There are many studies in the literature on such hybrid energy storage systems (HESS), usually examining the various hybridization aspects separately. This paper provides a holistic look at the design of an HESS. A new control scheme is proposed that applies power filtering to smooth out the battery profile, while strictly adhering to the supercapacitors’ voltage limits. A new lead–acid battery model is introduced, which accounts for the combined effects of a microcycle’s depth of discharge (DoD) and battery temperature, usually considered separately in the literature. Furthermore, a sensitivity analysis on the thermal parameters and an economic analysis were performed using a 90-day electricity profile from an actual DC microgrid in India to infer the hybridization benefit. The results show that the hybridization is beneficial mainly at poor thermal conditions and highlight the need for a battery degradation model that considers both the DoD effect with microcycle resolution and temperate impact to accurately assess the gain from such a hybridization