Dynamic Modeling and Statistical Analysis of Event Times

This review article provides an overview of recent work in the modeling and analysis of recurrent events arising in engineering, reliability, public health, biomedicine and other areas. Recurrent event modeling possesses unique facets making it different and more difficult to handle than single event settings. For instance, the impact of an increasing number of event occurrences needs to be taken into account, the effects of covariates should be considered, potential association among the interevent times within a unit cannot be ignored, and the effects of performed interventions after each event occurrence need to be factored in. A recent general class of models for recurrent events which simultaneously accommodates these aspects is described. Statistical inference methods for this class of models are presented and illustrated through applications to real data sets. Some existing open research problems are described.Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/088342306000000349 in the Statistical Science (http://www.imstat.org/sts/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Design de fiabilidade bidimensional do software de múltiplos lançamentos tendo em conta o fator de redução de falhas na depuração imperfeita

Introduction: The present research was conducted at the University of Delhi, India in 2017. Methods: We develop a software reliability growth model to assess the reliability of software products released in multiple versions under limited availability of resources and time. The Fault Reduction Factor (frf) is considered to be constant in imperfect debugging environments while the rate of fault removal is given by Delayed S-Shaped model. Results: The proposed model has been validated on a real life four-release dataset by carrying out goodness of fit analysis. Laplace trend analysis was also conducted to judge the trend exhibited by data with respect to change in the system’s reliability. Conclusions: A number of comparison criteria have been calculated to evaluate the performance of the proposed model relative to only time-based multi-release Software Reliability Growth Model (srgm). Originality: In general, the number of faults removed is not the same as the number of failures experienced in given time intervals, so the inclusion of frf in the model makes it better and more realistic. A paradigm shift has been observed in software development from single release to multi release platform. Limitations: The proposed model can be used by software developers to take decisions regarding the release time for different versions, by either minimizing the development cost or maximizing the reliability and determining the warranty policies.Introducción: la presente investigación se realizó en la Universidad de Delhi, India en 2017. Métodos: desarrollamos un modelo de crecimiento de confiabilidad de software para evaluar la confiabilidad de los productos de software lanzados en múltiples versiones bajo disponibilidad limitada de recursos y tiempo. El factor de reducción de fallas (frf) se considera una constante en entornos de depuración imperfecta, mientras que la tasa de eliminación de fallas está dada por el modelo de forma retardada en S. Resultados: se valida el modelo propuesto en un conjunto de datos de cuatro lanzamientos de la vida real mediante un análisis de bondad de ajuste. También se aplicó el análisis de tendencia de Laplace para juzgar la tendencia que presentan los datos con respecto al cambio en la confiabilidad del sistema. Conclusiones: se calculó una serie de criterios de comparación para evaluar el rendimiento del modelo propuesto en relación con el modelo de crecimiento de confiabilidad del software (srgm) de múltiples lanzamientos basado únicamente en el tiempo. Originalidad: en general, el número de fallas eliminadas no es el mismo que el número de fallas experimentadas en intervalos de tiempo determinados, por lo que la inclusión de frf en el modelo lo mejora y lo hace más realista. Se ha observado un cambio de paradigma en el desarrollo de software, que pasa de un lanzamiento único a una plataforma múltiples lanzamientos. Limitaciones: los desarrolladores de software pueden emplear el modelo propuesto para tomar decisiones con respecto al tiempo de lanzar diferentes versiones, ya sea minimizando el costo de desarrollo o maximizando la confiabilidad y determinando las políticas de la garantía.Introdução: esta pesquisa foi realizada na Universidade de Deli, na Índia, em 2017. Métodos: desenvolvemos um modelo de crescimento de confiabilidade de software para avaliar a confiabilidade dos produtos de software lançados em múltiplas versões sob disponibilidade limitada de recursos e tempo. O fator de redução de falhas (frf) é considerado uma constante em contextos de depuração imperfeita, enquanto a taxa de eliminação de falhas é dada pelo modelo de forma retardada em S.Resultados: o modelo proposto é avaliado em um conjunto de dados de quatro lançamentos da vida real mediante uma análise de bondade de ajuste. Também foi utilizada a análise de tendência de Laplace para avaliar a tendência apresentada pelos dados com respeito à mudança na confiabilidade do sistema.Conclusões: uma série de critérios de comparação foi calculada para avaliar o rendimento do modelo proposto em relação com o modelo de crescimento de confiabilidade do software (srgm) de múltiplos lançamentos baseado unicamente no tempo.Originalidade: em geral, o número de falhas eliminadas não é o mesmo que o número de falhas existentes em intervalos de tempo determinados, sendo assim, a inclusão do frf no modelo o torna melhor e mais realista. Foi observada uma mudança de paradigma no desenvolvimento de software, que passa de um lançamento único a uma plataforma de múltiplos lançamentos.Limitações: o modelo proposto pode ser utilizado pelos desenvolvedores de software para tomar decisões com respeito ao tempo de lançar diferentes versões, seja para minimizar o custo de desenvolvimento ou maximizar a confiabilidade e determinar as políticas de garantia

Hybrid Software Reliability Model for Big Fault Data and Selection of Best Optimizer Using an Estimation Accuracy Function

Software reliability analysis has come to the forefront of academia as software applications have grown in size and complexity. Traditionally, methods have focused on minimizing coding errors to guarantee analytic tractability. This causes the estimations to be overly optimistic when using these models. However, it is important to take into account non-software factors, such as human error and hardware failure, in addition to software faults to get reliable estimations. In this research, we examine how big data systems' peculiarities and the need for specialized hardware led to the creation of a hybrid model. We used statistical and soft computing approaches to determine values for the model's parameters, and we explored five criteria values in an effort to identify the most useful method of parameter evaluation for big data systems. For this purpose, we conduct a case study analysis of software failure data from four actual projects. In order to do a comparison, we used the precision of the estimation function for the results. Particle swarm optimization was shown to be the most effective optimization method for the hybrid model constructed with the use of large-scale fault data

APPLICATION AND REFINEMENTS OF THE REPS THEORY FOR SAFETY CRITICAL SOFTWARE

With the replacement of old analog control systems with software-based digital control systems, there is an urgent need for developing a method to quantitatively and accurately assess the reliability of safety critical software systems. This research focuses on proposing a systematic software metric-based reliability prediction method. The method starts with the measurement of a metric. Measurement results are then either directly linked to software defects through inspections and peer reviews or indirectly linked to software defects through empirical software engineering models. Three types of defect characteristics can be obtained, namely, 1) the number of defects remaining, 2) the number and the exact location of the defects found, and 3) the number and the exact location of defects found in an earlier version. Three models, Musa's exponential model, the PIE model and a mixed Musa-PIE model, are then used to link each of the three categories of defect characteristics with reliability respectively. In addition, the use of the PIE model requires mapping defects identified to an Extended Finite State Machine (EFSM) model. A procedure that can assist in the construction of the EFSM model and increase its repeatability is also provided. This metric-based software reliability prediction method is then applied to a safety-critical software used in the nuclear industry using eleven software metrics. Reliability prediction results are compared with the real reliability assessed by using operational failure data. Experiences and lessons learned from the application are discussed. Based on the results and findings, four software metrics are recommended. This dissertation then focuses on one of the four recommended metrics, Test Coverage. A reliability prediction model based on Test Coverage is discussed in detail and this model is further refined to be able to take into consideration more realistic conditions, such as imperfect debugging and the use of multiple testing phases

Availability and Reliability Analysis of Computer Software Systems Considering Maintenance and Security Issues

Ph.DDOCTOR OF PHILOSOPH

Design of an integrated airframe/propulsion control system architecture

The design of an integrated airframe/propulsion control system architecture is described. The design is based on a prevalidation methodology that uses both reliability and performance. A detailed account is given for the testing associated with a subset of the architecture and concludes with general observations of applying the methodology to the architecture