Pairwise meta-rules for better meta-learning-based algorithm ranking

In this paper, we present a novel meta-feature generation method in the context of meta-learning, which is based on rules that compare the performance of individual base learners in a one-against-one manner. In addition to these new meta-features, we also introduce a new meta-learner called Approximate Ranking Tree Forests (ART Forests) that performs very competitively when compared with several state-of-the-art meta-learners. Our experimental results are based on a large collection of datasets and show that the proposed new techniques can improve the overall performance of meta-learning for algorithm ranking significantly. A key point in our approach is that each performance figure of any base learner for any specific dataset is generated by optimising the parameters of the base learner separately for each dataset

OBOE: Collaborative Filtering for AutoML Model Selection

Algorithm selection and hyperparameter tuning remain two of the most challenging tasks in machine learning. Automated machine learning (AutoML) seeks to automate these tasks to enable widespread use of machine learning by non-experts. This paper introduces OBOE, a collaborative filtering method for time-constrained model selection and hyperparameter tuning. OBOE forms a matrix of the cross-validated errors of a large number of supervised learning models (algorithms together with hyperparameters) on a large number of datasets, and fits a low rank model to learn the low-dimensional feature vectors for the models and datasets that best predict the cross-validated errors. To find promising models for a new dataset, OBOE runs a set of fast but informative algorithms on the new dataset and uses their cross-validated errors to infer the feature vector for the new dataset. OBOE can find good models under constraints on the number of models fit or the total time budget. To this end, this paper develops a new heuristic for active learning in time-constrained matrix completion based on optimal experiment design. Our experiments demonstrate that OBOE delivers state-of-the-art performance faster than competing approaches on a test bed of supervised learning problems. Moreover, the success of the bilinear model used by OBOE suggests that AutoML may be simpler than was previously understood

Selecting Near-Optimal Learners via Incremental Data Allocation

We study a novel machine learning (ML) problem setting of sequentially allocating small subsets of training data amongst a large set of classifiers. The goal is to select a classifier that will give near-optimal accuracy when trained on all data, while also minimizing the cost of misallocated samples. This is motivated by large modern datasets and ML toolkits with many combinations of learning algorithms and hyper-parameters. Inspired by the principle of "optimism under uncertainty," we propose an innovative strategy, Data Allocation using Upper Bounds (DAUB), which robustly achieves these objectives across a variety of real-world datasets. We further develop substantial theoretical support for DAUB in an idealized setting where the expected accuracy of a classifier trained on $n$ samples can be known exactly. Under these conditions we establish a rigorous sub-linear bound on the regret of the approach (in terms of misallocated data), as well as a rigorous bound on suboptimality of the selected classifier. Our accuracy estimates using real-world datasets only entail mild violations of the theoretical scenario, suggesting that the practical behavior of DAUB is likely to approach the idealized behavior.Comment: AAAI-2016: The Thirtieth AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligenc

Towards Coupling Full-disk and Active Region-based Flare Prediction for Operational Space Weather Forecasting

Solar flare prediction is a central problem in space weather forecasting and has captivated the attention of a wide spectrum of researchers due to recent advances in both remote sensing as well as machine learning and deep learning approaches. The experimental findings based on both machine and deep learning models reveal significant performance improvements for task specific datasets. Along with building models, the practice of deploying such models to production environments under operational settings is a more complex and often time-consuming process which is often not addressed directly in research settings. We present a set of new heuristic approaches to train and deploy an operational solar flare prediction system for $\geq$M1.0-class flares with two prediction modes: full-disk and active region-based. In full-disk mode, predictions are performed on full-disk line-of-sight magnetograms using deep learning models whereas in active region-based models, predictions are issued for each active region individually using multivariate time series data instances. The outputs from individual active region forecasts and full-disk predictors are combined to a final full-disk prediction result with a meta-model. We utilized an equal weighted average ensemble of two base learners' flare probabilities as our baseline meta learner and improved the capabilities of our two base learners by training a logistic regression model. The major findings of this study are: (i) We successfully coupled two heterogeneous flare prediction models trained with different datasets and model architecture to predict a full-disk flare probability for next 24 hours, (ii) Our proposed ensembling model, i.e., logistic regression, improves on the predictive performance of two base learners and the baseline meta learner measured in terms of two widely used metrics True Skill Statistic (TSS) and Heidke Skill core (HSS), and (iii) Our result analysis suggests that the logistic regression-based ensemble (Meta-FP) improves on the full-disk model (base learner) by $\sim9\%$ in terms TSS and $\sim10\%$ in terms of HSS. Similarly, it improves on the AR-based model (base learner) by $\sim17\%$ and $\sim20\%$ in terms of TSS and HSS respectively. Finally, when compared to the baseline meta model, it improves on TSS by $\sim10\%$ and HSS by $\sim15\%$

Diversified Ensemble Classifiers for Highly Imbalanced Data Learning and their Application in Bioinformatics

In this dissertation, the problem of learning from highly imbalanced data is studied. Imbalance data learning is of great importance and challenge in many real applications. Dealing with a minority class normally needs new concepts, observations and solutions in order to fully understand the underlying complicated models. We try to systematically review and solve this special learning task in this dissertation.We propose a new ensemble learning framework—Diversified Ensemble Classifiers for Imbal-anced Data Learning (DECIDL), based on the advantages of existing ensemble imbalanced learning strategies. Our framework combines three learning techniques: a) ensemble learning, b) artificial example generation, and c) diversity construction by reversely data re-labeling. As a meta-learner, DECIDL utilizes general supervised learning algorithms as base learners to build an ensemble committee. We create a standard benchmark data pool, which contains 30 highly skewed sets with diverse characteristics from different domains, in order to facilitate future research on imbalance data learning. We use this benchmark pool to evaluate and compare our DECIDL framework with several ensemble learning methods, namely under-bagging, over-bagging, SMOTE-bagging, and AdaBoost. Extensive experiments suggest that our DECIDL framework is comparable with other methods. The data sets, experiments and results provide a valuable knowledge base for future research on imbalance learning. We develop a simple but effective artificial example generation method for data balancing. Two new methods DBEG-ensemble and DECIDL-DBEG are then designed to improve the power of imbalance learning. Experiments show that these two methods are comparable to the state-of-the-art methods, e.g., GSVM-RU and SMOTE-bagging. Furthermore, we investigate learning on imbalanced data from a new angle—active learning. By combining active learning with the DECIDL framework, we show that the newly designed Active-DECIDL method is very effective for imbalance learning, suggesting the DECIDL framework is very robust and flexible.Lastly, we apply the proposed learning methods to a real-world bioinformatics problem—protein methylation prediction. Extensive computational results show that the DECIDL method does perform very well for the imbalanced data mining task. Importantly, the experimental results have confirmed our new contributions on this particular data learning problem