Air pollution forecasts: An overview

© 2018 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. Air pollution is defined as a phenomenon harmful to the ecological system and the normal conditions of human existence and development when some substances in the atmosphere exceed a certain concentration. In the face of increasingly serious environmental pollution problems, scholars have conducted a significant quantity of related research, and in those studies, the forecasting of air pollution has been of paramount importance. As a precaution, the air pollution forecast is the basis for taking effective pollution control measures, and accurate forecasting of air pollution has become an important task. Extensive research indicates that the methods of air pollution forecasting can be broadly divided into three classical categories: statistical forecasting methods, artificial intelligence methods, and numerical forecasting methods. More recently, some hybrid models have been proposed, which can improve the forecast accuracy. To provide a clear perspective on air pollution forecasting, this study reviews the theory and application of those forecasting models. In addition, based on a comparison of different forecasting methods, the advantages and disadvantages of some methods of forecasting are also provided. This study aims to provide an overview of air pollution forecasting methods for easy access and reference by researchers, which will be helpful in further studies

Development and application of statistical methods to support air quality policy decisions

Tese de doutoramento. Ciências de Engenharia. Faculdade de Engenharia. Universidade do Porto. 200

Estimation of PM2.5 concentrations in China using a spatial back propagation neural network

Methods for estimating the spatial distribution of PM2.5 concentrations have been developed but have not yet been able to effectively include spatial correlation. We report on the development of a spatial back-propagation neural network (S-BPNN) model designed specifically to make such correlations implicit by incorporating a spatial lag variable (SLV) as a virtual input variable. The S-BPNN fits the nonlinear relationship between ground-based air quality monitoring station measurements of PM2.5, satellite observations of aerosol optical depth, meteorological synoptic conditions data and emissions data that include auxiliary geographical parameters such as land use, normalized difference vegetation index, elevation, and population density. We trained and validated the S-BPNN for both yearly and seasonal mean PM2.5 concentrations. In addition, principal components analysis was employed to reduce the dimensionality of the data and a grid of neural network models was run to optimize the model design. The S-BPNN was cross-validated against an analogous but SLV-free BPNN model using the coefficient of determination (R2) and root mean squared error (RMSE) as statistical measures of goodness of fit. The inclusion of the SLV led to demonstrably superior performance of the S-BPNN over the BPNN with R2 values increasing from 0.80 to 0.89 and with the RMSE decreasing from 8.1 to 5.8 μg/m3. The yearly mean PM2.5 concentration in China during the study period was found to be 41.8 μg/m3 and the model estimated spatial distribution was found to exceed Level 2 of the China Ambient Air Quality Standards (CAAQS) enacted in 2012 (>35 μg/m3) in more than 70% of the Chinese territory. The inclusion of spatial correlation upgrades the performance of conventional BPNN models and provides a more accurate estimation of PM2.5 concentrations for air quality monitoring

Predicting Benzene Concentration Using Machine Learning and Time Series Algorithms

[EN] Benzene is a pollutant which is very harmful to our health, so models are necessary to predict its concentration and relationship with other air pollutants. The data collected by eight stations in Madrid (Spain) over nine years were analyzed using the following regression-based machine learning models: multivariate linear regression (MLR), multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS), multilayer perceptron neural network (MLP), support vector machines (SVM), autoregressive integrated moving-average (ARIMA) and vector autoregressive moving-average (VARMA) models. Benzene concentration predictions were made from the concentration of four environmental pollutants: nitrogen dioxide (NO2), nitrogen oxides (NOx), particulate matter (PM10) and toluene (C7H8), and the performance measures of the model were studied from the proposed models. In general, regression-based machine learning models are more effective at predicting than time series models.S

Prediction of air pollutants PM10 by ARBX(1) processes

This work adopts a Banach-valued time series framework for component-wise estimation and prediction, from temporal correlated functional data, in presence of exogenous variables. The strong-consistency of the proposed functional estimator and associated plug-in predictor is formulated. The simulation study undertaken illustrates their large-sample size properties. Air pollutants PM10 curve forecasting, in the Haute-Normandie region (France), is addressed by implementation of the functional time series approach presente