Bayesian calibration for multiple source regression model

In large variety of practical applications, using information from different sources or different kind of data is a reasonable demand. The problem of studying multiple source data can be represented as a multi-task learning problem, and then the information from one source can help to study the information from the other source by extracting a shared common structure. From the other hand, parameter evaluations obtained from various sources can be confused and conflicting. This paper proposes a Bayesian based approach to calibrate data obtained from different sources and to solve nonlinear regression problem in the presence of heteroscedastisity of the multiple-source model. An efficient algorithm is developed for implementation. Using analytical and simulation studies, it is shown that the proposed Bayesian calibration improves the convergence rate of the algorithm and precision of the model. The theoretical results are supported by a synthetic example, and a real-world problem, namely, modeling unsteady pitching moment coefficient of aircraft, for which a recurrent neural network is constructed

Physics-Based Learning Models for Ship Hydrodynamics

We present the concepts of physics-based learning models (PBLM) and their relevance and application to the field of ship hydrodynamics. The utility of physics-based learning is motivated by contrasting generic learning models for regression predictions, which do not presume any knowledge of the system other than the training data provided with methods such as semi-empirical models, which incorporate physical insights along with data-fitting. PBLM provides a framework wherein intermediate models, which capture (some) physical aspects of the problem, are incorporated into modern generic learning tools to substantially improve the predictions of the latter, minimizing the reliance on costly experimental measurements or high-resolution high-fidelity numerical solutions. To illustrate the versatility and efficacy of PBLM, we present three wave-ship interaction problems: 1) at speed waterline profiles; 2) ship motions in head seas; and 3) three-dimensional breaking bow waves. PBLM is shown to be robust and produce error rates at or below the uncertainty in the generated data at a small fraction of the expense of high-resolution numerical predictions.United States. Office of Naval Researc

Machine Learning in Aerodynamic Shape Optimization

Machine learning (ML) has been increasingly used to aid aerodynamic shape optimization (ASO), thanks to the availability of aerodynamic data and continued developments in deep learning. We review the applications of ML in ASO to date and provide a perspective on the state-of-the-art and future directions. We first introduce conventional ASO and current challenges. Next, we introduce ML fundamentals and detail ML algorithms that have been successful in ASO. Then, we review ML applications to ASO addressing three aspects: compact geometric design space, fast aerodynamic analysis, and efficient optimization architecture. In addition to providing a comprehensive summary of the research, we comment on the practicality and effectiveness of the developed methods. We show how cutting-edge ML approaches can benefit ASO and address challenging demands, such as interactive design optimization. Practical large-scale design optimizations remain a challenge because of the high cost of ML training. Further research on coupling ML model construction with prior experience and knowledge, such as physics-informed ML, is recommended to solve large-scale ASO problems

Predictive control approaches to fault tolerant control of wind turbines

This thesis focuses on active fault tolerant control (AFTC) of wind turbine systems. Faults in wind turbine systems can be in the form of sensor faults, actuator faults, or component faults. These faults can occur in different locations, such as the wind speed sensor, the generator system, drive train system or pitch system. In this thesis, some AFTC schemes are proposed for wind turbine faults in the above locations. Model predictive control (MPC) is used in these schemes to design the wind turbine controller such that system constraints and dual control goals of the wind turbine are considered. In order to deal with the nonlinearity in the turbine model, MPC is combined with Takagi-Sugeno (T-S) fuzzy modelling. Different fault diagnosis methods are also proposed in different AFTC schemes to isolate or estimate wind turbine faults.The main contributions of the thesis are summarized as follows:A new effective wind speed (EWS) estimation method via least-squares support vector machines (LSSVM) is proposed. Measurements from the wind turbine rotor speed sensor and the generator speed sensor are utilized by LSSVM to estimate the EWS. Following the EWS estimation, a wind speed sensor fault isolation scheme via LSSVM is proposed.A robust predictive controller is designed to consider the EWS estimation error. This predictive controller serves as the baseline controller for the wind turbine system operating in the region below rated wind speed.T-S fuzzy MPC combining MPC and T-S fuzzy modelling is proposed to design the wind turbine controller. MPC can deal with wind turbine system constraints externally. On the other hand, T-S fuzzy modelling can approximate the nonlinear wind turbine system with a linear time varying (LTV) model such that controller design can be based on this LTV model. Therefore, the advantages of MPC and T-S fuzzy modelling are both preserved in the proposed T-S fuzzy MPC.A T-S fuzzy observer, based on online eigenvalue assignment, is proposed as the sensor fault isolation scheme for the wind turbine system. In this approach, the fuzzy observer is proposed to deal with the nonlinearity in the wind turbine system and estimate system states. Furthermore, the residual signal generated from this fuzzy observer is used to isolate the faulty sensor.A sensor fault diagnosis strategy utilizing both analytical and hardware redundancies is proposed for wind turbine systems. This approach is proposed due to the fact that in the real application scenario, both analytical and hardware redundancies of wind turbines are available for designing AFTC systems.An actuator fault estimation method based on moving horizon estimation (MHE) is proposed for wind turbine systems. The estimated fault by MHE is then compensated by a T-S fuzzy predictive controller. The fault estimation unit and the T-S fuzzy predictive controller are combined to form an AFTC scheme for wind turbine actuator faults

Model-based fault diagnosis for aerospace systems: a survey

http://pig.sagepub.com/content/early/2012/01/06/0954410011421717International audienceThis survey of model-based fault diagnosis focuses on those methods that are applicable to aerospace systems. To highlight the characteristics of aerospace models, generic nonlinear dynamical modeling from flight mechanics is recalled and a unifying representation of sensor and actuator faults is presented. An extensive bibliographical review supports a description of the key points of fault detection methods that rely on analytical redundancy. The approaches that best suit the constraints of the field are emphasized and recommendations for future developments in in-flight fault diagnosis are provided