Construction of dynamic stochastic simulation models using knowledge-based techniques

Over the past three decades, computer-based simulation models have proven themselves to be cost-effective alternatives to the more structured deterministic methods of systems analysis. During this time, many techniques, tools and languages for constructing computer-based simulation models have been developed. More recently, advances in knowledge-based system technology have led many researchers to note the similarities between knowledge-based programming and simulation technologies and to investigate the potential application of knowledge-based programming techniques to simulation modeling. The integration of conventional simulation techniques with knowledge-based programming techniques is discussed to provide a development environment for constructing knowledge-based simulation models. A comparison of the techniques used in the construction of dynamic stochastic simulation models and those used in the construction of knowledge-based systems provides the requirements for the environment. This leads to the design and implementation of a knowledge-based simulation development environment. These techniques were used in the construction of several knowledge-based simulation models including the Advanced Launch System Model (ALSYM)

21st Century Simulation: Exploiting High Performance Computing and Data Analysis

This paper identifies, defines, and analyzes the limitations imposed on Modeling and Simulation by outmoded paradigms in computer utilization and data analysis. The authors then discuss two emerging capabilities to overcome these limitations: High Performance Parallel Computing and Advanced Data Analysis. First, parallel computing, in supercomputers and Linux clusters, has proven effective by providing users an advantage in computing power. This has been characterized as a ten-year lead over the use of single-processor computers. Second, advanced data analysis techniques are both necessitated and enabled by this leap in computing power. JFCOM's JESPP project is one of the few simulation initiatives to effectively embrace these concepts. The challenges facing the defense analyst today have grown to include the need to consider operations among non-combatant populations, to focus on impacts to civilian infrastructure, to differentiate combatants from non-combatants, and to understand non-linear, asymmetric warfare. These requirements stretch both current computational techniques and data analysis methodologies. In this paper, documented examples and potential solutions will be advanced. The authors discuss the paths to successful implementation based on their experience. Reviewed technologies include parallel computing, cluster computing, grid computing, data logging, OpsResearch, database advances, data mining, evolutionary computing, genetic algorithms, and Monte Carlo sensitivity analyses. The modeling and simulation community has significant potential to provide more opportunities for training and analysis. Simulations must include increasingly sophisticated environments, better emulations of foes, and more realistic civilian populations. Overcoming the implementation challenges will produce dramatically better insights, for trainees and analysts. High Performance Parallel Computing and Advanced Data Analysis promise increased understanding of future vulnerabilities to help avoid unneeded mission failures and unacceptable personnel losses. The authors set forth road maps for rapid prototyping and adoption of advanced capabilities. They discuss the beneficial impact of embracing these technologies, as well as risk mitigation required to ensure success

Fast estimation of false alarm probabilities of STAP detectors - the AMF

This paper describes an attempt to harness the power of adaptive importance sampling techniques for estimating false alarm probabilities of detectors that use space-time adaptive processing. Fast simulation using these techniques have been notably successful in the study of conventional constant false alarm rate radar detectors, and in several other applications. The principal task here is to examine the viability of using importance sampling methods for STAP detection. Though a modest beginning, the adaptive matched filter detection algorithm is analysed successfully using fast simulation. Of the two biasing methods considered, one is implemented and shown to yield excellent results. The important problem of detector threshold determination is also addressed, with matching outcome. The work reported here serves to pave the way to development of more advanced estimation techniques that can facilitate design of powerful and robust detection algorithms designed to counter hostile and heterogeneous clutter environments

Generalized dynamic engine simulation techniques for the digital computer

Recently advanced simulation techniques have been developed for the digital computer and used as the basis for development of a generalized dynamic engine simulation computer program, called DYNGEN. This computer program can analyze the steady state and dynamic performance of many kinds of aircraft gas turbine engines. Without changes to the basic program DYNGEN can analyze one- or two-spool turbofan engines. The user must supply appropriate component performance maps and design-point information. Examples are presented to illustrate the capabilities of DYNGEN in the steady state and dynamic modes of operation. The analytical techniques used in DYNGEN are briefly discussed, and its accuracy is compared with a comparable simulation using the hybrid computer. The impact of DYNGEN and similar all-digital programs on future engine simulation philosophy is also discussed

Forecasting in marketing

With the advent of advanced data collection techniques, there is an increased interest in using econometric models to support decisions in marketing. Due to the sometimes specific nature of variables in marketing, the discipline uses econometric models that are rarely, if ever, used elsewhere. This chapter deals with techniques to derive forecasts from these models. Due to the intrinsic non-linear nature of these models, these techniques draw heavliy on simulation techniques.marketing;forecasting;unobserved heterogeneity;Koyck model;attraction model;Bass model

Intelligent fault management for the Space Station active thermal control system

The Thermal Advanced Automation Project (TAAP) approach and architecture is described for automating the Space Station Freedom (SSF) Active Thermal Control System (ATCS). The baseline functionally and advanced automation techniques for Fault Detection, Isolation, and Recovery (FDIR) will be compared and contrasted. Advanced automation techniques such as rule-based systems and model-based reasoning should be utilized to efficiently control, monitor, and diagnose this extremely complex physical system. TAAP is developing advanced FDIR software for use on the SSF thermal control system. The goal of TAAP is to join Knowledge-Based System (KBS) technology, using a combination of rules and model-based reasoning, with conventional monitoring and control software in order to maximize autonomy of the ATCS. TAAP's predecessor was NASA's Thermal Expert System (TEXSYS) project which was the first large real-time expert system to use both extensive rules and model-based reasoning to control and perform FDIR on a large, complex physical system. TEXSYS showed that a method is needed for safely and inexpensively testing all possible faults of the ATCS, particularly those potentially damaging to the hardware, in order to develop a fully capable FDIR system. TAAP therefore includes the development of a high-fidelity simulation of the thermal control system. The simulation provides realistic, dynamic ATCS behavior and fault insertion capability for software testing without hardware related risks or expense. In addition, thermal engineers will gain greater confidence in the KBS FDIR software than was possible prior to this kind of simulation testing. The TAAP KBS will initially be a ground-based extension of the baseline ATCS monitoring and control software and could be migrated on-board as additional computation resources are made available

Parallel and Distributed Simulation from Many Cores to the Public Cloud (Extended Version)

In this tutorial paper, we will firstly review some basic simulation concepts and then introduce the parallel and distributed simulation techniques in view of some new challenges of today and tomorrow. More in particular, in the last years there has been a wide diffusion of many cores architectures and we can expect this trend to continue. On the other hand, the success of cloud computing is strongly promoting the everything as a service paradigm. Is parallel and distributed simulation ready for these new challenges? The current approaches present many limitations in terms of usability and adaptivity: there is a strong need for new evaluation metrics and for revising the currently implemented mechanisms. In the last part of the paper, we propose a new approach based on multi-agent systems for the simulation of complex systems. It is possible to implement advanced techniques such as the migration of simulated entities in order to build mechanisms that are both adaptive and very easy to use. Adaptive mechanisms are able to significantly reduce the communication cost in the parallel/distributed architectures, to implement load-balance techniques and to cope with execution environments that are both variable and dynamic. Finally, such mechanisms will be used to build simulations on top of unreliable cloud services.Comment: Tutorial paper published in the Proceedings of the International Conference on High Performance Computing and Simulation (HPCS 2011). Istanbul (Turkey), IEEE, July 2011. ISBN 978-1-61284-382-

Real-time application of advanced three-dimensional graphic techniques for research aircraft simulation

Visual aids are valuable assets to engineers for design, demonstration, and evaluation. Discussed here are a variety of advanced three-dimensional graphic techniques used to enhance the displays of test aircraft dynamics. The new software's capabilities are examined and possible future uses are considered

Knowledge based cloud FE simulation of sheet metal forming processes

The use of Finite Element (FE) simulation software to adequately predict the outcome of sheet metal forming processes is crucial to enhancing the efficiency and lowering the development time of such processes, whilst reducing costs involved in trial-and-error prototyping. Recent focus on the substitution of steel components with aluminum alloy alternatives in the automotive and aerospace sectors has increased the need to simulate the forming behavior of such alloys for ever more complex component geometries. However these alloys, and in particular their high strength variants, exhibit limited formability at room temperature, and high temperature manufacturing technologies have been developed to form them. Consequently, advanced constitutive models are required to reflect the associated temperature and strain rate effects. Simulating such behavior is computationally very expensive using conventional FE simulation techniques. This paper presents a novel Knowledge Based Cloud FE (KBC-FE) simulation technique that combines advanced material and friction models with conventional FE simulations in an efficient manner thus enhancing the capability of commercial simulation software packages. The application of these methods is demonstrated through two example case studies, namely: the prediction of a material's forming limit under hot stamping conditions, and the tool life prediction under multi-cycle loading conditions