120,437 research outputs found
Assume-guarantee verification for probabilistic systems
We present a compositional verification technique for systems that exhibit both probabilistic and nondeterministic behaviour. We adopt an assume- guarantee approach to verification, where both the assumptions made about system components and the guarantees that they provide are regular safety properties, represented by finite automata. Unlike previous proposals for assume-guarantee reasoning about probabilistic systems, our approach does not require that components interact in a fully synchronous fashion. In addition, the compositional verification method is efficient and fully automated, based on a reduction to the problem of multi-objective probabilistic model checking. We present asymmetric and circular assume-guarantee rules, and show how they can be adapted to form quantitative queries, yielding lower and upper bounds on the actual probabilities that a property is satisfied. Our techniques have been implemented and applied to several large case studies, including instances where conventional probabilistic verification is infeasible
Equilibria-based Probabilistic Model Checking for Concurrent Stochastic Games
Probabilistic model checking for stochastic games enables formal verification
of systems that comprise competing or collaborating entities operating in a
stochastic environment. Despite good progress in the area, existing approaches
focus on zero-sum goals and cannot reason about scenarios where entities are
endowed with different objectives. In this paper, we propose probabilistic
model checking techniques for concurrent stochastic games based on Nash
equilibria. We extend the temporal logic rPATL (probabilistic alternating-time
temporal logic with rewards) to allow reasoning about players with distinct
quantitative goals, which capture either the probability of an event occurring
or a reward measure. We present algorithms to synthesise strategies that are
subgame perfect social welfare optimal Nash equilibria, i.e., where there is no
incentive for any players to unilaterally change their strategy in any state of
the game, whilst the combined probabilities or rewards are maximised. We
implement our techniques in the PRISM-games tool and apply them to several case
studies, including network protocols and robot navigation, showing the benefits
compared to existing approaches
Probabilistic Model Checking for Energy Analysis in Software Product Lines
In a software product line (SPL), a collection of software products is
defined by their commonalities in terms of features rather than explicitly
specifying all products one-by-one. Several verification techniques were
adapted to establish temporal properties of SPLs. Symbolic and family-based
model checking have been proven to be successful for tackling the combinatorial
blow-up arising when reasoning about several feature combinations. However,
most formal verification approaches for SPLs presented in the literature focus
on the static SPLs, where the features of a product are fixed and cannot be
changed during runtime. This is in contrast to dynamic SPLs, allowing to adapt
feature combinations of a product dynamically after deployment. The main
contribution of the paper is a compositional modeling framework for dynamic
SPLs, which supports probabilistic and nondeterministic choices and allows for
quantitative analysis. We specify the feature changes during runtime within an
automata-based coordination component, enabling to reason over strategies how
to trigger dynamic feature changes for optimizing various quantitative
objectives, e.g., energy or monetary costs and reliability. For our framework
there is a natural and conceptually simple translation into the input language
of the prominent probabilistic model checker PRISM. This facilitates the
application of PRISM's powerful symbolic engine to the operational behavior of
dynamic SPLs and their family-based analysis against various quantitative
queries. We demonstrate feasibility of our approach by a case study issuing an
energy-aware bonding network device.Comment: 14 pages, 11 figure
Automated verification of concurrent stochastic games
We present automatic verifcation techniques for concurrent
stochastic multi-player games (CSGs) with rewards. To express properties
of such models, we adapt the temporal logic rPATL (probabilistic
alternating-time temporal logic with rewards), originally introduced for
the simpler model of turn-based games, which enables quantitative reasoning
about the ability of coalitions of players to achieve goals related to
the probability of an event or reward measures. We propose and implement
a modelling approach and model checking algorithms for property
verifcation and strategy synthesis of CSGs, as an extension of PRISMgames.
We evaluate the performance, scalability and applicability of our
techniques on case studies from domains such as security, networks and
finance, showing that we can analyse systems with probabilistic, cooperative
and competitive behaviour between concurrent components, including
many scenarios that cannot be analysed with turn-based models
A probabilistic approach to case-based inference
The central problem in case based reasoning (CBR) is to infer a solution for a new problem-instance by using a collection of existing problem-solution cases. The basic heuristic guiding CBR is the hypothesis that similar problems have similar solutions. Recently, some attempts at formalizing CBR in a theoretical framework have been made, including work by Hullermeier who established a link between CBR and the probably approximately correct (PAC) theoretical model of learning in his 'case-based inference' (CBI) formulation. In this paper we develop further such probabilistic modelling, framing CBI it as a multi-category classification problem. We use a recently-developed notion of geometric margin of classification to obtain generalization error bounds
Attack Trees in Isabelle extended with probabilities for Quantum Cryptography
In this paper, we present a proof calculus for Attack Trees and how its application to Quantum Cryptography is made possible by extending the framework to probabilistic reasoning on attacks. Attack trees are a well established and useful model for the construction of attacks on systems since they allow a stepwise exploration of high level attacks in application scenarios. Using the expressiveness of Higher Order Logic in Isabelle, we succeed in developing a generic theory of attack trees with a state-based semantics based on Kripke structures and CTL. The resulting framework allows mechanically supported logic analysis of the meta-theory of the proof calculus of attack trees and at the same time the developed proof theory enables application to case studies. A central correctness and completeness result proved in Isabelle establishes a connection between the notion of attack tree validity and CTL.
Furthermore in this paper, we illustrate the application of Attack Trees to security protocols on the example of the Quantum Key Distribution (QKD) algorithm. The application motivates the extension of the Attack Tree proof calculus by probabilities. We therefore introduce probabilities to quantify finite event sequences and show how this extension can be used to extend CTL to its probabilistic version PCTL. We show on the example of QKD how probabilistic reasoning with PCTL enables proof of quantitative security properties
Equilibria-based probabilistic model checking for concurrent stochastic games
Probabilistic model checking for stochastic games enables formal verification of systems that comprise competing or collaborating entities operating in a stochastic environment. Despite good progress in the area, existing approaches focus on zero-sum goals and cannot reason about scenarios where entities are endowed with different objectives. In this paper, we propose probabilistic model checking techniques for concurrent stochastic games based on Nash equilibria. We extend the temporal logic rPATL (probabilistic alternating-time temporal logic with rewards) to allow reasoning about players with distinct quantitative goals, which capture either the probability of an event occurring or a reward measure. We present algorithms to synthesise strategies that are subgame perfect social welfare optimal Nash equilibria, i.e., where there is no incentive for any players to unilaterally change their strategy in any state of the game, whilst the combined probabilities or rewards are maximised. We implement our techniques in the PRISM-games tool and apply them to several case studies, including network protocols and robot navigation, showing the benefits compared to existing approaches
Probabilistic reasoning and inference for systems biology
One of the important challenges in Systems Biology is reasoning and performing hypotheses testing in uncertain conditions, when available knowledge may be incomplete and the experimental data may contain substantial noise.
In this thesis we develop methods of probabilistic reasoning and inference
that operate consistently within an environment of uncertain knowledge and data. Mechanistic mathematical models are used to describe hypotheses about biological systems.
We consider both deductive model based reasoning and model inference from data. The main contributions are a novel modelling approach using continuous time Markov chains that enables deductive derivation of model behaviours and their properties, and the application of Bayesian inferential methods to solve the inverse problem of model inference and comparison, given uncertain knowledge and noisy data.
In the first part of the thesis, we consider both individual and population
based techniques for modelling biochemical pathways using continuous time Markov chains, and demonstrate why the latter is the most appropriate. We illustrate a new approach, based on symbolic intervals of concentrations, with an example portion of the ERK signalling pathway. We demonstrate that the resulting model approximates the same dynamic system as traditionally defined using ordinary differential equations. The advantage of the new approach is quantitative logical analysis; we formulate a number of biologically significant queries in the temporal logic CSL and use probabilistic symbolic model checking to investigate their veracity.
In the second part of the thesis, we consider the inverse problem of model
inference and testing of alternative hypotheses, when models are defined by non-linear ordinary differential equations and the experimental data is noisy and sparse. We compare and evaluate a number of statistical techniques, and implement an effective Bayesian inferential framework for systems biology based on Markov chain Monte Carlo methods and estimation of marginal likelihoods by annealing-melting integration. We illustrate the framework with two case studies, one of which involves an open problem concerning the mediation of ERK phosphorylation in the ERK pathway
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