Risk-based Framework for Management of Construction Projects

Well-developed risk management tools provide critical support for successful delivery of construction projects. Considerable research has been conducted towards integration of risk management in front-end planning and in execution phases of this class of projects. The accuracy of these tools relies heavily on their respective assumptions and on the data used in their application. Consideration of risk in these tools utilizes two types of data: actual past records and estimated future data related to completion of projects under consideration. The literature reveals that most published work in this area utilized these data either in bidding phase or in one of individual project execution phases to minimize the negative impact of risk on project cost and duration at completion. However, there is a lack of a comprehensive framework that employs both types of data in different phases of construction projects. This prevents construction practitioners from implementing an efficient risk management program. In this research, a new risk-based framework is developed, addressing limitations of existing models for different management functions over project lifecycle. The developed framework employs past performance data of construction organizations and projects in the bidding phase for risk maturity evaluation, contingency estimation, markup estimation, planning and scheduling, and progress reporting. The framework has five developed models. The first introduces a decision support model for risk maturity evaluation of construction organizations to identify their strengths and weaknesses in risk management processes, employing the Analytic Network Process (ANP) and fuzzy set theory. It enables construction organizations to assess and continuously improve their risk management capabilities. The second model introduces a new cost contingency estimation model considering correlations among project cost items, subjectively and objectively. It is also capable of modeling project cost contingency with and without the use of Monte Carlo simulation, which is deemed particularly useful when using subjective correlations. The third model introduces new pattern recognition techniques for estimating project markup. It utilizes Multiple Regression (MR), Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Adaptive Nero-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) techniques for that purpose, considering five factors: need for work, job uncertainty, job complexity, market condition, and owner capability. The fourth model introduces a newly developed multi-objective optimization model for scheduling of repetitive projects under uncertainty. The model considers the estimated cost contingency and the project markup in the total project cost and conducts, simultaneously, trade-offs between project duration, project cost, crew work interruptions, and interruption costs. It safeguards against assignment of unnecessary costly resources and provides a reliable project baseline. The fifth model presents a newly developed risk-based earned duration management model (RBEDM) that utilizes the generated project baseline in forecasting project duration at completion, considering critical activities only and their associated risk factors. It introduces a new risk adjustment factor (RAFcr) that quantifies the impact of future uncertainties associated with critical activities in estimating project duration at completion. This unique aspect of the developed model addresses the main drawback of earned duration management (EDM) its reliance on past performance data only. It also assists project managers in estimating more accurate and realistic required time to project completion

Modelling the stochastic dependence underlying construction cost and duration

Construction cost and duration are two critical project indicators. It is acknowledged that these two indicators are closely dependent and highly uncertain due to various common factors and limited data for explanatory model calibration. However, the stochastic dependence underlying construction cost and duration is usually ignored and the subsequent probabilistic analysis can be misleading. In response, this study develops a Nataf distribution model of building cost and duration, in which the uncertainties of total cost, unit cost, and duration are respectively quantified by univariate distribution fitting, while their stochastic dependence is inferred by maximum likelihood estimation. This method is applied to the costs and durations of 77 China residential building projects completed between 2011 and 2016. The goodness of fit test illustrates that the data conform well to the developed model. The conditional distributions of cost and duration are then derived and the corresponding conditional expectations and variances are given. The results provide the distribution of building costs for a desired duration and the expected duration given a budget. This, together with the ability to update probabilities when new project information is available, confirms the potential of the proposed model to benefit precontract decision making from a risk perspective

A 5D Building Information Model (BIM) for Potential Cost-Benefit Housing: A Case of Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA)

The Saudi construction industry is going through a process of acclimatizing to a shifting fiscal environment. Due to recent fluctuations in oil prices, the Saudi construction sector decided to adjust to current trade-market demands and rigorous constitutional regulations because of competitive pressures. This quantitative study assesses and compares existing flat design vs. mid-terrace housing through cost estimation and design criteria that takes family privacy into consideration and meets the needs of Saudi Arabian families (on average consisting of seven members). Five pilot surveys were undertaken to evaluate the property preference type of Saudi families. However, Existing models did not satisfy the medium range family needs and accordingly a 5D (3D + Time + Cost) Building Information Modelling (BIM) is proposed for cost benefiting houses. Research results revealed that mid-terrace housing was the best option, as it reduced land usage and construction costs. While, 5D BIM led to estimate accurate Bill of Quantities (BOQ) and the appraisal of construction cost

Cost Estimate Modeling of Transportation Management Plans for Highway Projects, Research Report 11-24

Highway rehabilitation and reconstruction projects frequently cause road congestion and increase safety concerns while limiting access for road users. State Transportation Agencies (STAs) are challenged to find safer and more efficient ways to renew deteriorating roadways in urban areas. To better address the work zone issues, the Federal Highway Administration published updates to the Work Zone Safety and Mobility Rule. All state and local governments receiving federal aid funding were required to comply with the provisions of the rule no later than October 12, 2007. One of the rule’s major elements is to develop and implement Transportation Management Plans (TMPs). Using well-developed TMP strategies, work zone safety and mobility can be enhanced while road user costs can be minimized. The cost of a TMP for a road project is generally considered a high-cost item and, therefore, must be quantified. However, no tools or systematic modeling methods are available to assist agency engineers with TMP cost estimating. This research included reviewing TMP reports for recent Caltrans projects regarding state-of-the-art TMP practices and input from the district TMP traffic engineers. The researchers collected Caltrans highway project data regarding TMP cost estimating. Then, using Construction Analysis for Pavement Rehabilitation Strategies (CA4PRS) software, the researchers performed case studies. Based on the CA4PRS outcomes of the case studies, a TMP strategy selection and cost estimate (STELCE) model for Caltrans highway projects was proposed. To validate the proposed model, the research demonstrated an application for selecting TMP strategies and estimating TMP costs. Regarding the model’s limitation, the proposed TMP STELCE model was developed based on Caltrans TMP practices and strategies. Therefore, other STAs might require adjustments and modifications, reflecting their TMP processes, before adopting this model. Finally, the authors recommended that a more detailed step-by-step TMP strategy selection and cost estimate process be included in the TMP guidelines to improve the accuracy of TMP cost estimates

Implementing 5D BIM on construction projects: Contractor perspectives from the UK construction sector

This is an accepted manuscript of an article published by Emerald in Journal of Engineering, Design and Technology on 09/05/2020: https://doi.org/10.1108/JEDT-01-2020-0007 The accepted version of the publication may differ from the final published version.Purpose The purpose of this paper is to report on primary research findings that sought to investigate and analyse salient issues on the implementation of 5D building information modelling (BIM) from the UK contractors’ perspective. Previous research and efforts have predominantly focussed on the use of technologies for cost estimation and quantity takeoff within a more traditional-led procurement, with a paucity of research focussing on how 5D BIM could facilitate costing within contractor-led procurement. This study fills this current knowledge gap and enhances the understanding of the specific costing challenges faced by contractors in contractor-led projects, leading to the development of 5D framework for use in future projects. Design/methodology/approach To develop a fully detailed understanding of the challenges and issues being faced in this regard, a phenomenological, qualitative-based study was undertaken through interviews involving 21 participants from UK-wide construction organisations. A thematic data analytical process was applied to the data to derive key issues, and this was then used to inform the development of a 5D-BIM costing framework. Findings Multi-disciplinary findings reveal a range of issues faced by contractors when implementing 5D BIM. These exist at strategic, operational and technological levels which require addressing successful implementation of 5D BIM on contractor-led projects adhering to Level 2 BIM standards. These findings cut across the range of stakeholders on contractor-led projects. Ultimately, the findings suggest strong commitment and leadership from organisational management are required to facilitate cost savings and generate accurate cost information. Practical implications This study highlights key issues for any party seeking to effectively deploy 5D BIM on a contractor-led construction project. A considerable cultural shift towards automating and digitising cost functions virtually, stronger collaborative working relationship relative to costing in design development, construction practice, maintenance and operation is required. Originality/value By analysing findings from primary research data, the work concludes with the development of a 5D BIM costing framework to support contractor-led projects which can be implemented to ensure that 5D BIM is successfully implemented

An Empirical Model for Optimal Highway Durability in Cold Regions

We develop an empirical tool to estimate optimal highway durability in cold regions. To test the model, we assemble a data set containing all highway construction and maintenance projects in Arizona and Washington State from 1990 to 2014. The data set includes information on location, time, type (resurfacing, construction, or lane widening), pavement material and thickness, and total expenditure for these projects. Using the data, we first estimate how highway maintenance costs and highway duration depend on pavement thickness and traffic loading. We then calibrate the effects of different deicers on highway durability and thus on highway maintenance costs. Finally, we demonstrate how the estimated and calibrated model can be used by planners to make optimal decisions for highway pavement and winter operations in cold regions

Estimating Workforce Development Needs for High-Speed Rail in California, Research Report 11-16

This study provides an assessment of the job creation and attendant education and training needs associated with the creation of the California High-Speed Rail (CHSR) network, scheduled to begin construction in September 2012. Given the high profile of national and state commitment to the project, a comprehensive analysis that discusses the education, training, and related needs created during the build out of the CHSR network is necessary. This needs assessment is achieved by means of: 1) analyzing current high-speed rail specific challenges pertaining to 220mph trains; 2) using a more accurate and robust “bottom-up” approach to estimate the labor, education, skills, and knowledge needed to complete the CHSR network; and 3) assessing the current capacity of railroad-specific training and education in the state of California and the nation. Through these analyses, the study identifies the magnitude and attributes of the workforce development needs and challenges that lie ahead for California. The results of this research offer new insight into the training and education levels likely to be needed for the emergent high-speed rail workforce, including which types of workers and professionals are needed over the life of the project (by project phase), and their anticipated educational level. Results indicates that although the education attained by the design engineers of the system signifies the most advanced levels of education in the workforce, this group is comparatively small over the life of the project. Secondly, this report identifies vast training needs for the construction workforce and higher education needs for a managerial construction workforce. Finally, the report identifies an extremely limited existing capacity for training and educating the high-speed rail workforce in both California and in the U.S. generally

Risk management in a mega-project: the Universal EXPO 2015 case

The paper analyses the literature on risk management in mega-projects suggesting possible mitigation actions to be considered in the stakeholders' management. EXPO 2015 represents a perfect project to understand the strength of a rigorous methodological approach to uncertainty and the need for a mature consciousness at managerial level on these topics. Analysing real available data on this project, the number of visitors appears overestimated, so, by adopting a framework, called SHAMPU, the paper quantifies the relative impact and provides possible mitigation actions. Practical actions crossing the risk management phases in mega projects proposed by literature are suggested in the conclusions

A framework for integrating syntax, semantics and pragmatics for computer-aided professional practice: With application of costing in construction industry

Producing a bill of quantity is a knowledge-based, dynamic and collaborative process, and evolves with variances and current evidence. However, within the context of information system practice in BIM, knowledge of cost estimation has not been represented, nor has it been integrated into the processes based on BIM. This paper intends to establish an innovative means of taking data from the BIM linked to a project, and using it to create the necessary items for a bill of quantity that will enable cost estimation to be undertaken for the project. Our framework is founded upon the belief that three components are necessary to gain a full awareness of the domain which is being computerised; the information type which is to be assessed for compatibility (syntax), the definition for the pricing domain (semantics), and the precise implementation environment for the standards being taken into account (pragmatics). In order to achieve this, a prototype is created that allows a cost item for the bill of quantity to be spontaneously generated, by means of the semantic web ontology and a forward chain algorithm. Within this paper, ‘cost items’ signify the elements included in a bill of quantity, including details of their description, quantity and price. As a means of authenticating the process being developed, the authors of this work effectively implemented it in the production of cost items. In addition, the items created were contrasted with those produced by specialists. For this reason, this innovative framework introduces the possibility of a new means of applying semantic web ontology and forward chain algorithm to construction professional practice resulting in automatic cost estimation. These key outcomes demonstrate that, decoupling the professional practice into three key components of syntax, semantics and pragmatics can provide tangible benefits to domain use