Deep Learning Techniques in Extreme Weather Events: A Review

Extreme weather events pose significant challenges, thereby demanding techniques for accurate analysis and precise forecasting to mitigate its impact. In recent years, deep learning techniques have emerged as a promising approach for weather forecasting and understanding the dynamics of extreme weather events. This review aims to provide a comprehensive overview of the state-of-the-art deep learning in the field. We explore the utilization of deep learning architectures, across various aspects of weather prediction such as thunderstorm, lightning, precipitation, drought, heatwave, cold waves and tropical cyclones. We highlight the potential of deep learning, such as its ability to capture complex patterns and non-linear relationships. Additionally, we discuss the limitations of current approaches and highlight future directions for advancements in the field of meteorology. The insights gained from this systematic review are crucial for the scientific community to make informed decisions and mitigate the impacts of extreme weather events

Rain Fall Prediction using Ada Boost Machine Learning Ensemble Algorithm

Every government takes initiative for the well-being of their citizens in terms of environment and climate in which they live. Global warming is one of the reason for climate change. With the help of machine learning algorithms in the flash light of Artificial Intelligence and Data Mining techniques, weather predictions not only rainfall, lightings, thunder outbreaks, etc. can be predicted. Management of water reservoirs, flooding, traffic - control in smart cities, sewer system functioning and agricultural production are the hydro-meteorological factors that affect human life very drastically. Due to dynamic nature of atmosphere, existing Statistical techniques (Support Vector Machine (SVM), Decision Tree (DT) and logistic regression (LR)) fail to provide good accuracy for rainfall forecasting. Different weather features (Temperature, Relative Humidity, Dew Point, Solar Radiation and Precipitable Water Vapour) are extracted for rainfall prediction. In this research work, data analysis using machine learning ensemble algorithm like Adaptive Boosting (Ada Boost) is proposed. Dataset used for this classification application is taken from hydrological department, India from 1901-2015. Overall, proposed algorithm is feasible to be used in order to qualitatively predict rainfall with the help of R tool and Ada Boost algorithm. Accuracy rate and error false rates are compared with the existing Support Vector Machine (SVM) algorithm and the proposed one gives the better result

Machine-learning-based investigation of the variables affecting summertime lightning occurrence over the Southern Great Plains

Lightning is affected by many factors, many of which are not routinely measured, well understood, or accounted for in physical models. Several commonly used machine learning (ML) models have been applied to analyze the relationship between Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) data and lightning data from the Earth Networks Total Lightning Network (ENTLN) in order to identify important variables affecting lightning occurrence in the vicinity of the Southern Great Plains (SGP) ARM site during the summer months (June, July, August and September) of 2012 to 2020. Testing various ML models, we found that the random forest model is the best predictor among common classifiers. When convective clouds were detected, it predicts lightning occurrence with an accuracy of 76.9 % and an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.850. Using this model, we further ranked the variables in terms of their effectiveness in nowcasting lightning and identified geometric cloud thickness, rain rate and convective available potential energy (CAPE) as the most effective predictors. The contrast in meteorological variables between no-lightning and frequent-lightning periods was examined for hours with CAPE values conducive to thunderstorm formation. Besides the variables considered for the ML models, surface variables and mid-altitude variables (e.g., equivalent potential temperature and minimum equivalent potential temperature, respectively) have statistically significant contrasts between no-lightning and frequent-lightning hours. For example, the minimum equivalent potential temperature from 700 to 500 hPa is significantly lower during frequent-lightning hours compared with no-lightning hours. Finally, a notable positive relationship between the intracloud (IC) flash fraction and the square root of CAPE (CAPE) was found, suggesting that stronger updrafts increase the height of the electrification zone, resulting in fewer flashes reaching the surface and consequently a greater IC flash fraction.</p

Discrimination of Tornadic and Non-Tornadic Severe Weather Outbreaks

Outbreaks of severe weather affect the majority of the conterminous United States. An outbreak is characterized by multiple severe weather occurrences within a single synoptic system. Outbreaks can be categorized by whether or not they produce tornadoes. It is hypothesized that the antecedent synoptic signal contains important information about outbreak type. Accordingly, the scope of this research is to determine the extent that the synoptic signal can be utilized to classify outbreak type at various lead times.Outbreak types are classified using the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, which are arranged on a global 2.5º latitude-longitude grid, include 17 vertical pressure levels, and span from 1948 to the present (2008). Fifty major tornado outbreak (TO) cases and fifty major non-tornadic severe weather outbreak (NTO) cases are selected for this work. Two types of analyses are performed on these cases to assess discrimination ability. One analysis involves outbreak classification using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model initialized with the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis dataset. Meteorological covariates are computed from the WRF output and used in training and testing of statistical classification models. The covariate fields are depicted on a 21 X 21 gridpoint field with an 18 km grid spacing centered on the outbreak. Covariates with large discrimination potential are determined using permutation testing. A P-mode principal component analysis (PCA) is used on the subset of covariates determined by permutation testing to reduce data dimensionality, since numerous redundancies exist in the initial covariate set. Three statistical classification models are trained and tested with the resulting PC scores: a support vector machine (SVM), a logistic regression model (LogR), and a multiple linear regression model (LR). Promising results emerge from these methods, as a probability of detection (POD) of 0.89 and a false alarm ratio (FAR) of 0.13 are obtained from the best discriminating statistical technique (SVM) at 24-hours lead time. Results degrade only slightly by 72-hours lead time (maximum POD of 0.833 and minimum FAR of 0.276).Synoptic composites of the outbreak types are the second analysis considered. Composites are used to reveal synoptic features of outbreak types, which can be utilized to diagnose the differences between classes (in this case, TOs and NTOs). The composites are created using PCA. Five raw variables, height, temperature, relative humidity, and u and v wind components, are extracted from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data for North America. Converging longitude lines with increasing latitude on the reanalysis grid introduce bias into correlation calculations in higher latitudes; hence, the data are mapped onto both a latitudinal density grid and a Fibonacci grid. The resulting PCA produces two significant principal components (PCs), and a cluster analysis on these PCs for each outbreak type results in two types of TOs and NTOs. TO composites are characterized by a trough of low pressure over the central United States and major quasigeostrophic forcing features such as an upper level jet streak, cyclonic vorticity advection increasing with height, and warm air advection. These dynamics result in a strong surface cyclone in most tornado outbreaks. These features are considerably less pronounced in NTOs. The statistical analyses presented herein were successful in classifying outbreak types at various lead times, using synoptic scale data as input

Predictive and Prescriptive Analytics for Managing the Impact of Hazards on Power Systems

Natural hazards and extreme weather events have the potential to cause significant disruptions to the electric power grid. The resulting damages are, in some cases, very expensive and time-consuming to repair and they lead to substantial burdens on both utilities and customers. The frequency of such events has also been increasing over the last 30 years and several studies show that both the number and intensity of severe weather events will increase due to global warming and climate change. An important part of managing weather-induced power outages is being properly prepared for them, and this is tied in with broader goals of enhancing power system resilience. Inspired by these challenges, this thesis focuses on developing data-driven frameworks under uncertainty for predictive and prescriptive analytics in order to address the resiliency challenges of power systems. In particular, the primary aims of this dissertation are to: 1. Develop a series of predictive models that can accurately estimate the probability distribution of power outages in advance of a storm. 2. Develop a crew coordination planning model to allocate repair crews to areas affected by hazards in response to the uncertain predicted outages. The first chapter introduces storm outage management and explains the main objectives of this thesis in detail. In the second chapter, I develop a novel two-stage predictive modeling framework to overcome the zero-inflation issue that is seen in most outage related data. The proposed model accurately estimates customer interruptions in terms of probability distributions to better address inherent stochasticity in predictions. In the next chapter, I develop a new adaptive statistical learning approach based on Bayesian model averaging to formulate model uncertainty and develop a model that is able to adapt to changing conditions and data over time. The forth chapter uses Bayesian belief network to model the stochastic interconnection between various meteorological factors and physical damage to different power system assets. Finally, in chapter five, I develop a new multi-stage stochastic program model to allocate and relocate repair crews in impacted areas during an extreme weather event to restore power as quickly as possible with minimum costs. This research was conducted in collaboration with multiple power utility companies, and some of the models and algorithms developed in this thesis are already implemented in those companies and utilized by their employees. Based on actual data from these companies, I provide evidence that significant improvements have been achieved by my models.PHDIndustrial & Operations EngineeringUniversity of Michigan, Horace H. Rackham School of Graduate Studieshttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/168024/1/ekabir_1.pd

Prediction of Airport Arrival Rates Using Data Mining Methods

This research sought to establish and utilize relationships between environmental variable inputs and airport efficiency estimates by data mining archived weather and airport performance data at ten geographically and climatologically different airports. Several meaningful relationships were discovered using various statistical modeling methods within an overarching data mining protocol and the developed models were tested using historical data. Additionally, a selected model was deployed using real-time predictive weather information to estimate airport efficiency as a demonstration of potential operational usefulness. This work employed SAS® Enterprise Miner TM data mining and modeling software to train and validate decision tree, neural network, and linear regression models to estimate the importance of weather input variables in predicting Airport Arrival Rates (AAR) using the FAA’s Aviation System Performance Metric (ASPM) database. The ASPM database contains airport performance statistics and limited weather variables archived at 15-minute and hourly intervals, and these data formed the foundation of this study. In order to add more weather parameters into the data mining environment, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) meteorological hourly station data were merged with the ASPM data to increase the number of environmental variables (e.g., precipitation type and amount) into the analyses. Using the SAS® Enterprise Miner TM, three different types of models were created, compared, and scored at the following ten airports: a) Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport (ATL), b) Los Angeles International Airport (LAX), c) O’Hare International Airport (ORD), d) Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport (DFW), e) John F. Kennedy International Airport (JFK), f) Denver International Airport (DEN), g) San Francisco International Airport (SFO), h) Charlotte-Douglas International Airport (CLT), i) LaGuardia Airport (LGA), and j) Newark Liberty International Airport (EWR). At each location, weather inputs were used to estimate AARs as a metric of efficiency easily interpreted by FAA airspace managers. To estimate Airport Arrival Rates, three data sets were used: a) 15-minute and b) hourly ASPM data, along with c) a merged ASPM and meteorological hourly station data set. For all three data sets, the models were trained and validated using data from 2014 and 2015, and then tested using 2016 data. Additionally, a selected airport model was deployed using National Weather Service (NWS) Localized Aviation MOS (Model Output Statistics) Program (LAMP) weather guidance as the input variables over a 24-hour period as a test. The resulting AAR output predictions were then compared with the real-world AARs observed. Based on model scoring using 2016 data, LAX, ATL, and EWR demonstrated useful predictive performance that potentially could be applied to estimate real-world AARs. Marginal, but perhaps useful AAR prediction might be gleaned operationally at LGA, SFO, and DFW, as the number of successfully scored cases fall loosely within one standard deviation of acceptable model performance arbitrarily set at ten percent of the airport’s maximum AAR. The remaining models studied, DEN, CLT, ORD, and JFK appeared to have little useful operational application based on the 2016 model scoring results

Detecting Controllers' Actions in Past Mode S Data by Autoencoder-Based Anomaly Detection

International audienceThe preparation and execution of training simulations for Air Traffic Control (ATC) and pilots requires a significant commitment of operational experts. Such a mobilisation could be alleviated by a decision support tool trained to generate a realistic environment based on historical data. Prior to studying methods able to learn from a dataset of traffic patterns and ATC orders observed in the past, we focus here on the constitution of such a database from a history of trajectories: the difficulty lies in the fact that past flown trajectories are properly regulated, that observed situations may depend on a wide range of potentially unknown factors and that ownership rules apply on parts of the data. We present here a method to analyse flight trajectories, detect unusual flight behaviours and infer ATC actions. When an anomaly is detected, we place the trajectory in context, then assess whether such anomaly could correspond to an ATC action. The trajectory outlier detection method is based on autoencoder Machine Learning models. It determines trajectory outliers and quantifies a level of abnormality, therefore giving hints about the nature of the detected situations. Results obtained on three different scenarios, with Mode S flight data collected over one year, show that this method is well suited to efficiently detect anomalous situations, ranging from classic air traffic controllers orders to more significant deviations. Detecting such situations is not only a necessary milestone for the generation of ATC orders in a realistic environment; this methodology could also be useful in safety studies for anomaly detection and estimation of probabilities of rare events; and in complexity and performance analyses for detecting actions in neighbouring sectors or estimating ATC workload

Investigation into the Perceptually Informed Data for Environmental Sound Recognition

Environmental sound is rich source of information that can be used to infer contexts. With the rise in ubiquitous computing, the desire of environmental sound recognition is rapidly growing. Primarily, the research aims to recognize the environmental sound using the perceptually informed data. The initial study is concentrated on understanding the current state-of-the-art techniques in environmental sound recognition. Then those researches are evaluated by a critical review of the literature. This study extracts three sets of features: Mel Frequency Cepstral Coefficients, Mel-spectrogram and sound texture statistics. Two kinds machine learning algorithms are cooperated with appropriate sound features. The models are compared with a low-level baseline model. It also presents a performance comparison between each model with the high-level human listeners. The study results in sound texture statistics model performing the best classification by achieving 45.1% of accuracy based on support vector machine with radial basis function kernel. Another Mel-spectrogram model based on Convolutional Neural Network also provided satisfactory results and have received predictive results greater than the benchmark test

Application of machine learning techniques to weather forecasting

Weather forecasting is, still today, a human based activity. Although computer simulations play a major role in modelling the state and evolution of the atmosphere, there is a lack of methodologies to automate the interpretation of the information generated by these models. This doctoral thesis explores the use of machine learning methodologies to solve specific problems in meteorology and particularly focuses on the exploration of methodologies to improve the accuracy of numerical weather prediction models using machine learning. The work presented in this manuscript contains two different approaches using machine learning. In the first part, classical methodologies, such as multivariate non-parametric regression and binary trees are explored to perform regression on meteorological data. In this first part, we particularly focus on forecasting wind, where the circular nature of this variable opens interesting challenges for classic machine learning algorithms and techniques. The second part of this thesis, explores the analysis of weather data as a generic structured prediction problem using deep neural networks. Neural networks, such as convolutional and recurrent networks provide a method for capturing the spatial and temporal structure inherent in weather prediction models. This part explores the potential of deep convolutional neural networks in solving difficult problems in meteorology, such as modelling precipitation from basic numerical model fields. The research performed during the completion of this thesis demonstrates that collaboration between the machine learning and meteorology research communities is mutually beneficial and leads to advances in both disciplines. Weather forecasting models and observational data represent unique examples of large (petabytes), structured and high-quality data sets, that the machine learning community demands for developing the next generation of scalable algorithms