Extending the Global Sensitivity Analysis of the SimSphere model in the Context of its Future Exploitation by the Scientific Community

In today’s changing climate, the development of robust, accurate and globally applicable models is imperative for a wider understanding of Earth’s terrestrial biosphere. Moreover, an understanding of the representation, sensitivity and coherence of such models are vital for the operationalisation of any physically based model. A Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) was conducted on the SimSphere land biosphere model in which a meta-modelling method adopting Bayesian theory was implemented. Initially, effects of assuming uniform probability distribution functions (PDFs) for the model inputs, when examining sensitivity of key quantities simulated by SimSphere at different output times, were examined. The development of topographic model input parameters (e.g., slope, aspect, and elevation) were derived within a Geographic Information System (GIS) before implementation within the model. The effect of time of the simulation on the sensitivity of previously examined outputs was also analysed. Results showed that simulated outputs were significantly influenced by changes in topographic input parameters, fractional vegetation cover, vegetation height and surface moisture availability in agreement with previous studies. Time of model output simulation had a significant influence on the absolute values of the output variance decomposition, but it did not seem to change the relative importance of each input parameter. Sensitivity Analysis (SA) results of the newly modelled outputs allowed identification of the most responsive model inputs and interactions. Our study presents an important step forward in SimSphere verification given the increasing interest in its use both as an independent modelling and educational tool. Furthermore, this study is very timely given on-going efforts towards the development of operational products based on the synergy of SimSphere with Earth Observation (EO) data. In this context, results also provide additional support for the potential applicability of the assimilation of spatial analysis data derived from GIS and EO data into an accurate modelling framework

Sensitivity Analysis

Sensitivity analysis (SA), in particular global sensitivity analysis (GSA), is now regarded as a discipline coming of age, primarily for understanding and quantifying how model results and associated inferences depend on its parameters and assumptions. Indeed, GSA is seen as a key part of good modelling practice. However, inappropriate SA, such as insufficient convergence of sensitivity metrics, can lead to untrustworthy results and associated inferences. Good practice SA should also consider the robustness of results and inferences to choices in methods and assumptions relating to the procedure. Moreover, computationally expensive models are common in various fields including environmental domains, where model runtimes are long due to the nature of the model itself, and/or software platform and legacy issues. To extract using GSA the most accurate information from a computationally expensive model, there may be a need for increased computational efficiency. Primary considerations here are sampling methods that provide efficient but adequate coverage of parameter space and estimation algorithms for sensitivity indices that are computationally efficient. An essential aspect in the procedure is adopting methods that monitor and assess the convergence of sensitivity metrics. The thesis reviews the different categories of GSA methods, and then it lays out the various factors and choices therein that can impact the robustness of a GSA exercise. It argues that the overall level of assurance, or practical trustworthiness, of results obtained is engendered from consideration of robustness with respect to the individual choices made for each impact factor. Such consideration would minimally involve transparent justification of individual choices made in the GSA exercise but, wherever feasible, include assessment of the impacts on results of plausible alternative choices. Satisfactory convergence plays a key role in contributing to the level of assurance, and hence the ultimate effectiveness of the GSA can be enhanced if choices are made to achieve that convergence. The thesis examines several of these impact factors, primary ones being the GSA method/estimator, the sampling method, and the convergence monitoring method, the latter being essential for ensuring robustness. The motivation of the thesis is to gain a further understanding and quantitative appreciation of elements that shape and guide the results and computational efficiency of a GSA exercise. This is undertaken through comparative analysis of estimators of GSA sensitivity measures, sampling methods and error estimation of sensitivity metrics in various settings using well-established test functions. Although quasi-Monte Carlo Sobol' sampling can be a good choice computationally, it has error spike issues which are addressed here through a new Column Shift resampling method. We also explore an Active Subspace based GSA method, which is demonstrated to be more informative and computationally efficient than those based on the variance-based Sobol' method. Given that GSA can be computationally demanding, the thesis aims to explore ways that GSA can be more computationally efficient by: addressing how convergence can be monitored and assessed; analysing and improving sampling methods that provide a high convergence rate with low error in sensitivity measures; and analysing and comparing GSA methods, including their algorithm settings