Problem-driven scenario generation: an analytical approach for stochastic programs with tail risk measure

Scenario generation is the construction of a discrete random vector to represent parameters of uncertain values in a stochastic program. Most approaches to scenario generation are distribution-driven, that is, they attempt to construct a random vector which captures well in a probabilistic sense the uncertainty. On the other hand, a problem-driven approach may be able to exploit the structure of a problem to provide a more concise representation of the uncertainty. In this paper we propose an analytic approach to problem-driven scenario generation. This approach applies to stochastic programs where a tail risk measure, such as conditional value-at-risk, is applied to a loss function. Since tail risk measures only depend on the upper tail of a distribution, standard methods of scenario generation, which typically spread their scenarios evenly across the support of the random vector, struggle to adequately represent tail risk. Our scenario generation approach works by targeting the construction of scenarios in areas of the distribution corresponding to the tails of the loss distributions. We provide conditions under which our approach is consistent with sampling, and as proof-of-concept demonstrate how our approach could be applied to two classes of problem, namely network design and portfolio selection. Numerical tests on the portfolio selection problem demonstrate that our approach yields better and more stable solutions compared to standard Monte Carlo sampling

Approximation algorithms for stochastic and risk-averse optimization

We present improved approximation algorithms in stochastic optimization. We prove that the multi-stage stochastic versions of covering integer programs (such as set cover and vertex cover) admit essentially the same approximation algorithms as their standard (non-stochastic) counterparts; this improves upon work of Swamy \& Shmoys which shows an approximability that depends multiplicatively on the number of stages. We also present approximation algorithms for facility location and some of its variants in the $2$-stage recourse model, improving on previous approximation guarantees. We give a $2.2975$-approximation algorithm in the standard polynomial-scenario model and an algorithm with an expected per-scenario $2.4957$-approximation guarantee, which is applicable to the more general black-box distribution model.Comment: Extension of a SODA'07 paper. To appear in SIAM J. Discrete Mat

Validating Sample Average Approximation Solutions with Negatively Dependent Batches

Sample-average approximations (SAA) are a practical means of finding approximate solutions of stochastic programming problems involving an extremely large (or infinite) number of scenarios. SAA can also be used to find estimates of a lower bound on the optimal objective value of the true problem which, when coupled with an upper bound, provides confidence intervals for the true optimal objective value and valuable information about the quality of the approximate solutions. Specifically, the lower bound can be estimated by solving multiple SAA problems (each obtained using a particular sampling method) and averaging the obtained objective values. State-of-the-art methods for lower-bound estimation generate batches of scenarios for the SAA problems independently. In this paper, we describe sampling methods that produce negatively dependent batches, thus reducing the variance of the sample-averaged lower bound estimator and increasing its usefulness in defining a confidence interval for the optimal objective value. We provide conditions under which the new sampling methods can reduce the variance of the lower bound estimator, and present computational results to verify that our scheme can reduce the variance significantly, by comparison with the traditional Latin hypercube approach

On the Sample Size of Random Convex Programs with Structured Dependence on the Uncertainty (Extended Version)

The "scenario approach" provides an intuitive method to address chance constrained problems arising in control design for uncertain systems. It addresses these problems by replacing the chance constraint with a finite number of sampled constraints (scenarios). The sample size critically depends on Helly's dimension, a quantity always upper bounded by the number of decision variables. However, this standard bound can lead to computationally expensive programs whose solutions are conservative in terms of cost and violation probability. We derive improved bounds of Helly's dimension for problems where the chance constraint has certain structural properties. The improved bounds lower the number of scenarios required for these problems, leading both to improved objective value and reduced computational complexity. Our results are generally applicable to Randomized Model Predictive Control of chance constrained linear systems with additive uncertainty and affine disturbance feedback. The efficacy of the proposed bound is demonstrated on an inventory management example.Comment: Accepted for publication at Automatic