Hybrid SGP4 orbit propagator

Two-Line Elements (TLEs) continue to be the sole public source of orbiter observations. The accuracy of TLE propagations through the Simplified General Perturbations-4 (SGP4) software decreases dramatically as the propagation horizon increases, and thus the period of validity of TLEs is very limited. As a result, TLEs are gradually becoming insufficient for the growing demands of Space Situational Awareness (SSA). We propose a technique, based on the hybrid propagation methodology, aimed at extending TLE validity with minimal changes to the current TLE-SGP4 system in a non-intrusive way. It requires that the institution in possession of the osculating elements distributes hybrid TLEs, HTLEs, which encapsulate the standard TLE and the model of its propagation error. The validity extension can be accomplished when the end user processes HTLEs through the hybrid SGP4 propagator, HSGP4, which comprises the standard SGP4 and an error corrector.Comment: 18 pages, 4 figure

Corrective receding horizon EV charge scheduling using short-term solar forecasting

Forecast errors can cause sub-optimal solutions in resource planning optimization, yet they are usually modeled simplistically by statistical models, causing unrealistic impacts on the optimal solutions. In this paper, realistic forecast errors are prescribed, and a corrective approach is proposed to mitigate the negative effects of day-ahead persistence forecast error by short-term forecasts from a state-of-the-art sky imager system. These forecasts preserve the spatiotemporal dependence structure of forecast errors avoiding statistical approximations. The performance of the proposed algorithm is tested on a receding horizon quadratic program developed for valley filling the midday net load depression through electric vehicle charging. Throughout one month of simulations the ability to flatten net load is assessed under practical forecast accuracy levels achievable from persistence, sky imager and perfect forecasts. Compared to using day-ahead persistence solar forecasts, the proposed corrective approach using sky imager forecasts delivers a 25% reduction in the standard deviation of the daily net load. It is demonstrated that correcting day-ahead forecasts in real time with more accurate short-term forecasts benefits the valley filling solution

Wind Power Forecasting Methods Based on Deep Learning: A Survey

Accurate wind power forecasting in wind farm can effectively reduce the enormous impact on grid operation safety when high permeability intermittent power supply is connected to the power grid. Aiming to provide reference strategies for relevant researchers as well as practical applications, this paper attempts to provide the literature investigation and methods analysis of deep learning, enforcement learning and transfer learning in wind speed and wind power forecasting modeling. Usually, wind speed and wind power forecasting around a wind farm requires the calculation of the next moment of the definite state, which is usually achieved based on the state of the atmosphere that encompasses nearby atmospheric pressure, temperature, roughness, and obstacles. As an effective method of high-dimensional feature extraction, deep neural network can theoretically deal with arbitrary nonlinear transformation through proper structural design, such as adding noise to outputs, evolutionary learning used to optimize hidden layer weights, optimize the objective function so as to save information that can improve the output accuracy while filter out the irrelevant or less affected information for forecasting. The establishment of high-precision wind speed and wind power forecasting models is always a challenge due to the randomness, instantaneity and seasonal characteristics

Data-Driven Forecasting of High-Dimensional Chaotic Systems with Long Short-Term Memory Networks

We introduce a data-driven forecasting method for high-dimensional chaotic systems using long short-term memory (LSTM) recurrent neural networks. The proposed LSTM neural networks perform inference of high-dimensional dynamical systems in their reduced order space and are shown to be an effective set of nonlinear approximators of their attractor. We demonstrate the forecasting performance of the LSTM and compare it with Gaussian processes (GPs) in time series obtained from the Lorenz 96 system, the Kuramoto-Sivashinsky equation and a prototype climate model. The LSTM networks outperform the GPs in short-term forecasting accuracy in all applications considered. A hybrid architecture, extending the LSTM with a mean stochastic model (MSM-LSTM), is proposed to ensure convergence to the invariant measure. This novel hybrid method is fully data-driven and extends the forecasting capabilities of LSTM networks.Comment: 31 page

Chemical and biological reactions of solidification of peat using ordinary portland cement (OPC) and coal ashes

Construction over peat area have often posed a challenge to geotechnical engineers. After decades of study on peat stabilisation techniques, there are still no absolute formulation or guideline that have been established to handle this issue. Some researchers have proposed solidification of peat but a few researchers have also discovered that solidified peat seemed to decrease its strength after a certain period of time. Therefore, understanding the chemical and biological reaction behind the peat solidification is vital to understand the limitation of this treatment technique. In this study, all three types of peat; fabric, hemic and sapric were mixed using Mixing 1 and Mixing 2 formulation which consisted of ordinary Portland cement, fly ash and bottom ash at various ratio. The mixtures of peat-binder-filler were subjected to the unconfined compressive strength (UCS) test, bacterial count test and chemical elemental analysis by using XRF, XRD, FTIR and EDS. Two pattern of strength over curing period were observed. Mixing 1 samples showed a steadily increase in strength over curing period until Day 56 while Mixing 2 showed a decrease in strength pattern at Day 28 and Day 56. Samples which increase in strength steadily have less bacterial count and enzymatic activity with increase quantity of crystallites. Samples with lower strength recorded increase in bacterial count and enzymatic activity with less crystallites. Analysis using XRD showed that pargasite (NaCa2[Mg4Al](Si6Al2)O22(OH)2) was formed in the higher strength samples while in the lower strength samples, pargasite was predicted to be converted into monosodium phosphate and Mg(OH)2 as bacterial consortium was re-activated. The Michaelis�Menten coefficient, Km of the bio-chemical reaction in solidified peat was calculated as 303.60. This showed that reaction which happened during solidification work was inefficient. The kinetics for crystallite formation with enzymatic effect is modelled as 135.42 (1/[S] + 0.44605) which means, when pargasite formed is lower, the amount of enzyme secretes is higher