Scalable Approach to Uncertainty Quantification and Robust Design of Interconnected Dynamical Systems

Development of robust dynamical systems and networks such as autonomous aircraft systems capable of accomplishing complex missions faces challenges due to the dynamically evolving uncertainties coming from model uncertainties, necessity to operate in a hostile cluttered urban environment, and the distributed and dynamic nature of the communication and computation resources. Model-based robust design is difficult because of the complexity of the hybrid dynamic models including continuous vehicle dynamics, the discrete models of computations and communications, and the size of the problem. We will overview recent advances in methodology and tools to model, analyze, and design robust autonomous aerospace systems operating in uncertain environment, with stress on efficient uncertainty quantification and robust design using the case studies of the mission including model-based target tracking and search, and trajectory planning in uncertain urban environment. To show that the methodology is generally applicable to uncertain dynamical systems, we will also show examples of application of the new methods to efficient uncertainty quantification of energy usage in buildings, and stability assessment of interconnected power networks

Improvement of Automated POST Case Success Rate Using Support Vector Machines

During early conceptual design of complex systems, concept down selection can have a large impact upon program life-cycle cost. Therefore, any concepts selected during early design will inherently commit program costs and affect the overall probability of program success. For this reason it is important to consider as large a design space as possible in order to better inform the down selection process. For conceptual design of launch vehicles, trajectory analysis and optimization often presents the largest obstacle to evaluating large trade spaces. This is due to the sensitivity of the trajectory discipline to changes in all other aspects of the vehicle design. Small deltas in the performance of other subsystems can result in relatively large fluctuations in the ascent trajectory because the solution space is non-linear and multi-modal [1]. In order to help capture large design spaces for new launch vehicles, the authors have performed previous work seeking to automate the execution of the industry standard tool, Program to Optimize Simulated Trajectories (POST). This work initially focused on implementation of analyst heuristics to enable closure of cases in an automated fashion, with the goal of applying the concepts of design of experiments (DOE) and surrogate modeling to enable near instantaneous throughput of vehicle cases [2]. Additional work was then completed to improve the DOE process by utilizing a graph theory based approach to connect similar design points [3]. The conclusion of the previous work illustrated the utility of the graph theory approach for completing a DOE through POST. However, this approach was still dependent upon the use of random repetitions to generate seed points for the graph. As noted in [3], only 8% of these random repetitions resulted in converged trajectories. This ultimately affects the ability of the random reps method to confidently approach the global optima for a given vehicle case in a reasonable amount of time. With only an 8% pass rate, tens or hundreds of thousands of reps may be needed to be confident that the best repetition is at least close to the global optima. However, typical design study time constraints require that fewer repetitions be attempted, sometimes resulting in seed points that have only a handful of successful completions. If a small number of successful repetitions are used to generate a seed point, the graph method may inherit some inaccuracies as it chains DOE cases from the non-global-optimal seed points. This creates inherent noise in the graph data, which can limit the accuracy of the resulting surrogate models. For this reason, the goal of this work is to improve the seed point generation method and ultimately the accuracy of the resulting POST surrogate model. The work focuses on increasing the case pass rate for seed point generation

Mobile Formation Coordination and Tracking Control for Multiple Non-holonomic Vehicles

This paper addresses forward motion control for trajectory tracking and mobile formation coordination for a group of non-holonomic vehicles on SE(2). Firstly, by constructing an intermediate attitude variable which involves vehicles' position information and desired attitude, the translational and rotational control inputs are designed in two stages to solve the trajectory tracking problem. Secondly, the coordination relationships of relative positions and headings are explored thoroughly for a group of non-holonomic vehicles to maintain a mobile formation with rigid body motion constraints. We prove that, except for the cases of parallel formation and translational straight line formation, a mobile formation with strict rigid-body motion can be achieved if and only if the ratios of linear speed to angular speed for each individual vehicle are constants. Motion properties for mobile formation with weak rigid-body motion are also demonstrated. Thereafter, based on the proposed trajectory tracking approach, a distributed mobile formation control law is designed under a directed tree graph. The performance of the proposed controllers is validated by both numerical simulations and experiments

Stability Margin Scaling Laws for Distributed Formation Control as a Function of Network Structure

We consider the problem of distributed formation control of a large number of vehicles. An individual vehicle in the formation is assumed to be a fully actuated point mass. A distributed control law is examined: the control action on an individual vehicle depends on (i) its own velocity and (ii) the relative position measurements with a small subset of vehicles (neighbors) in the formation. The neighbors are defined according to an information graph. In this paper we describe a methodology for modeling, analysis, and distributed control design of such vehicular formations whose information graph is a D-dimensional lattice. The modeling relies on an approximation based on a partial differential equation (PDE) that describes the spatio-temporal evolution of position errors in the formation. The analysis and control design is based on the PDE model. We deduce asymptotic formulae for the closed-loop stability margin (absolute value of the real part of the least stable eigenvalue) of the controlled formation. The stability margin is shown to approach 0 as the number of vehicles N goes to infinity. The exponent on the scaling law for the stability margin is influenced by the dimension and the structure of the information graph. We show that the scaling law can be improved by employing a higher dimensional information graph. Apart from analysis, the PDE model is used for a mistuning-based design of control gains to maximize the stability margin. Mistuning here refers to small perturbation of control gains from their nominal symmetric values. We show that the mistuned design can have a significantly better stability margin even with a small amount of perturbation. The results of the analysis with the PDE model are corroborated with numerical computation of eigenvalues with the state-space model of the formation.Comment: This paper is the expanded version of the paper with the same name which is accepted by the IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control. The final version is updated on Oct. 12, 201

Controlling Concurrent Change - A Multiview Approach Toward Updatable Vehicle Automation Systems

The development of SAE Level 3+ vehicles [{SAE}, 2014] poses new challenges not only for the functional development, but also for design and development processes. Such systems consist of a growing number of interconnected functional, as well as hardware and software components, making safety design increasingly difficult. In order to cope with emergent behavior at the vehicle level, thorough systems engineering becomes a key requirement, which enables traceability between different design viewpoints. Ensuring traceability is a key factor towards an efficient validation and verification of such systems. Formal models can in turn assist in keeping track of how the different viewpoints relate to each other and how the interplay of components affects the overall system behavior. Based on experience from the project Controlling Concurrent Change, this paper presents an approach towards model-based integration and verification of a cause effect chain for a component-based vehicle automation system. It reasons on a cross-layer model of the resulting system, which covers necessary aspects of a design in individual architectural views, e.g. safety and timing. In the synthesis stage of integration, our approach is capable of inserting enforcement mechanisms into the design to ensure adherence to the model. We present a use case description for an environment perception system, starting with a functional architecture, which is the basis for componentization of the cause effect chain. By tying the vehicle architecture to the cross-layer integration model, we are able to map the reasoning done during verification to vehicle behavior