A new class of minimum power divergence estimators with applications to cancer surveillance

AbstractThe annual percent change (APC) has been adopted as a useful measure for analyzing the changing trends of cancer mortality and incidence rates by the NCI SEER program. Difficulties, however, arise when comparing the sample APCs between two overlapping regions because of induced dependence (e.g., comparing the cancer mortality change rate of California with that of the national level). This paper deals with a new perspective for understanding the sample distribution of the test-statistics for comparing the APCs between overlapping regions. Our proposal allows for computational readiness and easy interpretability. We further propose a more general family of estimators, namely, the so-called minimum power divergence estimators, including the maximum likelihood estimators as a special case. Our simulation experiments support the superiority of the proposed estimator to the conventional maximum likelihood estimator. The proposed method is illustrated by the analysis of the SEER cancer mortality rates observed from 1991 to 2006

Inference and Estimation in Change Point Models for Censored Data

In general, the change point problem considers inference of a change in distribution for a set of time-ordered observations. This has applications in a large variety of fields and can also apply to survival data. With improvements to medical diagnoses and treatments, incidences and mortality rates have changed. However, the most commonly used analysis methods do not account for such distributional changes. In survival analysis, change point problems can concern a shift in a distribution for a set of time-ordered observations, potentially under censoring or truncation. In this dissertation, we first propose a sequential testing approach for detecting multiple change points in the Weibull accelerated failure time model, since this is sufficiently flexible to accommodate increasing, decreasing, or constant hazard rates and is also the only continuous distribution for which the accelerated failure time model can be reparametrized as a proportional hazards model. Our sequential testing procedure does not require the number of change points to be known; this information is instead inferred from the data. We conduct a simulation study to show that the method accurately detects change points and estimates the model. The numerical results along with a real data application demonstrate that our proposed method can detect change points in the hazard rate. In survival analysis, most existing methods compare two treatment groups for the entirety of the study period. Some treatments may take a length of time to show effects in subjects. This has been called the time-lag effect in the literature, and in cases where time-lag effect is considerable, such methods may not be appropriate to detect significant differences between two groups. In the second part of this dissertation, we propose a novel non-parametric approach for estimating the point of treatment time-lag effect by using an empirical divergence measure. Theoretical properties of the estimator are studied. The results from the simulated data and real data example support our proposed method

On utilizing weak estimators to achieve the online classification of data streams

Author's accepted version (post-print).Available from 03/09/2021.acceptedVersio

Pattern discovery in adverse event data

Imperial Users onl

Change-point Problem and Regression: An Annotated Bibliography

The problems of identifying changes at unknown times and of estimating the location of changes in stochastic processes are referred to as the change-point problem or, in the Eastern literature, as disorder . The change-point problem, first introduced in the quality control context, has since developed into a fundamental problem in the areas of statistical control theory, stationarity of a stochastic process, estimation of the current position of a time series, testing and estimation of change in the patterns of a regression model, and most recently in the comparison and matching of DNA sequences in microarray data analysis. Numerous methodological approaches have been implemented in examining change-point models. Maximum-likelihood estimation, Bayesian estimation, isotonic regression, piecewise regression, quasi-likelihood and non-parametric regression are among the methods which have been applied to resolving challenges in change-point problems. Grid-searching approaches have also been used to examine the change-point problem. Statistical analysis of change-point problems depends on the method of data collection. If the data collection is ongoing until some random time, then the appropriate statistical procedure is called sequential. If, however, a large finite set of data is collected with the purpose of determining if at least one change-point occurred, then this may be referred to as non-sequential. Not surprisingly, both the former and the latter have a rich literature with much of the earlier work focusing on sequential methods inspired by applications in quality control for industrial processes. In the regression literature, the change-point model is also referred to as two- or multiple-phase regression, switching regression, segmented regression, two-stage least squares (Shaban, 1980), or broken-line regression. The area of the change-point problem has been the subject of intensive research in the past half-century. The subject has evolved considerably and found applications in many different areas. It seems rather impossible to summarize all of the research carried out over the past 50 years on the change-point problem. We have therefore confined ourselves to those articles on change-point problems which pertain to regression. The important branch of sequential procedures in change-point problems has been left out entirely. We refer the readers to the seminal review papers by Lai (1995, 2001). The so called structural change models, which occupy a considerable portion of the research in the area of change-point, particularly among econometricians, have not been fully considered. We refer the reader to Perron (2005) for an updated review in this area. Articles on change-point in time series are considered only if the methodologies presented in the paper pertain to regression analysis

Ann Appl Stat

The R\uc3\ua9nyi index (RI) is a one-parameter class of indices that summarize health disparities among population groups by measuring divergence between the distributions of disease burden and population shares of these groups. The rank-dependent RI introduced in this paper is a two-parameter class of health disparity indices that also accounts for the association between socioeconomic rank and health; it may be derived from a rank-dependent social welfare function. Two competing classes are discussed and the rank-dependent RI is shown to be more robust to changes in the distribution of either socioeconomic rank or health. The standard error and sampling distribution of the rank-dependent RI are evaluated using linearization and re-sampling techniques, and the methodology is illustrated using health survey data from the U.S. National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey and registry data from the U.S. Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results Program. Such data underlie many population-based objectives within the U.S. Healthy People 2020 initiative. The rank-dependent RI provides a unified mathematical framework for eliciting various societal positions with regards to the policies that are tied to such wide-reaching public health initiatives. For example, if population groups with lower socioeconomic position were ascertained to be more likely to utilize costly public programs, then the parameters of the RI could be selected to reflect prioritizing those population groups for intervention or treatment.CC999999/Intramural CDC HHS/United States2015-11-10T00:00:00Z26566419PMC464104

On a general structure for hazard-based regression models: An application to population-based cancer research

The proportional hazards model represents the most commonly assumed hazard structure when analysing time to event data using regression models. We study a general hazard structure which contains, as particular cases, proportional hazards, accelerated hazards, and accelerated failure time structures, as well as combinations of these. We propose an approach to apply these different hazard structures, based on a flexible parametric distribution (exponentiated Weibull) for the baseline hazard. This distribution allows us to cover the basic hazard shapes of interest in practice: constant, bathtub, increasing, decreasing, and unimodal. In an extensive simulation study, we evaluate our approach in the context of excess hazard modelling, which is the main quantity of interest in descriptive cancer epidemiology. This study exhibits good inferential properties of the proposed model, as well as good performance when using the Akaike Information Criterion for selecting the hazard structure. An application on lung cancer data illustrates the usefulness of the proposed model