Evaluation methods and decision theory for classification of streaming data with temporal dependence

Predictive modeling on data streams plays an important role in modern data analysis, where data arrives continuously and needs to be mined in real time. In the stream setting the data distribution is often evolving over time, and models that update themselves during operation are becoming the state-of-the-art. This paper formalizes a learning and evaluation scheme of such predictive models. We theoretically analyze evaluation of classifiers on streaming data with temporal dependence. Our findings suggest that the commonly accepted data stream classification measures, such as classification accuracy and Kappa statistic, fail to diagnose cases of poor performance when temporal dependence is present, therefore they should not be used as sole performance indicators. Moreover, classification accuracy can be misleading if used as a proxy for evaluating change detectors with datasets that have temporal dependence. We formulate the decision theory for streaming data classification with temporal dependence and develop a new evaluation methodology for data stream classification that takes temporal dependence into account. We propose a combined measure for classification performance, that takes into account temporal dependence, and we recommend using it as the main performance measure in classification of streaming data

A novel approach for ANFIS modelling based on Grey system theory for thermal error compensation

The fast and accurate modelling of thermal errors in machining is an important aspect for the implementation of thermal error compensation. This paper presents a novel modelling approach for thermal error compensation on CNC machine tools. The method combines the Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) and Grey system theory to predict thermal errors in machining. Instead of following a traditional approach, which utilises original data patterns to construct the ANFIS model, this paper proposes to exploit Accumulation Generation Operation (AGO) to simplify the modelling procedures. AGO, a basis of the Grey system theory, is used to uncover a development tendency so that the features and laws of integration hidden in the chaotic raw data can be sufficiently revealed. AGO properties make it easier for the proposed model to design and predict. According to the simulation results, the proposed model demonstrates stronger prediction power than standard ANFIS model only with minimum number of training samples

Handling Concept Drift for Predictions in Business Process Mining

Predictive services nowadays play an important role across all business sectors. However, deployed machine learning models are challenged by changing data streams over time which is described as concept drift. Prediction quality of models can be largely influenced by this phenomenon. Therefore, concept drift is usually handled by retraining of the model. However, current research lacks a recommendation which data should be selected for the retraining of the machine learning model. Therefore, we systematically analyze different data selection strategies in this work. Subsequently, we instantiate our findings on a use case in process mining which is strongly affected by concept drift. We can show that we can improve accuracy from 0.5400 to 0.7010 with concept drift handling. Furthermore, we depict the effects of the different data selection strategies

Adaptive inferential sensors based on evolving fuzzy models

A new technique to the design and use of inferential sensors in the process industry is proposed in this paper, which is based on the recently introduced concept of evolving fuzzy models (EFMs). They address the challenge that the modern process industry faces today, namely, to develop such adaptive and self-calibrating online inferential sensors that reduce the maintenance costs while keeping the high precision and interpretability/transparency. The proposed new methodology makes possible inferential sensors to recalibrate automatically, which reduces significantly the life-cycle efforts for their maintenance. This is achieved by the adaptive and flexible open-structure EFM used. The novelty of this paper lies in the following: (1) the overall concept of inferential sensors with evolving and self-developing structure from the data streams; (2) the new methodology for online automatic selection of input variables that are most relevant for the prediction; (3) the technique to detect automatically a shift in the data pattern using the age of the clusters (and fuzzy rules); (4) the online standardization technique used by the learning procedure of the evolving model; and (5) the application of this innovative approach to several real-life industrial processes from the chemical industry (evolving inferential sensors, namely, eSensors, were used for predicting the chemical properties of different products in The Dow Chemical Company, Freeport, TX). It should be noted, however, that the methodology and conclusions of this paper are valid for the broader area of chemical and process industries in general. The results demonstrate that well-interpretable and with-simple-structure inferential sensors can automatically be designed from the data stream in real time, which predict various process variables of interest. The proposed approach can be used as a basis for the development of a new generation of adaptive and evolving inferential sensors that can a- ddress the challenges of the modern advanced process industry