Prediction of stroke probability occurrence based on fuzzy cognitive maps

Among neurological patients, stroke is the most common cause of mortality. It is a health problem that is very costly all over the world. Therefore, the mortality due to the disease can be reduced by identifying and modifying the risk factors. Controllable factors which are contributing to stroke including hypertension, diabetes, heart disease, hyperlipidemia, smoking, and obesity. Therefore, by identifying and controlling the risk factors, stroke can be prevented and the effects of this disease could be reduced to a minimum. Therefore, for the quick and timely diagnosis of the disease, we need an intelligent system to predict the stroke risk. In this paper, a method has been proposed for predicting the risk rate of stroke which is based on fuzzy cognitive maps and nonlinear Hebbian learning algorithm. The accuracy of the proposed NHL-FCM model is tested using 15-fold cross-validation, for 90 actual cases, and compared with those of support vector machine and k-nearest neighbours. The proposed method shows superior performance with a total accuracy of (95.4 ± 7.5)%

Identifying key determinants of housing sales and time-on-the-market (TOM) using fuzzy cognitive mapping

Price and residential housing attributes have long been identified as key determinants of home sales and, as such, they can explain time-on-the-market (TOM). It is acknowledged, however, that there are other factors (or determinants) that influence home sales and TOM, which are of great importance but seldom taken into account in the appraisal process of residential real estate. Based on the use of fuzzy cognitive mapping, we propose a framework that adds value to the way that key determinants of housing sales and TOM are identified. This framework is the result of a process involving several residential real estate experts (i.e.appraisers and realtors), and follows a constructivist approach. Our findings suggest that the use of fuzzy cognitive maps (FCMs) allows the number of omitted determinants to be reduced and the understanding of the relationships between them to be improved. The strengths and weaknesses of our methodological framework are also discussed

Are you pleased with your neighborhood? A fuzzy cognitive mapping-based approach for measuring residential neighborhood satisfaction in urban communities

Previous research has indicated that residents’ satisfaction with neighborhood conditions helps shape attitudes and has a high impact on residential valuations. This paper reports on research that sought to analyze the relationship between neighborhood characteristics and residents’ degree of satisfaction. Based on the construction of a fuzzy cognitive map (FCM), which involved residents from several highand low-quality neighborhoods in the Central-West region of Portugal, a framework that adds value to the way key determinants of neighborhood satisfaction are identified is proposed. Because FCMs allow the understanding of the cause-and-effect relationships between factors to be improved, this framework shows that for satisfaction with the neighborhood to increase, more attention needs to be paid to positive attitudes toward subjective variables that interfere with residents’ satisfaction. The results presented can provide relevant information for the effective and efficient planning and development of residential environments. Strengths and weaknesses of this proposal are also discussed

Estrategias de decisión en sistemas dinámicos: aplicando mapas cognitivos difusos aplicación a un ejemplo socio - económico

Situations in which human beings develop their daily tasks are extremely complex and dynamic. In each field, the analysis of the system's variables under consideration can be simplified if the system is conceived as a set of concepts, where a change in each of them will cause changes in the remainder. In the analysis of a particular problem, the representation of concepts in the form of a map helps to synthesize information detecting the main concepts that are linked to the problem. In these cases, Fuzzy Cognitive Maps (FCM) are able to synthesize much of this information. Also with this technique is possible to follow the evolution of the concepts to a state of equilibrium and therefore allow us to study the dynamics that takes the passage from one state to another given the situation under review. This paper describes the construction and analysis of the Fuzzy Cognitive Maps technique through an economy application example. The aim is to present a methodology supported by the FCM to analyze the evolution and impact on the system causing by the change in the value of one or more concepts involved.Las situaciones que abarcan el contexto en que el ser humano desarrolla sus tareas cotidianas son extremadamente complejas y dinámicas. En cada campo, el análisis de las variables que componen el sistema objeto de estudio puede simplificarse si se lo concibe compuesto como un conjunto de conceptos donde un cambio en cada uno de ellos provocará cambios en los restantes. Cuando se trata de analizar la problemática de un área particular, la representación de los conceptos en forma de un mapa permite sintetizar la información aislando los principales conceptos que están vinculados en el problema. En estos casos los Mapas Cognitivos Difusos (MCD) logran sintetizar gran parte de la información presente. Además con esta técnica es posible seguir la evolución de los conceptos hasta un estado de equilibrio y por lo tanto permiten estudiar la dinámica que lleva el pasaje de un estado a otro determinado en la situación que se analiza. En este trabajo se expone la técnica de construcción y análisis de Mapas Cognitivos Difusos a través de un ejemplo de aplicación a la economía. El objetivo consiste en presentar una metodología de trabajo apoyada en los MCD que permite analizar la evolución y el impacto que provoca en el sistema el cambio en el valor de uno o varios conceptos intervinientes

Análise dinâmica dos fatores de atratividade do investimento urbano: uma abordagem FCM-SD

O aumento da população em zonas urbanas, nos últimos anos, motivou o interesse e a importância dada as estas áreas. Neste contexto, as zonas urbanas tornaram-se muito atrativas do ponto de vista do investidor, dada a alargada necessidade e a crescente oportunidade de investimento em zonas que se expandiram. Assim sendo, dada a sua importância ao nível do planeamento estratégico das cidades, torna-se essencial precisar quais os determinantes que atraem o investimento urbano. Desta forma, a presente dissertação propõe-se a identificar quais os determinantes que atraem o investimento urbano, recorrendo, para o efeito, a um painel de especialistas com conhecimento e experiência na área em questão. Metodologicamente, serão aplicadas técnicas de mapeamento cognitivo difuso, com o intuito de entender os conceitos inseridos no modelo e as suas relações de causalidade. Com esta abordagem, foi possível perceber que os determinantes com uma maior influência no "Investimento Urbano" são as "Infraestruturas e Serviços de Apoio", a par dos "Fatores Político-Administrativos". De seguida, procedeu-se à elaboração de diversos cenários, com o propósito de perceber as repercussões de algumas variáveis no sistema global, assim como o dinamismo do modelo construído. Finalmente, são também abordadas as vantagens e as limitações associadas ao modelo, bem como apresentadas algumas recomendações para investigação futura.The increase of population in urban areas in recent years has motivated the interest and importance given to these areas. In this regard, urban areas have become quite attractive from the investor’s point of view, since there has been a wide opportunity and increasing need for investment in these areas. Therefore, at the level of city strategic planning, it seems critical to understand the determinants that attract investment in urban areas. This study sought to identify the determinants that attract urban investment using a panel of experts in this context. Methodologically, fuzzy cognitive mapping techniques were used to understand the concepts included in the model and their cause-and-effect relationships. Based on this approach, it was possible to perceive that the determinants with greater influence on "Urban Investment" are "Infrastructures and Supporting Services" along with "Political- Administrative Factors". Next, diverse scenarios were created with the purpose to perceive the impact of variables’ change on the constructed model. The advantages and limitations of the proposed framework, as well as some recommendations for future research, are also presented

Ідентифікація та керування складними системами на основі моделей імпульсних процесів когнітивних карт

У дисертаційній роботі запропоновано системний підхід до проблеми динамічного прийняття рішень у складних системах, що описуються моделями імпульсних процесів когнітивних карт. А саме, розроблено принципи, підходи та методи ідентифікації та керування цими системами на основі застосування та адаптації методів теорії ідентифікації систем та теорії автоматичного керування. При цьому тестові сигнали або керування подаються безпосередньо на деякі вершини когнітивної карти, або, у разі недостатності таких вершин, в ролі керувань можуть виступати змінні ваги ребер карти. У випадку, коли кількість вершин і/або вагові коефіцієнти ребер когнітивної карти невідомі, запропоновано методи ідентифікації розмірності та параметричної ідентифікації системи. Для стабілізації нестійкої когнітивної карти запропоновано ряд методів на основі методів модального керування та керування по еталонних моделях, інші методи пропонуються для приведення координат вершин когнітивної карти на задані рівні. Практичне значення отриманих результатів проілюстровано на численних прикладах когнітивних карт реальних систем – ІТ компанії, комерційного банку, ринку криптовалюти тощо. Результати впроваджено у компанії “Noosphere” та можуть бути застосовані в подальшому для інших складних систем, представлених за допомогою когнітивних карт.In the thesis the system approach to a problem of dynamic decision - making in the complex systems described by models of impulse processes in cognitive maps is suggested. Cognitive maps are a popular and convenient tool for describing, modelling, and analyzing complex multidimensional multiconnected systems of different origin. From a mathematical point of view, a cognitive map is a weighted directed graph, the nodes of which represent the main components (concepts) of a complex system, and the edges are the relationships between them. The dynamics of a complex system described by a cognitive map can be represented as a so-called impulse process, which (in the form of Roberts) is a first-order vector difference equation. To date, many studies are known on the construction and analysis of cognitive maps, but there is almost no work that would systematically address the problems of identification (evaluation) and control of systems represented by cognitive maps. Here the principles, approaches and methods of identification and control of these systems based on the application and adaptation of methods of the theory of system identification and the theory of automatic control are developed. In this case, test signals or controls are fed directly to some nodes of the cognitive map, or, in case of insufficiency of such nodes, the variable weights of the map edges can act as controls. In the case when the number of nodes and /or weight coefficients of the cognitive map edges are unknown, methods for dimension identification and parametric identification of systems based on data from the measured cognitive map nodes are proposed, with measurement errors considered. To stabilize the unstable cognitive map, a number of methods are proposed based on the methods of modal control and control using reference models; other methods are suggested to set the nodes coordinates of the cognitive map to a given level. Cases of multirate impulse process in the cognitive map, of the presence of unmeasured constrained disturbances of arbitrary nature, of the presence of delays, of the need to control the ratios etc. are considered separately. For control of complex systems, the dynamics of which is presented in the form of impulse processes in cognitive maps, in this thesis the adaptation of methods of the automatic control theory is suggested. The dynamics of the controlled system is written by introducing a control vector that acts directly on the nodes of the cognitive map through the variation of its resources. In simpler cases, it is recommended to use methods based on reference models (if you can vary all nodes) or modal control. Also in the case of stable impulse processes, methods based on minimizing the quadratic optimality criterion can be used. But controls by varying the resources of cognitive map nodes may not be sufficient, because in practice there are often few nodes that a decision maker can actually vary. For this case, the paper first proposes a method of control by varying the weights of the edges of the cognitive map, i.e., essentially by changing the degree of influence of some nodes on others. Then the control vector is the vector of increments of weights of some edges of the cognitive map. The design of a discrete controller for such a controlled impulse process is based on the quadratic optimality criterion for this vector. We also consider the case when a decision maker can use both types of control, i.e. variation of nodes resources, and the degree of their influence on each other. For this purpose the method of combined control is developed. Particular attention is paid to the disclosure of uncertainties that arise in the presence of unmeasurable disturbances of arbitrary nature, acting on the coordinates of the nodes of the cognitive map. These can be both external perturbations (including the influence of unmeasured nodes) and internal perturbations caused by inaccurate identification or timevarying weights of the map edges. It is assumed that nothing is known about these disturbances, except that they are limited. From the control theory point of view, this is the problem of robust control. In this research, two methods of robust control of impulse processes of the cognitive map are developed and investigated - on the basis of the method of invariant ellipsoids and on the basis of the H theory. The practical significance of the obtained results is illustrated by numerous examples of cognitive maps of real systems - an IT company, its human resources department, a commercial bank, a cryptocurrency market, a socio-educational student’s process. The results have been implemented by the IT company “Noosphere”, by the Department of dynamic systems control of Space Research Institute of NASU, in the educational process of Igor Sikorsky KPI and can be used in the future for many complex systems represented by cognitive maps

Desenvolvimento de um sistema multicritério de apoio à avaliação da transferência de conhecimento nas instituições de Ensino Superior

OBJETIVO: O principal objetivo da presente investigação é o desenvolvimento de um sistema multicritério de apoio à avaliação da transferência de conhecimento das Instituições de Ensino Superior (IES) para a Sociedade. Tal sistema permitirá que as IES possam contribuir para ajustar a sua oferta às verdadeiras necessidades do mercado, bem como permitir aos seus gestores a adoção, caso-a-caso, de medidas estratégicas adequadas para que a transferência de conhecimento se concretize. METODOLOGIA: Este estudo assume uma lógica construtivista, que permite a aprendizagem e a compreensão do problema de decisão pelos próprios decisores, através da constituição de um painel de especialistas em transferência de conhecimento. Em termos processuais, foram seguidas as três fases da análise multicritério de apoio à decisão, nomeadamente: (1) fase de estruturação, em que se verificou o recurso a técnicas de mapeamento cognitivo, seguindo a abordagem Strategic Options Development and Analysis (SODA) (Ackermann e Eden, 2011), visando a identificação dos critérios de base a inserir no sistema de avaliação, assim como a definição de descritores que permitiram operacionalizar o sistema de avaliação; (2) fase de avaliação, na qual se aplicaram os procedimentos da abordagem Measuring Attractiveness by a Categorical-Based Evaluation Technique (MACBETH) (Bana e Costa e Vansnick, 1995), no sentido de definir funções de valor e avaliar, local e globalmente, a performance das IES ao nível da transferência de conhecimento; e (3) fase de recomendações, na qual foram identificadas algumas limitações e formuladas recomendações de acordo com os resultados alcançados. RESULTADOS: Com o desenvolvimento da presente investigação, foi possível conceber e aplicar, em contexto real, um sistema multicritério de apoio à avaliação da transferência de conhecimento. Este sistema, para além de incorporar aspetos quantitativos e qualitativos, caracteriza-se pela sua simplicidade, flexibilidade e transparência de processos, tendo a capacidade de integrar, de forma objetiva e equilibrada, critérios intangíveis no processo de apoio à decisão. Apesar da sua natureza idiossincrática e orientada para o processo, os resultados revelam que o sistema desenvolvido é capaz de descriminar as alternativas avaliadas (i.e. IES), em função da sua performance global na transferência de conhecimento, bem como apoiar a formulação de recomendações de melhoria com base nas análises dos perfis locais das IES avaliadas. Reforçados pelas análises de sensibilidade e de robustez realizadas, os processos seguidos na conceção do sistema de avaliação desenvolvido revelam-se uma ferramenta útil e com grande potencial de replicabilidade no domínio da transferência de conhecimento. Tanto quanto foi possível apurar, o uso integrado de técnicas de mapeamento cognitivo com técnicas de área Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA), apresenta-se como de uma abordagem inovadora no âmbito da avaliação da transferência de conhecimento nas IES. CONTRIBUIÇÃO/ORIGINALIDADE: Assumindo uma postura construtivista e orientada para o processo, a construção de um sistema de medição da avaliação da transferência de conhecimento, no âmbito da presente tese, vem colmatar a falta de instrumentos de medição-padrão, bem como a forma como os critérios de avaliação são selecionados e incorporados os mecanismos de avaliação no âmbito da transferência de conhecimento. Oferece também um contributo importante para ultrapassar as dificuldades sentidas pelos atuais modelos de avaliação, no que diz respeito à forma como são calculados os trade-offs (i.e. pesos e taxas de compensação) entre os critérios de avaliação. Tal contributo permite trazer novos conhecimentos para as áreas da gestão estratégica de IES, da transferência de conhecimento e da investigação operacional.PURPOSE: This study sought to develop a multiple criteria framework to support the evaluation of knowledge transfer in Higher Education Institutions (HEIs) in Portugal (i.e. universities and polytechnic institutions). Such a system should allow HEIs to adjust their knowledge supply to market needs, as well as to enable their managers to adopt well-focused initiatives for improving knowledge transfer. METHODOLOGY: This study assumes a constructivist stance, allowing decision makers to learn and better understand the decision problem under study. Grounded on group meetings with a panel of experts in knowledge transfer, the development of our evaluation system followed the three main phases of the multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDA) approach, namely: (1) the structuring phase, where the Strategic Options Development and Analysis (SODA) approach (Ackermann and Eden, 2001) and cognitive mapping techniques were used to identify the criteria to be included in the evaluation system, as well as to analyze their cause-and-effect relationships; (2) the evaluation phase, where the Measuring Attractiveness by a Categorical-Based Evaluation Technique (MACBETH) (Bana and Costa and Vansnick, 1995) was applied to define value functions and allow HEIs to be locally and globally evaluated in terms of knowledge transfer; and (3) the recommendations phase, where some limitations were presented and recommendations were made according to the results achieved. FINDINGS: With the present research, it was possible to develop and apply a multiple criteria system to support the evaluation of knowledge transfer within HEIs. In addition to incorporating quantitative and qualitative measures, this evaluation system is characterized by its simplicity, flexibility and transparency of processes, as well as the ability to integrate, in an objective and balanced way, intangible variables in the decision-making process. Despite their idiosyncratic nature, the results show that the system developed in this study is able to clearly discriminate the evaluated alternatives (i.e. HEIs), according to their overall performance in the transfer of knowledge, as well as to support the formulation of recommendations for improvement. Based on the analysis of the HEIs’ local profiles, which was reinforced by the sensitivity and robustness analyses carried out, the processes followed in the design of our evaluation system proved to be a useful tool, with great potential for replicability, in the domain of knowledge transfer. In light of this reasoning, the integrated use of cognitive mapping techniques and MCDA techniques is presented as an innovative approach in the evaluation of knowledge transfer in HEIs. ORIGINALITY/VALUE: Assuming a constructivist and process-oriented stance, the construction of a measurement system for the evaluation of knowledge transfer, within the scope of the present thesis, addresses the lack of standard measurement instruments, as well as the lack of rationality by which the evaluation criteria are selected and incorporated into the decision-making framework. Our proposal also allows some of the difficulties experienced by the current evaluation practices to be addressed, such as the way trade-offs (i.e. weights and compensation rates) are calculated and made explicit. This allows us to bring new insights to the research areas of strategic management of HEI, knowledge transfer and operational research

Collected Papers (on Neutrosophics, Plithogenics, Hypersoft Set, Hypergraphs, and other topics), Volume X

This tenth volume of Collected Papers includes 86 papers in English and Spanish languages comprising 972 pages, written between 2014-2022 by the author alone or in collaboration with the following 105 co-authors (alphabetically ordered) from 26 countries: Abu Sufian, Ali Hassan, Ali Safaa Sadiq, Anirudha Ghosh, Assia Bakali, Atiqe Ur Rahman, Laura Bogdan, Willem K.M. Brauers, Erick González Caballero, Fausto Cavallaro, Gavrilă Calefariu, T. Chalapathi, Victor Christianto, Mihaela Colhon, Sergiu Boris Cononovici, Mamoni Dhar, Irfan Deli, Rebeca Escobar-Jara, Alexandru Gal, N. Gandotra, Sudipta Gayen, Vassilis C. Gerogiannis, Noel Batista Hernández, Hongnian Yu, Hongbo Wang, Mihaiela Iliescu, F. Nirmala Irudayam, Sripati Jha, Darjan Karabašević, T. Katican, Bakhtawar Ali Khan, Hina Khan, Volodymyr Krasnoholovets, R. Kiran Kumar, Manoranjan Kumar Singh, Ranjan Kumar, M. Lathamaheswari, Yasar Mahmood, Nivetha Martin, Adrian Mărgean, Octavian Melinte, Mingcong Deng, Marcel Migdalovici, Monika Moga, Sana Moin, Mohamed Abdel-Basset, Mohamed Elhoseny, Rehab Mohamed, Mohamed Talea, Kalyan Mondal, Muhammad Aslam, Muhammad Aslam Malik, Muhammad Ihsan, Muhammad Naveed Jafar, Muhammad Rayees Ahmad, Muhammad Saeed, Muhammad Saqlain, Muhammad Shabir, Mujahid Abbas, Mumtaz Ali, Radu I. Munteanu, Ghulam Murtaza, Munazza Naz, Tahsin Oner, ‪Gabrijela Popović‬‬‬‬‬, Surapati Pramanik, R. Priya, S.P. Priyadharshini, Midha Qayyum, Quang-Thinh Bui, Shazia Rana, Akbara Rezaei, Jesús Estupiñán Ricardo, Rıdvan Sahin, Saeeda Mirvakili, Said Broumi, A. A. Salama, Flavius Aurelian Sârbu, Ganeshsree Selvachandran, Javid Shabbir, Shio Gai Quek, Son Hoang Le, Florentin Smarandache, Dragiša Stanujkić, S. Sudha, Taha Yasin Ozturk, Zaigham Tahir, The Houw Iong, Ayse Topal, Alptekin Ulutaș, Maikel Yelandi Leyva Vázquez, Rizha Vitania, Luige Vlădăreanu, Victor Vlădăreanu, Ștefan Vlăduțescu, J. Vimala, Dan Valeriu Voinea, Adem Yolcu, Yongfei Feng, Abd El-Nasser H. Zaied, Edmundas Kazimieras Zavadskas.‬