A fast Monte-Carlo method with a Reduced Basis of Control Variates applied to Uncertainty Propagation and Bayesian Estimation

The Reduced-Basis Control-Variate Monte-Carlo method was introduced recently in [S. Boyaval and T. Leli\`evre, CMS, 8 2010] as an improved Monte-Carlo method, for the fast estimation of many parametrized expected values at many parameter values. We provide here a more complete analysis of the method including precise error estimates and convergence results. We also numerically demonstrate that it can be useful to some parametrized frameworks in Uncertainty Quantification, in particular (i) the case where the parametrized expectation is a scalar output of the solution to a Partial Differential Equation (PDE) with stochastic coefficients (an Uncertainty Propagation problem), and (ii) the case where the parametrized expectation is the Bayesian estimator of a scalar output in a similar PDE context. Moreover, in each case, a PDE has to be solved many times for many values of its coefficients. This is costly and we also use a reduced basis of PDE solutions like in [S. Boyaval, C. Le Bris, Nguyen C., Y. Maday and T. Patera, CMAME, 198 2009]. This is the first combination of various Reduced-Basis ideas to our knowledge, here with a view to reducing as much as possible the computational cost of a simple approach to Uncertainty Quantification

Enhanced goal-oriented error assessment and computational strategies in adaptive reduced basis solver for stochastic problems

This work focuses on providing accurate low-cost approximations of stochastic ¿nite elements simulations in the framework of linear elasticity. In a previous work, an adaptive strategy was introduced as an improved Monte-Carlo method for multi-dimensional large stochastic problems. We provide here a complete analysis of the method including a new enhanced goal-oriented error estimator and estimates of CPU (computational processing unit) cost gain. Technical insights of these two topics are presented in details, and numerical examples show the interest of these new developments.Postprint (author's final draft

IGA-based Multi-Index Stochastic Collocation for random PDEs on arbitrary domains

This paper proposes an extension of the Multi-Index Stochastic Collocation (MISC) method for forward uncertainty quantification (UQ) problems in computational domains of shape other than a square or cube, by exploiting isogeometric analysis (IGA) techniques. Introducing IGA solvers to the MISC algorithm is very natural since they are tensor-based PDE solvers, which are precisely what is required by the MISC machinery. Moreover, the combination-technique formulation of MISC allows the straight-forward reuse of existing implementations of IGA solvers. We present numerical results to showcase the effectiveness of the proposed approach.Comment: version 3, version after revisio

Bayesian Estimation for Continuous-Time Sparse Stochastic Processes

We consider continuous-time sparse stochastic processes from which we have only a finite number of noisy/noiseless samples. Our goal is to estimate the noiseless samples (denoising) and the signal in-between (interpolation problem). By relying on tools from the theory of splines, we derive the joint a priori distribution of the samples and show how this probability density function can be factorized. The factorization enables us to tractably implement the maximum a posteriori and minimum mean-square error (MMSE) criteria as two statistical approaches for estimating the unknowns. We compare the derived statistical methods with well-known techniques for the recovery of sparse signals, such as the $\ell_1$ norm and Log ($\ell_1$-$\ell_0$ relaxation) regularization methods. The simulation results show that, under certain conditions, the performance of the regularization techniques can be very close to that of the MMSE estimator.Comment: To appear in IEEE TS

Statistical Physics Analysis of Maximum a Posteriori Estimation for Multi-channel Hidden Markov Models

The performance of Maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimation is studied analytically for binary symmetric multi-channel Hidden Markov processes. We reduce the estimation problem to a 1D Ising spin model and define order parameters that correspond to different characteristics of the MAP-estimated sequence. The solution to the MAP estimation problem has different operational regimes separated by first order phase transitions. The transition points for $L$-channel system with identical noise levels, are uniquely determined by $L$ being odd or even, irrespective of the actual number of channels. We demonstrate that for lower noise intensities, the number of solutions is uniquely determined for odd $L$, whereas for even $L$ there are exponentially many solutions. We also develop a semi analytical approach to calculate the estimation error without resorting to brute force simulations. Finally, we examine the tradeoff between a system with single low-noise channel and one with multiple noisy channels.Comment: The paper has been submitted to Journal of Statistical Physics with submission number JOSS-S-12-0039