19,385 research outputs found
Markov Chain Monte Carlo: Can We Trust the Third Significant Figure?
Current reporting of results based on Markov chain Monte Carlo computations
could be improved. In particular, a measure of the accuracy of the resulting
estimates is rarely reported. Thus we have little ability to objectively assess
the quality of the reported estimates. We address this issue in that we discuss
why Monte Carlo standard errors are important, how they can be easily
calculated in Markov chain Monte Carlo and how they can be used to decide when
to stop the simulation. We compare their use to a popular alternative in the
context of two examples.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/08-STS257 the Statistical
Science (http://www.imstat.org/sts/) by the Institute of Mathematical
Statistics (http://www.imstat.org
Relative fixed-width stopping rules for Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations
Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulations are commonly employed for
estimating features of a target distribution, particularly for Bayesian
inference. A fundamental challenge is determining when these simulations should
stop. We consider a sequential stopping rule that terminates the simulation
when the width of a confidence interval is sufficiently small relative to the
size of the target parameter. Specifically, we propose relative magnitude and
relative standard deviation stopping rules in the context of MCMC. In each
setting, we develop sufficient conditions for asymptotic validity, that is
conditions to ensure the simulation will terminate with probability one and the
resulting confidence intervals will have the proper coverage probability. Our
results are applicable in a wide variety of MCMC estimation settings, such as
expectation, quantile, or simultaneous multivariate estimation. Finally, we
investigate the finite sample properties through a variety of examples and
provide some recommendations to practitioners.Comment: 24 page
Fixed-width output analysis for Markov chain Monte Carlo
Markov chain Monte Carlo is a method of producing a correlated sample in
order to estimate features of a target distribution via ergodic averages. A
fundamental question is when should sampling stop? That is, when are the
ergodic averages good estimates of the desired quantities? We consider a method
that stops the simulation when the width of a confidence interval based on an
ergodic average is less than a user-specified value. Hence calculating a Monte
Carlo standard error is a critical step in assessing the simulation output. We
consider the regenerative simulation and batch means methods of estimating the
variance of the asymptotic normal distribution. We give sufficient conditions
for the strong consistency of both methods and investigate their finite sample
properties in a variety of examples
Metropolis Sampling
Monte Carlo (MC) sampling methods are widely applied in Bayesian inference,
system simulation and optimization problems. The Markov Chain Monte Carlo
(MCMC) algorithms are a well-known class of MC methods which generate a Markov
chain with the desired invariant distribution. In this document, we focus on
the Metropolis-Hastings (MH) sampler, which can be considered as the atom of
the MCMC techniques, introducing the basic notions and different properties. We
describe in details all the elements involved in the MH algorithm and the most
relevant variants. Several improvements and recent extensions proposed in the
literature are also briefly discussed, providing a quick but exhaustive
overview of the current Metropolis-based sampling's world.Comment: Wiley StatsRef-Statistics Reference Online, 201
Scalable Inference for Markov Processes with Intractable Likelihoods
Bayesian inference for Markov processes has become increasingly relevant in
recent years. Problems of this type often have intractable likelihoods and
prior knowledge about model rate parameters is often poor. Markov Chain Monte
Carlo (MCMC) techniques can lead to exact inference in such models but in
practice can suffer performance issues including long burn-in periods and poor
mixing. On the other hand approximate Bayesian computation techniques can allow
rapid exploration of a large parameter space but yield only approximate
posterior distributions. Here we consider the combined use of approximate
Bayesian computation (ABC) and MCMC techniques for improved computational
efficiency while retaining exact inference on parallel hardware
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