Modelling electric vehicles use: a survey on the methods

In the literature electric vehicle use is modelled using of a variety of approaches in power systems, energy and environmental analyses as well as in travel demand analysis. This paper provides a systematic review of these diverse approaches using a twofold classification of electric vehicle use representation, based on the time scale and on substantive differences in the modelling techniques. For time of day analysis of demand we identify activity-based modelling (ABM) as the most attractive because it provides a framework amenable for integrated cross-sector analyses, required for the emerging integration of the transport and electricity network. However, we find that the current examples of implementation of AMB simulation tools for EV-grid interaction analyses have substantial limitations. Amongst the most critical there is the lack of realism how charging behaviour is represented

Car Road Charging: Impact Assessment on German and Austrian Households

The authors apply a computable general equilibrium (CGE) modeling framework to carry out a two-country comparison for Austria and Germany assessing the impact of road charging (RC). The pricing policy measure is introduced for the private motorized transport mode and applies to the overall road network. To derive and compare distributional effects of passenger car RC, the mode-specific travel demand of private households is integrated into the CGE model. Furthermore, the modeling framework accounts for different household categories with respect to disposable net income and the corresponding travel demand profiles introduced in terms of behavioral mobility parameters as well as household travel expenditures. Comparing the country-specific results, we find country-specific differences in the impact of RC on household categories, as well as similarities. The differences that we find indicate the importance of particular parameters for the evaluation of infrastructure pricing policy reforms. We can relate differences to prevalent country-specific differences in sociodemographic characteristics, land use structure, territorial population distribution, as well as macroeconomic indicators. To add substance to the two-country impact assessment, a sensitivity analysis is carried out, introducing different RC revenue use schemes. We find differences in distributional effects under equity concerns to be closely related to the revenue use pattern as well as to country- and household-specific travel demand profiles.Computable general equilibrium model, redistributive effects, road charging

Land-Use Transport Interaction: State of the Art

This paper investigates innovative approaches to the integration of land-use and transport planning in urban regions. Engineering, economic and social-science based theories and empirical studies are analyzed regarding their ability to explain the interaction between land use and transport - that land use determines traffic flows and that transport infrastructure changes land-use patterns. In addition, this paper provides an overview of the state of the art of computer models for the simulation of land use and transport. Based on these theories and models the effectiveness of policies to influence land use and transport in urban regions is assessed.Urban location theory, transportation research, land use- transport interaction, urban simulation modeling, location choice

The countryside in urbanized Flanders: towards a flexible definition for a dynamic policy

The countryside, the rural area, the open space, … many definitions are used for rural Flanders. Everyone makes its own interpretation of the countryside, considering it as a place for living, working or recreating. The countryside is more than just a geographical area: it is an aggregate of physical, social, economic and cultural functions, strongly interrelated with each other. According to international and European definitions of rural areas there would be almost no rural area in Flanders. These international definitions are all developed to be used for analysis and policy within their specific context. They are not really applicable to Flanders because of the historical specificity of its spatial structure. Flanders is characterized by a giant urbanization pressure on its countryside while internationally rural depopulation is a point of interest. To date, for every single rural policy initiative – like the implementation of the European Rural Development Policy – Flanders used a specifically adapted definition, based on existing data or previously made delineations. To overcome this oversupply of definitions and delineations, the Flemish government funded a research project to obtain a clear and flexible definition of the Flemish countryside and a dynamic method to support Flemish rural policy aims. First, an analysis of the currently used definitions of the countryside in Flanders was made. It is clear that, depending on the perspective or the policy context, another definition of the countryside comes into view. The comparative study showed that, according to the used criteria, the area percentage of Flanders that is rural, varies between 9 and 93 per cent. Second, dynamic sets of criteria were developed, facilitating a flexible definition of the countryside, according to the policy aims concerned. This research part was focused on 6 policy themes, like ‘construction, maintenance and management of local (transport) infrastructures’ and ‘provision of (minimum) services (education, culture, health care, …)’. For each theme a dynamic set of criteria or indicators was constructed. These indicators make it possible to show where a policy theme manifests itself and/or where policy interventions are possible or needed. In this way every set of criteria makes up a new definition of rural Flanders. This method is dynamic; new data or insights can easily be incorporated and new criteria sets can be developed if other policy aims come into view. The developed method can contribute to a more region-oriented and theme-specific rural policy and funding mechanism

A review of computable general equilibrium models for transport and their applications in appraisal

© 2018 Elsevier Ltd In the transport planning process, decision makers require reliable and informative appraisals to facilitate comparisons and determine if a proposal is worthwhile to society. The cost–benefit analysis is the most common form of appraisal, where benefits are primarily measured from the change in consumer surplus in the transport market. However, these benefits will only reflect maximum social welfare if markets operate perfectly competitively and without any market failures. There may be significant uncaptured impacts, known as wider economic impacts, which agencies are beginning to incorporate in appraisals using ad-hoc methods. Computable general equilibrium (CGE) models are an increasingly popular method for assessing the economic impact of transport, including both direct and wider economic impacts, as they can determine the distribution of impacts among every market and agent in the economy by simulating the behaviour of households, firms and others from microeconomic first principles. Aside from their traditional role estimating changes in macroeconomic variables, CGE models can provide a measure of welfare that guarantees no double counting and accounts for nth order effects. This paper reviews the full range of CGE models that have been applied to transport issues and discusses their role in transport appraisal. CGE models for transport have been developed in urban, regional and environmental economics as well as other fields, and each field has applied its own theory, assumptions and practices to represent the relationships between transport and the economy relevant to the field. This paper also discusses the general role of CGE modelling in transport appraisal, as well as theoretical and practical concerns regarding CGE modelling practice

micro and macro modelling approaches for the evaluation of the carbon impacts of transportation

Abstract To quantify CO2 emissions from road transport, literature suggests the adoption of several alternative methods, based on transport modelling and carbon modules. Some of these methods are labelled as a micro approach and others as a macro approach. Their distinction is made according to the temporal and spatial horizons, the aim of the study and the degree of accuracy required. This paper presents these methods and discusses their appropriateness, whereby special focus is laid on the potential of the micro approach on ICT, based on a literature review of several European projects. We conclude that the adoption of the micro approach, is quite promising – mostly at the urban level, despite the computational efforts required and the technical difficulties to model driver behaviors. Thus, further research is required to overcome the numerous sources of scientific uncertainties

Methodological and empirical challenges in modelling residential location choices

The modelling of residential locations is a key element in land use and transport planning. There are significant empirical and methodological challenges inherent in such modelling, however, despite recent advances both in the availability of spatial datasets and in computational and choice modelling techniques. One of the most important of these challenges concerns spatial aggregation. The housing market is characterised by the fact that it offers spatially and functionally heterogeneous products; as a result, if residential alternatives are represented as aggregated spatial units (as in conventional residential location models), the variability of dwelling attributes is lost, which may limit the predictive ability and policy sensitivity of the model. This thesis presents a modelling framework for residential location choice that addresses three key challenges: (i) the development of models at the dwelling-unit level, (ii) the treatment of spatial structure effects in such dwelling-unit level models, and (iii) problems associated with estimation in such modelling frameworks in the absence of disaggregated dwelling unit supply data. The proposed framework is applied to the residential location choice context in London. Another important challenge in the modelling of residential locations is the choice set formation problem. Most models of residential location choices have been developed based on the assumption that households consider all available alternatives when they are making location choices. Due the high search costs associated with the housing market, however, and the limited capacity of households to process information, the validity of this assumption has been an on-going debate among researchers. There have been some attempts in the literature to incorporate the cognitive capacities of households within discrete choice models of residential location: for instance, by modelling households’ choice sets exogenously based on simplifying assumptions regarding their spatial search behaviour (e.g., an anchor-based search strategy) and their characteristics. By undertaking an empirical comparison of alternative models within the context of residential location choice in the Greater London area this thesis investigates the feasibility and practicality of applying deterministic choice set formation approaches to capture the underlying search process of households. The thesis also investigates the uncertainty of choice sets in residential location choice modelling and proposes a simplified probabilistic choice set formation approach to model choice sets and choices simultaneously. The dwelling-level modelling framework proposed in this research is practice-ready and can be used to estimate residential location choice models at the level of dwelling units without requiring independent and disaggregated dwelling supply data. The empirical comparison of alternative exogenous choice set formation approaches provides a guideline for modellers and land use planners to avoid inappropriate choice set formation approaches in practice. Finally, the proposed simplified choice set formation model can be applied to model the behaviour of households in online real estate environments.Open Acces

Toward Closing the Loop between Infrastructure Investments and Societal and Economic Impacts

The long-term value proposition of transportation infrastructure investments can be significantly distorted if the short term effects of spatial externalities on land-use patterns, economic expansions, and migration patterns are not properly included in the analysis. Some of these effects occur over a short period of time and soon after the investment materializes, while others take longer and follow more steady patterns. In this paper, we develop a novel dynamical model of a primal society with constructs that are specifically geared toward transportation infrastructure expansions and investments. The model quantifies the impact of these expansions on some key performance indicators and on the overall utility and production capacity of the society. We argue that traditional analytical models that work on the premises of stationary behavior and a static response of society to changes in infrastructure do not correctly capture these effects. The land use patterns and spatial expansion computed from the model are validated against existing theory on land use. Preliminary results on how to use the model for value proposition analysis are also presented using simple case studies.This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Taylor & Francis via http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/0013791X.2015.106535

Modelling the evolution of economic structure and climate change: a review

We discuss how different models assessing climate change integrate aspects of structural change that are crucial to improve understanding of the relation between changes in the environment and in the economy. We identify six related aspects of structural change, which have significant impact on climate change: sectoral composition, industrial organisation, technology, employment, final demand, and institutions. Economic models vary substantially with respect to the aspects of structural change that they include, and how they model them. We review different modelling families and compare these differences: integrated assessment models (IAM), computable general equilibrium (CGE) models, structural change models (SCM), ecological macroeconomics models in the Keynesian tradition (EMK) and evolutionary agent based models (EABM). We find that IAM and CGE address few of the aspects of structural change identified; SCM focus on the sectoral composition; and EKM study final demand and employment structure. But all these models are aggregate and omit the complexity of the interactions between structural and climate change. EABM have explored a larger number of aspects of structural change, modelling their emergence from the interaction of microeconomic actors, but have not yet exploited their potential to study the interactions among interrelated aspects of structural and climate change

Modelling electric vehicles use : a survey on the methods

In the literature electric vehicle use is modelled using of a variety of approaches in power systems, energy and environmental analyses as well as in travel demand analysis. This paper provides a systematic review of these diverse approaches using a twofold classification of electric vehicle use representation, based on the time scale and on substantive differences in the modelling techniques. For time of day analysis of demand we identify activity-based modelling (ABM) as the most attractive because it provides a framework amenable for integrated cross-sector analyses, required for the emerging integration of the transport and electricity network. However, we find that the current examples of implementation of AMB simulation tools for EV-grid interaction analyses have substantial limitations. Amongst the most critical there is the lack of realism how charging behaviour is represented