Géosimulation multi-niveau de phénomènes complexes basés sur les multiples interactions spatio-temporelles de nombreux acteurs : développement d'un outil générique d'aide à la décision pour la propagation des zoonoses

Nous proposons dans cette thèse une nouvelle approche de géosimulation multi-niveau permettant de simuler la propagation d’une zoonose (maladie infectieuse qui se transmet des animaux aux humains) à différents niveaux de granularité. Cette approche est caractérisée entre autres par l’utilisation d’un modèle théorique original que nous avons nommé MASTIM (Multi-Actor Spatio-Temporal Interaction Model) permettant de simuler des populations contenant un nombre considérable d’individus en utilisant des modèles compartimentaux enrichis. MASTIM permet de spécifier non seulement l’évolution de ces populations, mais également les aspects relatifs aux interactions spatio-temporelles de ces populations incluant leurs déplacements dans l’environnement de simulation géoréférencé. Notre approche de géosimulation multi-niveau est caractérisée également par l’utilisation d’un environnement géographique virtuel informé (IVGE) qui est composé d’un ensemble de cellules élémentaires dans lesquelles les transitions des différents stades biologiques des populations concernées, ainsi que leurs interactions peuvent être plausiblement simulées. Par ailleurs, nous avons appliqué nos travaux de recherche au développement d’outils d’aide à la décision. Nous avons acquis une première expérience avec le développement d’un outil (WNV-MAGS) dont l’objectif principal est de simuler les comportements des populations de moustiques (Culex) et des oiseaux (corneilles) qui sont impliquées dans la propagation du Virus du Nil Occidental (VNO). Nous avons par la suite participé au développement d’un outil générique (Zoonosis-MAGS) qui peut être utilisé pour simuler la propagation d'une variété de zoonoses telles que la maladie de Lyme et le VNO. Ces outils pourraient fournir des informations utiles aux décideurs de la santé publique et les aider à prendre des décisions informées. En outre, nous pensons que nos travaux de recherche peuvent être appliqués non seulement au phénomène de la propagation des zoonoses, mais également à d’autres phénomènes faisant intervenir des interactions spatio-temporelles entre différents acteurs de plusieurs types.We propose in this thesis a new multi-level geosimulation approach to simulate the spread of a zoonosis (infectious disease transmitted from animals to humans) at different levels of granularity. This approach is characterized by using an original theoretical model named MASTIM (Multi-Actor Spatio-Temporal Interaction Model) which can be applied to simulate populations containing a huge number of individuals using extended compartmental models. MASTIM may specify not only the evolution of these populations, but also the aspects related to their spatio-temporal interactions, including their movements in the simulated georeferenced environment. Our multi-level geosimulation approach take advantage of an informed virtual geographic environment (IVGE) composed of a set of elementary cells in which the transitions of the different biological stages of the involved populations, as well as their interactions can be simulated plausibly. Furthermore, this approach has been applied to develop decision support tools. We got a first experience with the development of WNV-MAGS, a tool whose main purpose is to simulate the populations’ behavior of mosquitoes (Culex) and birds (crows), which are involved in the spread of West Nile Virus (WNV). We subsequently participated in the development of a generic tool (Zoonosis-MAGS) that can be used to simulate the spread of a variety of zoonoses such as Lyme disease and WNV. These tools may provide useful information to help public health officers to make informed decisions. Besides, we believe that this research can be applied not only to the spread of zoonoses, but also to other phenomena involving spatio-temporal interactions between different actors of different types

Ecology-based planning. Italian and French experimentations

This paper examines some French and Italian experimentations of green infrastructures’ (GI) construction in relation to their techniques and methodologies. The construction of a multifunctional green infrastructure can lead to the generation of a number of relevant bene fi ts able to face the increasing challenges of climate change and resilience (for example, social, ecological and environmental through the recognition of the concept of ecosystem services) and could ease the achievement of a performance-based approach. This approach, differently from the traditional prescriptive one, helps to attain a better and more fl exible land-use integration. In both countries, GI play an important role in contrasting land take and, for their adaptive and cross-scale nature, they help to generate a res ilient approach to urban plans and projects. Due to their fl exible and site-based nature, GI can be adapted, even if through different methodologies and approaches, both to urban and extra-urban contexts. On one hand, France, through its strong national policy on ecological networks, recognizes them as one of the major planning strategies toward a more sustainable development of territories; on the other hand, Italy has no national policy and Regions still have a hard time integrating them in already existing planning tools. In this perspective, Italian experimentations on GI construction appear to be a simple and sporadic add-on of urban and regional plans

Environmental and territorial modelling for planning and design

Between 5th and 8th September 2018 the tenth edition of the INPUT conference took place in Viterbo, guests of the beautiful setting of the University of Tuscia and its DAFNE Department. INPUT is managed by an informal group of Italian academic researchers working in many fields related to the exploitation of informatics in planning. This Tenth Edition pursed multiple objectives with a holistic, boundary-less character, to face the complexity of today socio-ecological systems following a systemic approach aimed to problem solving. In particular, the Conference will aim to present the state of art of modeling approaches employed in urban and territorial planning in national and international contexts. Moreover, the conference has hosted a Geodesign workshop, by Carl Steinitz (Harvard Graduate School of Design) and Hrishi Ballal (on skype), Tess Canfield, Michele Campagna. Finally, on the last day of the conference, took place the QGIS hackfest, in which over 20 free software developers from all over Italy discussed the latest news and updates from the QGIS network. The acronym INPUT was born as INformatics for Urban and Regional Planning. In the transition to graphics, unintentionally, the first term was transformed into “Innovation”, with a fine example of serendipity, in which a small mistake turns into something new and intriguing. The opportunity is taken to propose to the organizers and the scientific committee of the next appointment to formalize this change of the acronym. This 10th edition was focused on Environmental and Territorial Modeling for planning and design. It has been considered a fundamental theme, especially in relation to the issue of environmental sustainability, which requires a rigorous and in-depth analysis of processes, a theme which can be satisfied by the territorial information systems and, above all, by modeling simulation of processes. In this topic, models are useful with the managerial approach, to highlight the many aspects of complex city and landscape systems. In consequence, their use must be deeply critical, not for rigid forecasts, but as an aid to the management decisions of complex systems

An Initial Framework Assessing the Safety of Complex Systems

Trabajo presentado en la Conference on Complex Systems, celebrada online del 7 al 11 de diciembre de 2020.Atmospheric blocking events, that is large-scale nearly stationary atmospheric pressure patterns, are often associated with extreme weather in the mid-latitudes, such as heat waves and cold spells which have significant consequences on ecosystems, human health and economy. The high impact of blocking events has motivated numerous studies. However, there is not yet a comprehensive theory explaining their onset, maintenance and decay and their numerical prediction remains a challenge. In recent years, a number of studies have successfully employed complex network descriptions of fluid transport to characterize dynamical patterns in geophysical flows. The aim of the current work is to investigate the potential of so called Lagrangian flow networks for the detection and perhaps forecasting of atmospheric blocking events. The network is constructed by associating nodes to regions of the atmosphere and establishing links based on the flux of material between these nodes during a given time interval. One can then use effective tools and metrics developed in the context of graph theory to explore the atmospheric flow properties. In particular, Ser-Giacomi et al. [1] showed how optimal paths in a Lagrangian flow network highlight distinctive circulation patterns associated with atmospheric blocking events. We extend these results by studying the behavior of selected network measures (such as degree, entropy and harmonic closeness centrality)at the onset of and during blocking situations, demonstrating their ability to trace the spatio-temporal characteristics of these events.This research was conducted as part of the CAFE (Climate Advanced Forecasting of sub-seasonal Extremes) Innovative Training Network which has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under the Marie Skłodowska-Curie grant agreement No. 813844

Advances in Computational Social Science and Social Simulation

Aquesta conferència és la celebració conjunta de la "10th Artificial Economics Conference AE", la "10th Conference of the European Social Simulation Association ESSA" i la "1st Simulating the Past to Understand Human History SPUHH".Conferència organitzada pel Laboratory for Socio­-Historical Dynamics Simulation (LSDS-­UAB) de la Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona.Readers will find results of recent research on computational social science and social simulation economics, management, sociology,and history written by leading experts in the field. SOCIAL SIMULATION (former ESSA) conferences constitute annual events which serve as an international platform for the exchange of ideas and discussion of cutting edge research in the field of social simulations, both from the theoretical as well as applied perspective, and the 2014 edition benefits from the cross-fertilization of three different research communities into one single event. The volume consists of 122 articles, corresponding to most of the contributions to the conferences, in three different formats: short abstracts (presentation of work-in-progress research), posters (presentation of models and results), and full papers (presentation of social simulation research including results and discussion). The compilation is completed with indexing lists to help finding articles by title, author and thematic content. We are convinced that this book will serve interested readers as a useful compendium which presents in a nutshell the most recent advances at the frontiers of computational social sciences and social simulation researc

Villages et quartiers à risque d’abandon

The issue of villages and neighborhoods at risk of abandonment is a common topic in many Mediterranean regions and is considered as a strategic point of the new European policies. The progressive abandonment of inland areas, with phenomena of emigration and fragmentation of cultural heritage, is a common trend in countries characterized by economic underdevelopment. This leads to the decay of architectural artifacts and buildings and problems with land management. Some aspects of this issue are also found in several urban areas. The goal of this research work is collecting international debates, discussions, opinions and comparisons concerning the analysis, study, surveys, diagnoses and graphical rendering of architectural heritage and landscape as well as demo-ethno-anthropological witnesses, typological-constructive stratifications, materials and technologies of traditional and vernacular constructions of historic buildings