An intelligent system for risk classification of stock investment projects

The proposed paper demonstrates that a hybrid fuzzy neural network can serve as a risk classifier of stock investment projects. The training algorithm for the regular part of the network is based on bidirectional incremental evolution proving more efficient than direct evolution. The approach is compared with other crisp and soft investment appraisal and trading techniques, while building a multimodel domain representation for an intelligent decision support system. Thus the advantages of each model are utilised while looking at the investment problem from different perspectives. The empirical results are based on UK companies traded on the London Stock Exchange

Ortalama-varyans portföy optimizasyonunda genetik algoritma uygulamaları üzerine bir literatür araştırması

Mean-variance portfolio optimization model, introduced by Markowitz, provides a fundamental answer to the problem of portfolio management. This model seeks an efficient frontier with the best trade-offs between two conflicting objectives of maximizing return and minimizing risk. The problem of determining an efficient frontier is known to be NP-hard. Due to the complexity of the problem, genetic algorithms have been widely employed by a growing number of researchers to solve this problem. In this study, a literature review of genetic algorithms implementations on mean-variance portfolio optimization is examined from the recent published literature. Main specifications of the problems studied and the specifications of suggested genetic algorithms have been summarized

Asset Allocation with Aversion to Parameter Uncertainty: A Minimax Regression Approach

This paper takes a minimax regression approach to incorporate aversion to parameter uncertainty into the mean-variance model. The uncertainty-averse minimax mean-variance portfolio is obtained by minimizing with respect to the unknown weights the upper bound of the usual quadratic risk function over a fuzzy ellipsoidal set. Beyond the existing approaches, our methodology offers three main advantages: first, the resulting optimal portfolio can be interpreted as a Bayesian mean-variance portfolio with the least favorable prior density, and this result allows for a comprehensive comparison with traditional uncertainty-neutral Bayesian mean-variance portfolios. Second, the minimax mean-variance portfolio has a shrinkage expression, but its performance does not necessarily lie within those of the two reference portfolios. Third, we provide closed form expressions for the standard errors of the minimax mean-variance portfolio weights and statistical significance of the optimal portfolio weights can be easily conducted. Empirical applications show that incorporating aversion to parameter uncertainty leads to more stable optimal portfolios that outperform traditional uncertainty-neutral Bayesian mean-variance portfolios.Asset allocation, estimation error, aversion to uncertainty, min-imax regression, Bayesian mean-variance portfolios, least favorable prior

The Financial Crisis Impact on the Composition of an Optimal Portfolio in the Stock Market - Study Applied to Portuguese Index PSI 20

In order to maximize their utility function, investors select some assets over others, choosing the portfolio that will allow them to maximize their wealth. Each asset is chosen considering the relationship between the risk of that particular investment (usually measured by variance) - and the profitability it can offer, as well as the risk between this and other assets (measured by covariance). The purpose of this study consisted of constructing the minimum variance portfolio, using data from the PSI-20 (2008-2016) representative asset quotation, where investors are risk reluctant and wish to minimize risk while maintaining the same level of profitability, or on the other hand, maintaining the same level of risk but maximizing expected profit. In order to do this, a comparison of the optimal portfolio in 2004-2017 was carried out, compared to the minimum variance portfolio after the financial crisis (2008-2016). The method used to estimate each asset’s expected profitability that makes up the PSI-20 consists of extracting the obtained historical quotations. The optimal portfolio composition, in the period after the financial crisis, shows that the energy sector has an optimal portfolio weight reduction of 39.15%, that the big distribution sector (23.85%) was introduced into the portfolio and by last, the industrial sector stands its ground in the composition of the optimal portfolio.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

The financial crisis impact on the composition of an optimal portfolio in the stock market: study applied to portuguese index PSI 20

In order to maximize their utility function, investors select some assets over others, choosing the portfolio that will allow them to maximize their wealth. Each asset is chosen considering the relationship between the risk of that particular investment (usually measured by variance) - and the profitability it can offer, as well as the risk between this and other assets (measured by covariance). The purpose of this study consisted of constructing the minimum variance portfolio, using data from the PSI-20 (2008-2016) representative asset quotation, where investors are risk reluctant and wish to minimize risk while maintaining the same level of profitability, or on the other hand, maintaining the same level of risk but maximizing expected profit. In order to do this, a comparison of the optimal portfolio in 2004-2017 was carried out, compared to the minimum variance portfolio after the financial crisis (2008-2016). The method used to estimate each asset’s expected profitability that makes up the PSI-20 consists of extracting the obtained historical quotations. The optimal portfolio composition, in the period after the financial crisis, shows that the energy sector has an optimal portfolio weight reduction of 39.15%, that the big distribution sector (23.85%) was introduced into the portfolio and by last, the industrial sector stands its ground in the composition of the optimal portfolio.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio