Agent-Based Emergency Evacuation Simulation with Individuals with Disabilities in the Population

Catastrophic events have raised numerous issues concerning how effectively the built environment accommodates the evacuation needs of individuals with disabilities. Individuals with disabilities represent a significant, yet often overlooked, portion of the population disproportionately affected in emergency situations. Incorporating disability considerations into emergency evacuation planning, preparation, and other activities is critical. The most widely applied method used to evaluate how effectively the built environment accommodates emergency evacuations is agent-based or microsimulation modeling. However, current evacuation models do not adequately address individuals with disabilities in their simulated populations. This manuscript describes the BUMMPEE model, an agent-based simulation capable of classifying the built environment according to environmental characteristics and simulating a heterogeneous population according to variation in individual criteria. The method allows for simulated behaviors which more aptly represent the diversity and prevalence of disabilities in the population and their interaction with the built environment. Comparison of the results of an evacuation simulated using the BUMMPEE model is comparable to a physical evacuation with a similar population and setting. The results of the comparison indicate that the BUMMPEE model is a reasonable approach for simulating evacuations representing the diversity and prevalence of disability in the populationAgent-Based Simulation, Individual-Based Simulation, Disability, Emergency Egress, Evacuation, Reinforcement Learning

Exitus: Agent-based Evacuation Simulation for Individuals with Disabilities in a Densely Populated Sports Arena

In this paper we present an agent-based evacuation model which may be used to support private sector organizations withcapabilities-based planning efforts surrounding likely terrorist attack scenarios. The model is distinguished by its explicitconsideration of individuals with disabilities in respect to the characteristics influencing their ability to negotiatesurroundings. The virtual environment is also classified according to several accessibility traits shown to have adisproportionate effect upon behavior during an emergency. The results of an experiment simulating the truck bombing of anintermountain west sports arena reveal special areas of concern for arena managers and identify those who are most at risk orindividuals with lower stamina. Ultimately, the model can be used to inform policy makers of more effective, evidence-basedevacuation planning methods based on a better understanding of the behavior of heterogeneous populations duringemergency situations

Emergency evacuation of people with disabilities

Emergency evacuation is one of the basic strategies to ensure the safest and most efficient evacuation of people. In this context, it is necessary to understand how humans react to the threat and the influence of other factors in the evacuation. Evacuation routes and emergency exits shall be clearly signed. Emergency assistance must be designed in such a way that disable people can be assisted in a safe way. This process involves emotion and cognition, which needs to be coordinated with the physical condition and limitations of the occupants. Based on the literature, it was possible to compare the simultaneous evacuation of individuals with disabilities (physical or mental) with people without any limitation, and to conclude that individuals with disabilities significantly delay the evacuation process. The impact of building conditions where individuals with disabilities live on the evacuation plan was characterized by a case study according to the Technical Regulation of Fire Safety. The evacuation time was calculated based on the Spanish technical note NTP 436 as well as in the amendment accepted by Miguel (2012) for the evacuation time. Moreover, multiple conditions were defined to minimize the consequences of these emergencies and to protect the human life. Our goal in the future is to continue this study by using the simulacrum to explore occupant’s decision making and escape behavior and to calculate the real evacuation times and compare these results with the ones described in the literature.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Environmental effect on egress simulation

Abstract. Evacuation and egress simulations can be a useful tool for studying the effect of design decisions on the flow of agent movement. This type of simulation can be used to determine before hand the effect of design decisions and enable exploration of potential improvements. In this work, we study at how agent egress is affected by the environment in real world and large scale virtual environments and investigate metrics to analyze the flow. Our work differs from many evacuation systems in that we support grouping restrictions between agents (e.g., families or other social groups traveling together), and model scenarios with multiple modes of transportation with physically realistic dynamics (e.g., individuals walk from a building to their own cars and leave only when all people in the group arrive).

Evacuation from a Complex Structure: The Effect of Neglecting Heterogeneous Populations

AbstractHow is the total evacuation time of a mixed population and its subgroups predicted by the evacuation tool STEPS? Simulation using STEPS is compared with experimental data and evaluated based on individual total egress times. It was found that the total egress times were similar for the simulation and experiment, but the human behavior occurring in the experiment was not reproduced in the simulations

TEMPO DE EVACUAÇÃO DE UM EDIFÍCIO FACE ÀS CARACTERÍSTICAS DO LOCAL E DOS OCUPANTES COM DEFICIÊNCIA

Durante uma situação de emergência, quando se verifica que há perigo para a vida é necessário proteger os utilizadores de um edifício e a evacuação é um dos métodos básicos para tal proteção. É necessário compreender como os seres humanos reagem perante a ameaça, e os restantes fatores que influenciam, de alguma maneira, a evacuação. Este processo envolve emoção e cognição e tem de ser organizada de acordo com as condições físicas e limitações dos ocupantes. A revisão de literatura permitiu comparar a evacuação simultânea de indivíduos portadores de deficiência (física ou mental) e pessoas sem qualquer limitação verificando-se que os indivíduos com deficiência atrasam significativamente o processo de evacuação. O estudo de caso caracterizou as condições do edifício onde residem indivíduos portadores de deficiência, de acordo com o Regulamento Técnico de Segurança Contra Incêndios, definindo o efetivo e condições gerais de evacuação. O tempo de evacuação foi calculado com base na nota técnica espanhola NTP 436 e foram definidas diversas considerações que podem minimizar as consequências em situações de emergência, protegendo a vida humana. No futuro através da realização do simulacro pretendemos calcular os tempos reais, comparando os resultados obtidos e dando seguimento a este estudo.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

People with disabilities and disasters

Investigations have collectively established that disasters affect people with disabilities both disproportionately and negatively. Relevant research is reviewed by academic genesis areas in this chapter, namely; 1) disaster-focused research, 2) mental health, 3) epidemiology and public health, and 4) disability studies. However, research emanating from these disciplines reflects different epistemological assumptions about disability as well as varying knowledge about disability as a social and cultural construct. As such, this fragmented research has yet to coalesce into a coherent theory of how disasters affect people with disabilities. Scholars from the field of disability studies note that perceived disability status is often associated with stigma, creating a separate and unique barrier across societies and cultures, which can augment disaster vulnerability. An important element in reforming practice is ensuring people with disabilities can be active participants in their own preparedness, disaster risk reduction, disaster response, and disaster recovery

A Spatial Agent-based Model for Volcanic Evacuation of Mt. Merapi

Natural disasters, especially volcanic eruptions, are hazardous events that frequently happen in Indonesia. As a country within the “Ring of Fire”, Indonesia has hundreds of volcanoes and Mount Merapi is the most active. Historical studies of this volcano have revealed that there is potential for a major eruption in the future. Therefore, long-term disaster management is needed. To support the disaster management, physical and socially-based research has been carried out, but there is still a gap in the development of evacuation models. This modelling is necessary to evaluate the possibility of unexpected problems in the evacuation process since the hazard occurrences and the population behaviour are uncertain. The aim of this research was to develop an agent-based model (ABM) of volcanic evacuation to improve the effectiveness of evacuation management in Merapi. Besides the potential use of the results locally in Merapi, the development process of this evacuation model contributes by advancing the knowledge of ABM development for large-scale evacuation simulation in other contexts. Its novelty lies in (1) integrating a hazard model derived from historical records of the spatial impact of eruptions, (2) formulating and validating an individual evacuation decision model in ABM based on various interrelated factors revealed from literature reviews and surveys that enable the modelling of reluctant people, (3) formulating the integration of multi-criteria evaluation (MCE) in ABM to model a spatio-temporal dynamic model of risk (STDMR) that enables representation of the changing of risk as a consequence of changing hazard level, hazard extent and movement of people, and (4) formulating an evacuation staging method based on MCE using geographic and demographic criteria. The volcanic evacuation model represents the relationships between physical and human agents, consisting of the volcano, stakeholders, the population at risk and the environment. The experimentation of several evacuation scenarios in Merapi using the developed ABM of evacuation shows that simultaneous strategy is superior in reducing the risk, but the staged scenario is the most effective in minimising the potential of road traffic problems during evacuation events in Merapi. Staged evacuation can be a good option when there is enough time to evacuate. However, if the evacuation time is limited, the simultaneous strategy is better to be implemented. Appropriate traffic management should be prepared to avoid traffic problems when the second option is chosen

Simulating Realistic Social and Individual Behavior in Agent Societies

While the value of simulations as a tool in the natural sciences has been realized for quite some time, its potential in the social sciences is only beginning to be explored. A class of simulations used to study social behavior and phenomena is known as social simulations. One particular type of social simulation is known as agent based social simulation. Here agents are used to model social entities such as people, groups and towns. A purpose of these models is to reproduce realistic behavior in the simulation which is then used to draw conclusions about the corresponding real world entities. However reproducing realistic behavior is a difficult task. This is in part due to the fact that human actions and interactions do not adhere to well defined rules. A successful solution to this problem must reproduce realistic individual decision making as well as realistic social interactions. We propose two models. First, a model for producing realistic decision making is based off human intuition and deliberation. This model is tested in the Iterative Ultimatum Game and Bargaining Game. It is shown that when agents use both intuitive and deliberative decision making they make decisions similar to those of human subjects. Next we propose a realistic model for social interactions. Our agents remain selfish and are able to break relationships in order to maximize their utility. It is shown that when agents are able to break unrewarding relationships that a Pareto‐optimum strategy arises as the social convention. In addition we conclude the rate and amount of Pareto‐optimum strategy that arises is dependent on the network structure when the networks are dynamic and the rate is independent of the network structure when the networks are static