7,940 research outputs found
Real-Time Bidding by Reinforcement Learning in Display Advertising
The majority of online display ads are served through real-time bidding (RTB)
--- each ad display impression is auctioned off in real-time when it is just
being generated from a user visit. To place an ad automatically and optimally,
it is critical for advertisers to devise a learning algorithm to cleverly bid
an ad impression in real-time. Most previous works consider the bid decision as
a static optimization problem of either treating the value of each impression
independently or setting a bid price to each segment of ad volume. However, the
bidding for a given ad campaign would repeatedly happen during its life span
before the budget runs out. As such, each bid is strategically correlated by
the constrained budget and the overall effectiveness of the campaign (e.g., the
rewards from generated clicks), which is only observed after the campaign has
completed. Thus, it is of great interest to devise an optimal bidding strategy
sequentially so that the campaign budget can be dynamically allocated across
all the available impressions on the basis of both the immediate and future
rewards. In this paper, we formulate the bid decision process as a
reinforcement learning problem, where the state space is represented by the
auction information and the campaign's real-time parameters, while an action is
the bid price to set. By modeling the state transition via auction competition,
we build a Markov Decision Process framework for learning the optimal bidding
policy to optimize the advertising performance in the dynamic real-time bidding
environment. Furthermore, the scalability problem from the large real-world
auction volume and campaign budget is well handled by state value approximation
using neural networks.Comment: WSDM 201
Statistical Arbitrage Mining for Display Advertising
We study and formulate arbitrage in display advertising. Real-Time Bidding
(RTB) mimics stock spot exchanges and utilises computers to algorithmically buy
display ads per impression via a real-time auction. Despite the new automation,
the ad markets are still informationally inefficient due to the heavily
fragmented marketplaces. Two display impressions with similar or identical
effectiveness (e.g., measured by conversion or click-through rates for a
targeted audience) may sell for quite different prices at different market
segments or pricing schemes. In this paper, we propose a novel data mining
paradigm called Statistical Arbitrage Mining (SAM) focusing on mining and
exploiting price discrepancies between two pricing schemes. In essence, our
SAMer is a meta-bidder that hedges advertisers' risk between CPA (cost per
action)-based campaigns and CPM (cost per mille impressions)-based ad
inventories; it statistically assesses the potential profit and cost for an
incoming CPM bid request against a portfolio of CPA campaigns based on the
estimated conversion rate, bid landscape and other statistics learned from
historical data. In SAM, (i) functional optimisation is utilised to seek for
optimal bidding to maximise the expected arbitrage net profit, and (ii) a
portfolio-based risk management solution is leveraged to reallocate bid volume
and budget across the set of campaigns to make a risk and return trade-off. We
propose to jointly optimise both components in an EM fashion with high
efficiency to help the meta-bidder successfully catch the transient statistical
arbitrage opportunities in RTB. Both the offline experiments on a real-world
large-scale dataset and online A/B tests on a commercial platform demonstrate
the effectiveness of our proposed solution in exploiting arbitrage in various
model settings and market environments.Comment: In the proceedings of the 21st ACM SIGKDD international conference on
Knowledge discovery and data mining (KDD 2015
Scalable Audience Reach Estimation in Real-time Online Advertising
Online advertising has been introduced as one of the most efficient methods
of advertising throughout the recent years. Yet, advertisers are concerned
about the efficiency of their online advertising campaigns and consequently,
would like to restrict their ad impressions to certain websites and/or certain
groups of audience. These restrictions, known as targeting criteria, limit the
reachability for better performance. This trade-off between reachability and
performance illustrates a need for a forecasting system that can quickly
predict/estimate (with good accuracy) this trade-off. Designing such a system
is challenging due to (a) the huge amount of data to process, and, (b) the need
for fast and accurate estimates. In this paper, we propose a distributed fault
tolerant system that can generate such estimates fast with good accuracy. The
main idea is to keep a small representative sample in memory across multiple
machines and formulate the forecasting problem as queries against the sample.
The key challenge is to find the best strata across the past data, perform
multivariate stratified sampling while ensuring fuzzy fall-back to cover the
small minorities. Our results show a significant improvement over the uniform
and simple stratified sampling strategies which are currently widely used in
the industry
A novel Big Data analytics and intelligent technique to predict driver's intent
Modern age offers a great potential for automatically predicting the driver's intent through the increasing miniaturization of computing technologies, rapid advancements in communication technologies and continuous connectivity of heterogeneous smart objects. Inside the cabin and engine of modern cars, dedicated computer systems need to possess the ability to exploit the wealth of information generated by heterogeneous data sources with different contextual and conceptual representations. Processing and utilizing this diverse and voluminous data, involves many challenges concerning the design of the computational technique used to perform this task. In this paper, we investigate the various data sources available in the car and the surrounding environment, which can be utilized as inputs in order to predict driver's intent and behavior. As part of investigating these potential data sources, we conducted experiments on e-calendars for a large number of employees, and have reviewed a number of available geo referencing systems. Through the results of a statistical analysis and by computing location recognition accuracy results, we explored in detail the potential utilization of calendar location data to detect the driver's intentions. In order to exploit the numerous diverse data inputs available in modern vehicles, we investigate the suitability of different Computational Intelligence (CI) techniques, and propose a novel fuzzy computational modelling methodology. Finally, we outline the impact of applying advanced CI and Big Data analytics techniques in modern vehicles on the driver and society in general, and discuss ethical and legal issues arising from the deployment of intelligent self-learning cars
Market Segmentation Trees
We seek to provide an interpretable framework for segmenting users in a
population for personalized decision-making. The standard approach is to
perform market segmentation by clustering users according to similarities in
their contextual features, after which a "response model" is fit to each
segment to model how users respond to personalized decisions. However, this
methodology is not ideal for personalization, since two users could in theory
have similar features but different response behaviors. We propose a general
methodology, Market Segmentation Trees (MSTs), for learning interpretable
market segmentations explicitly driven by identifying differences in user
response patterns. To demonstrate the versatility of our methodology, we design
two new, specialized MST algorithms: (i) Choice Model Trees (CMTs) which can be
used to predict a user's choice amongst multiple options, and (ii) Isotonic
Regression Trees (IRTs) which can be used to solve the bid landscape
forecasting problem. We provide a customizable, open-source code base for
training MSTs in Python which employs several strategies for scalability,
including parallel processing and warm starts. We provide a theoretical
analysis of the asymptotic running time of our training method validating its
computational tractability on large datasets. We assess the practical
performance of MSTs on several synthetic and real world datasets, showing our
method reliably finds market segmentations which accurately model response
behavior. Further, when applying MSTs to historical bidding data from a leading
demand-side platform (DSP), we show that MSTs consistently achieve a 5-29%
improvement in bid landscape forecasting accuracy over the DSP's current model.
Our findings indicate that integrating market segmentation with response
modeling consistently leads to improvements in response prediction accuracy,
thereby aiding personalization
Display Advertising with Real-Time Bidding (RTB) and Behavioural Targeting
The most significant progress in recent years in online display advertising is what is known as the Real-Time Bidding (RTB) mechanism to buy and sell ads. RTB essentially facilitates buying an individual ad impression in real time while it is still being generated from a user’s visit. RTB not only scales up the buying process by aggregating a large amount of available inventories across publishers but, most importantly, enables direct targeting of individual users. As such, RTB has fundamentally changed the landscape of digital marketing. Scientifically, the demand for automation, integration and optimisation in RTB also brings new research opportunities in information retrieval, data mining, machine learning and other related fields. In this monograph, an overview is given of the fundamental infrastructure, algorithms, and technical solutions of this new frontier of computational advertising. The covered topics include user response prediction, bid landscape forecasting, bidding algorithms, revenue optimisation, statistical arbitrage, dynamic pricing, and ad fraud detection
Smart Pacing for Effective Online Ad Campaign Optimization
In targeted online advertising, advertisers look for maximizing campaign
performance under delivery constraint within budget schedule. Most of the
advertisers typically prefer to impose the delivery constraint to spend budget
smoothly over the time in order to reach a wider range of audiences and have a
sustainable impact. Since lots of impressions are traded through public
auctions for online advertising today, the liquidity makes price elasticity and
bid landscape between demand and supply change quite dynamically. Therefore, it
is challenging to perform smooth pacing control and maximize campaign
performance simultaneously. In this paper, we propose a smart pacing approach
in which the delivery pace of each campaign is learned from both offline and
online data to achieve smooth delivery and optimal performance goals. The
implementation of the proposed approach in a real DSP system is also presented.
Experimental evaluations on both real online ad campaigns and offline
simulations show that our approach can effectively improve campaign performance
and achieve delivery goals.Comment: KDD'15, August 10-13, 2015, Sydney, NSW, Australi
Display Advertising with Real-Time Bidding (RTB) and Behavioural Targeting
The most significant progress in recent years in online display advertising is what is known as the Real-Time Bidding (RTB) mechanism to buy and sell ads. RTB essentially facilitates buying an individual ad impression in real time while it is still being generated from a user’s visit. RTB not only scales up the buying process by aggregating a large amount of available inventories across publishers but, most importantly, enables direct targeting of individual users. As such, RTB has fundamentally changed the landscape of digital marketing. Scientifically, the demand for automation, integration and optimisation in RTB also brings new research opportunities in information retrieval, data mining, machine learning and other related fields. In this monograph, an overview is given of the fundamental infrastructure, algorithms, and technical solutions of this new frontier of computational advertising. The covered topics include user response prediction, bid landscape forecasting, bidding algorithms, revenue optimisation, statistical arbitrage, dynamic pricing, and ad fraud detection
- …