Landslide displacement forecasting using deep learning and monitoring data across selected sites

Accurate early warning systems for landslides are a reliable risk-reduction strategy that may significantly reduce fatalities and economic losses. Several machine learning methods have been examined for this purpose, underlying deep learning (DL) models’ remarkable prediction capabilities. The long short-term memory (LSTM) and gated recurrent unit (GRU) algorithms are the sole DL model studied in the extant comparisons. However, several other DL algorithms are suitable for time series forecasting tasks. In this paper, we assess, compare, and describe seven DL methods for forecasting future landslide displacement: multi-layer perception (MLP), LSTM, GRU, 1D convolutional neural network (1D CNN), 2xLSTM, bidirectional LSTM (bi-LSTM), and an architecture composed of 1D CNN and LSTM (Conv-LSTM). The investigation focuses on four landslides with different geographic locations, geological settings, time step dimensions, and measurement instruments. Two landslides are located in an artificial reservoir context, while the displacement of the other two is influenced just by rainfall. The results reveal that the MLP, GRU, and LSTM models can make reliable predictions in all four scenarios, while the Conv- LSTM model outperforms the others in the Baishuihe landslide, where the landslide is highly seasonal. No evident performance differences were found for landslides inside artificial reservoirs rather than outside. Furthermore, the research shows that MLP is better adapted to forecast the highest displacement peaks, while LSTM and GRU are better suited to model lower displacement peaks. We believe the findings of this research will serve as a precious aid when implementing a DL-based landslide early warning system (LEWS).SUPPORTO SCIENTIFICO PER L’OTTIMIZZAZIONE, IMPLEMENTAZIONE E GESTIONE DEL SISTEMA DI MONITORAGGIO CON AGGIORNAMENTO DELLE SOGLIE DI ALLERTAMENTO DEL FENOMENO FRANOSO DI SANT’ANDREA – PERAROLO DI CADORE (BL)” and the Spanish Grant “SARAI, PID2020-116540RB-C21,MCIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033” and “RISKCOASTInSAR displacement data of the El Arrecife landslideGeohazard Exploitation Platform (GEP) of the European Space AgencyNoR Projects Sponsorship (Project ID: 63737

Flood Forecasting Using Machine Learning Methods

This book is a printed edition of the Special Issue Flood Forecasting Using Machine Learning Methods that was published in Wate

Machine Learning with Metaheuristic Algorithms for Sustainable Water Resources Management

The main aim of this book is to present various implementations of ML methods and metaheuristic algorithms to improve modelling and prediction hydrological and water resources phenomena having vital importance in water resource management

Hydro-Ecological Modeling

Water is not only an interesting object to be studied on its own, it also is an important component driving almost all ecological processes occurring in our landscapes. Plant growth depends on soil water content, as well is nutrient turnover by microbes. Water shapes the environment by erosion and sedimentation. Species occur or are lost depending on hydrological conditions, and many infectious diseases are water-borne. Modeling the complex interactions of water and ecosystem processes requires the prediction of hydrological fluxes and stages on the one side and the coupling of the ecosystem process model on the other. While much effort has been given to the development of the hydrological model theory in recent decades, we have just begun to explore the difficulties that occur when coupled model applications are being set up

Groundwater Management Optimization and Saltwater Intrusion Mitigation under Uncertainty

Groundwater is valuable to supply fresh water to the public, industries, agriculture, etc. However, excessive pumping has caused groundwater storage degradation, water quality deterioration and saltwater intrusion problems. Reliable groundwater flow and solute transport modeling is needed for sustainable groundwater management and aquifer remediation design. However, challenges exist because of highly complex subsurface environments, computationally intensive groundwater models as well as inevitable uncertainties. The first research goal is to explore conjunctive use of feasible hydraulic control approaches for groundwater management and aquifer remediation. Water budget analysis is conducted to understand how groundwater withdrawals affect water levels. A mixed integer multi-objective optimization model is constructed to derive optimal freshwater pumping strategies and investigate how to promote the optimality through regulating pumping locations. A solute transport model for the Baton Rouge multi-aquifer system is developed to assess saltwater encroachment under current condition. Potential saltwater scavenging approach is proposed to mitigate the salinization issue in the Baton Rouge area. The second research goal aims to develop robust surrogate-assisted simulation-optimization modeling methods for saltwater intrusion mitigation. Machine learning based surrogate models (response surface regression model, artificial neural network and support vector machine) were developed to replace a complex high-fidelity solute transport model for predicting saltwater intrusion. Two different methods including Bayesian model averaging and Bayesian set pair analysis are used to construct ensemble surrogates and quantify model prediction uncertainties. Besides. different optimization models that incorporate multiple ensemble surrogates are formulated to obtain optimal saltwater scavenging strategies. Chance-constrained programming is used to account for model selection uncertainty in probabilistic nonlinear concentration constraints. The results show that conjunctive use of hydraulic control approaches would be effective to mitigate saltwater intrusion but needs decades. Machine learning based ensemble surrogates can build accurate models with high computing efficiency, and hence save great efforts in groundwater remediation design. Including model selection uncertainty through multimodel inference and model averaging provides more reliable remediation strategies compared with the single-surrogate assisted approach

Improving hydrologic modeling of runoff processes using data-driven models

2021 Spring.Includes bibliographical references.Accurate rainfall–runoff simulation is essential for responding to natural disasters, such as floods and droughts, and for proper water resources management in a wide variety of fields, including hydrology, agriculture, and environmental studies. A hydrologic model aims to analyze the nonlinear and complex relationship between rainfall and runoff based on empirical equations and multiple parameters. To obtain reliable results of runoff simulations, it is necessary to consider three tasks, namely, reasonably diagnosing the modeling performance, managing the uncertainties in the modeling outcome, and simulating runoff considering various conditions. Recently, with the advancement of computing systems, technology, resources, and information, data-driven models are widely used in various fields such as language translation, image classification, and time-series analysis. In addition, as spatial and temporal resolutions of observations are improved, the applicability of data-driven models, which require massive amounts of datasets, is rapidly increasing. In hydrology, rainfall–runoff simulation requires various datasets including meteorological, topographical, and soil properties with multiple time steps from sub-hourly to monthly. This research investigates whether data-driven approaches can be effectively applied for runoff analysis. In particular, this research aims to explore if data-driven models can 1) reasonably evaluate hydrologic models, 2) improve the modeling performance, and 3) predict hourly runoff using distributed forcing datasets. The details of these three research aspects are as follows: First, this research developed a hydrologic assessment tool using a hybrid framework, which combines two data-driven models, to evaluate the performance of a hydrologic model for runoff simulation. The National Water Model, which is a fully distributed hydrologic model, was used as the physical-based model. The developed assessment tool aims to provide easy-to-understand performance ratings for the simulated hydrograph components, namely, the rising and recession limbs, as well as for the entire hydrograph, against observed runoff data. In this research, four performance ratings were used. This is the first research that tries to apply data-driven models for evaluating the performance of the National Water Model and the results are expected to reasonably diagnose the model's ability for runoff simulations based on a short-term time step. Second, correction of errors inherent in the predicted runoff is essential for efficient water management. Hydrologic models include various parameters that cannot be measured directly, but they can be adjusted to improve the predictive performance. However, even a calibrated model still has obvious errors in predicting runoff. In this research, a data-driven model was applied to correct errors in the predicted runoff from the National Water Model and improve its predictive performance. The proposed method uses historic errors in runoff to predict new errors as a post-processor. This research shows that data-driven models, which can build algorithms based on the relationships between datasets, have strong potential for correcting errors and improving the predictive performance of hydrologic models. Finally, to simulate rainfall-runoff accurately, it is essential to consider various factors such as precipitation, soil property, and runoff coming from upstream regions. With improvements in observation systems and resources, various types of forcing datasets, including remote-sensing based data and data-assimilation system products, are available for hydrologic analysis. In this research, various data-driven models with distributed forcing datasets were applied to perform hourly runoff predictions. The forcing datasets included different hydrologic factors such as soil moisture, precipitation, land surface temperature, and base flow, which were obtained from a data assimilation system. The predicted results were evaluated in terms of seasonal and event-based performances and compared with those of the National Water Model. The results demonstrated that data-driven models for hourly runoff forecasting are effective and useful for short-term runoff prediction and developing flood warning system during wet season

Surface motion prediction and mapping for road infrastructures management by PS-InSAR measurements and machine learning algorithms

This paper introduces a methodology for predicting and mapping surface motion beneath road pavement structures caused by environmental factors. Persistent Scatterer Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (PS-InSAR) measurements, geospatial analyses, and Machine Learning Algorithms (MLAs) are employed for achieving the purpose. Two single learners, i.e., Regression Tree (RT) and Support Vector Machine (SVM), and two ensemble learners, i.e., Boosted Regression Trees (BRT) and Random Forest (RF) are utilized for estimating the surface motion ratio in terms of mm/year over the Province of Pistoia (Tuscany Region, central Italy, 964 km2), in which strong subsidence phenomena have occurred. The interferometric process of 210 Sentinel-1 images from 2014 to 2019 allows exploiting the average displacements of 52,257 Persistent Scatterers as output targets to predict. A set of 29 environmental-related factors are preprocessed by SAGA-GIS, version 2.3.2, and ESRI ArcGIS, version 10.5, and employed as input features. Once the dataset has been prepared, three wrapper feature selection approaches (backward, forward, and bi-directional) are used for recognizing the set of most relevant features to be used in the modeling. A random splitting of the dataset in 70% and 30% is implemented to identify the training and test set. Through a Bayesian Optimization Algorithm (BOA) and a 10-Fold Cross-Validation (CV), the algorithms are trained and validated. Therefore, the Predictive Performance of MLAs is evaluated and compared by plotting the Taylor Diagram. Outcomes show that SVM and BRT are the most suitable algorithms; in the test phase, BRT has the highest Correlation Coefficient (0.96) and the lowest Root Mean Square Error (0.44 mm/year), while the SVM has the lowest difference between the standard deviation of its predictions (2.05 mm/year) and that of the reference samples (2.09 mm/year). Finally, algorithms are used for mapping surface motion over the study area. We propose three case studies on critical stretches of two-lane rural roads for evaluating the reliability of the procedure. Road authorities could consider the proposed methodology for their monitoring, management, and planning activities

Seepage criteria based optimal design of water retaining structures with reliability quantification utilizing surrogate model linked simulation-optimization approach

The safety of hydraulic water retaining structures (HWRS) is an important issue as many instances of HWRS failure have been reported. Failure of HWRS may lead to catastrophic events, especially those associated with seepage failures. Therefore, seepage safety factors recommended for HWRS design are generally very conservative. These safety factors have been developed based on approximation calculations, unreliable assumptions, and ideal experimental conditions, which are rarely replicated in real field situations. However, with the development of the numerical methods, and high speed processors, more accurate seepage analysis has become possible, even for complex flow domains, different scenarios of boundary conditions, and varied hydraulic conductivity. On the other hand, because construction of HWRS requires a significant amount of construction material and engineering effort, the construction cost efficiency of HWRS is an issue that must be considered in design of HWRS. This study aims to determine the minimum cost design of HWRS constructed on permeable soils, incorporating numerical solutions of a seepage system related to HWRS, utilizing linked a simulation–optimization (S-O) model. Due to the complexity and inefficacy of directly linking a simulation model to the optimization model, the numerical simulation model was replaced by trained surrogate models. These surrogate models can be trained based on numerically simulated data sets. Therefore, trained surrogate models expeditiously and accurately provide predicted responses relating to seepage characteristics pertaining to HWRS. The optimization model based on the linked S-O technique incorporated different safety factors and hydraulic structure design requirements as constraints. The majority of these constraints and objective function(s) were affected by the responses of predicted seepage characteristics based on the developed surrogate models. To improve the safety of HWRS design, the effect of non-homogenous and anisotropic hydraulic conductivity were incorporated in the S-O model. Obtained solution results demonstrated that considering stratification of the flow domain due to different hydraulic conductivity values or anisotropic ratios can significantly change the optimum design of HWRS. Low hydraulic conductivity and anisotropic ratios resulted in more critical seepage characteristics. Consequently, the minimum construction cost increased due to an increase of dimensions of involved seepage protection design variables. Furthermore, uncertainty in estimating hydraulic conductivity is incorporated in the S-O model. The reliability based optimal design (RBOD) framework based on the multi-realization optimization technique was implemented using the S-O model. The uncertainty in seepage quantities due to uncertainty of hydraulic conductivity was represented using many stochastic ensemble surrogate models. Each ensemble model included many surrogate models trained in utilizing input– output data sets simulated with different scenarios of hydraulic conductivity drawn from diverse random fields based on different log-normal distributions. Obtained results of this approach demonstrated substantial consequences of considering uncertainty in hydraulic conductivity. Also, the deterministic safety factors, especially for those pertaining to the exit gradient, were insufficient to provide prescribed safety in the long term. Although surrogate models are utilized in S-O approaches, each run of the S-O model takes a long time as developed S-O models are applied to complex and large scale problems. Hence, efficiency of the S-O model was a key factor to successfully implement the methodology. Three main techniques were utilized to increase the efficiency of the S-O technique: using parallel computing, utilizing nested function technique, and using a vectorised formulation system. These strategies substantially boosted efficiency of implementing the S-O model. The S-O models were implemented for many hypothetical scenarios for different purposes. In general, results demonstrated that optimum design of the seepage protection system relating to HWRS design must include two end cut-offs with an apron between them. The dimensions of these components were augmented with an increase of upstream water head, and reduction of anisotropic ratios or hydraulic conductivity value. The main role of the downstream cut-off was to decrease the actual exit gradient value. This impact is more pronounced if the inclination angle of the cut-off is toward the downstream side (>90 degrees). The role of the upstream cut-off was to decrease uplift pressure values on the HWRS base. Consequently, this partially contributed to decreasing the exit gradient value. The effect of the upstream cut-off in reducing the uplift pressure was more when the inclination angle was toward the upstream side (<90 degrees). Moreover, the apron (floor) width helped to increase the stability of HWRS. This variable provided the required weight to improve HWRS resistance to external hydraulic forces and to uplift pressure. Incorporating the weight of water (hydrostatic pressure) at the upstream side in counterbalancing momentum and hydraulic forces showed improvement in the safety of the HWRS. Also, all conditions and safety factors pertaining to HWRS design were satisfied. The exit gradient safety factor was the most important critical factor affecting optimum design as obtained optimum solutions satisfied the minimum permissible values of the exit gradient safety factor, i.e., at the minimum permissible value. Also, the eccentric load condition played a crucial role in resulting optimum solutions. Finally, applying the S-O model to obtain reliable and safe design of HWRS at minimum cost was successfully implemented for performance evaluation purposes. This technique may be extended to incorporate more complex scenarios in HWRS design where the impact of dynamic and seismic load could be incorporated. The effect of unsteady state seepage system could be another interesting direction for future studies. Further, incorporating more sources of the uncertainty associated with design parameters could achieve a more accurate estimation of actual safety for the HWRS design

Applications of machine learning to water resources management: A review of present status and future opportunities

Data availability: No data was used for the research described in the article.The corrected proof will be replaced by version of record in due course.Copyright © 2024 The Authors. Water is the most valuable natural resource on earth that plays a critical role in the socio-economic development of humans worldwide. Water is used for various purposes, including, but not limited to, drinking, recreation, irrigation, and hydropower production. The expected population growth at a global scale, coupled with the predicted climate change-induced impacts, warrants the need for proactive and effective management of water resources. Over the recent decades, machine learning tools have been widely applied to various water resources management-related fields and have often shown promising results. Despite the publication of several review articles on machine learning applications in water-related fields, this review paper presents for the first time a comprehensive review of machine learning techniques applied to water resources management, focusing on the most recent achievements. The study examines the potential for advanced machine learning techniques to improve decision support systems in the various sectors within the realm of water resources management, which includes groundwater management, streamflow forecasting, water distribution systems, water quality and wastewater treatment, water demand and consumption, hydropower and marine energy, water drainage systems, and flood management and defence. This study provides an overview of the state-of-the-art machine learning approaches to the water industry and how they can be used to ensure water supply sustainability, quality, and flood and drought mitigation. This review covers the most recent related studies to provide the most recent snapshot of machine learning applications in the water industry. Overall, LSTM networks have been proven to exhibit reliable performance, often outperforming ANN models, traditional machine learning models, and established physics-based models. Hybrid ML techniques have exhibited great forecasting accuracy across all water-related fields, often showing superior computational power over traditional ANNs architectures. In addition to purely data-driven models, physical-based hybrid models have also been developed to improve prediction performance. These efforts further demonstrate that Machine learning can be a powerful practical tool for water resources management. It provides insights, predictions, and optimisation capabilities to help enhance sustainable water use and management and improve socio-economic development, healthy ecosystems and human existence.EPSRC project reference 2339403 to S. Sayed and A. Ahmed