Governments, Civilians, and the Evolution of Insurgency: Modeling the Early Dynamics of Insurgencies

This paper models the early dynamics of insurgency using an agent-based computer simulation of civilians, insurgents, and soldiers. In the simulation, insurgents choose to attack government forces, which then strike back. Such government counterattacks may result in the capture or killing of insurgents, may make nearby civilians afraid to become insurgents, but may also increase the anger of surrounding civilians if there is significant collateral damage. If civilians become angry enough, they become new insurgents. I simulate the dynamics of these interactions, focusing on the effectiveness of government forces at capturing insurgents vs. their accuracy in avoiding collateral damage. The simulations suggest that accuracy (avoidance of collateral damage) is more important for the long-term defeat of insurgency than is effectiveness at capturing insurgents in any given counterattack. There also may be a critical 'tipping point' for accuracy below which the length of insurgencies increases dramatically. The dynamics of how insurgencies grow or decline in response to various combinations of government accuracy and effectiveness illustrate the tradeoffs faced by governments in dealing with the early stages of an insurgency.Agent Based Models, Insurgency, Dynamics, Civil War

Use of bio-inspired techniques to solve complex engineering problems: industrial automation case study

Nowadays local markets have disappeared and the world lives in a global economy. Due to this reality, every company virtually competes with all others companies in the world. In addition to this, markets constantly search products with higher quality at lower costs, with high customization. Also, products tend to have a shorter period of life, making the demanding more intense. With this scenario, companies, to remain competitive, must constantly adapt themselves to the market changes, i.e., companies must exhibit a great degree of self-organization and self-adaptation. Biology with the millions of years of evolution may offer inspiration to develop new algorithms, methods and techniques to solve real complex problems. As an example, the behaviour of ants and bees, have inspired researchers in the pursuit of solutions to solve complex and evolvable engineering problems. This dissertation has the goal of explore the world of bio-inspired engineering. This is done by studying some of the bio-inspired solutions and searching for bio-inspired solutions to solve the daily problems. A more deep focus will be made to the engineering problems and particularly to the manufacturing domain. Multi-agent systems is a concept aligned with the bio-inspired principles offering a new approach to develop solutions that exhibit robustness, flexibility, responsiveness and re-configurability. In such distributed bio-inspired systems, the behaviour of each entity follows simple few rules, but the overall emergent behaviour is very complex to understand and to demonstrate. Therefore, the design and simulation of distributed agent-based solutions, and particularly those exhibiting self-organizing, are usually a hard task. Agent Based Modelling (ABM) tools simplifies this task by providing an environment for programming, modelling and simulating agent-based solutions, aiming to test and compare alternative model configurations. A deeply analysis of the existing ABM tools was also performed aiming to select the platform to be used in this work. Aiming to demonstrate the benefits of bio-inspired techniques for the industrial automation domain, a production system was used as case study for the development of a self-organizing agent-based system developed using the NetLogo tool. Hoje em dia os mercados locais desapareceram e o mundo vive numa economia global. Devido a esta realidade, cada companhia compete, virtualmente, com todas as outras companhias do mundo. A acrescentar a isto, os mercados estão constantemente à procura de produtos com maior qualidade a preços mais baixos e com um grande nível de customização Também, os produtos tendem a ter um tempo curto de vida, fazendo com que a procura seja mais intensa. Com este cenário, as companhias, para permanecer competitivas, têm que se adaptar constantemente de acordo com as mudanças de mercado, i.e., as companhias têm que exibir um alto grau de auto-organização e auto-adaptação. A biologia com os milhões de anos de evolução, pode oferecer inspiração para desenvolver novos algoritmos, métodos e técnicas para resolver problemas complexos reais. Como por exemplo, o comportamento das formigas e das abelhas inspiraram investigadores na descoberta de soluções para resolver problemas complexos e evolutivos de engenharia. Esta dissertação tem como objectivo explorar o mundo da engenharia bio-inspirada. Isto é feito através do estudo de algumas das soluções bio-inspiradas existentes e da procura de soluções bio-inspiradas para resolver os problemas do dia-a-dia. Uma atenção especial vai ser dada aos problemas de engenharia e particularmente aos problemas do domínio da manufactura. Os sistemas multi-agentes são um conceito que estão em linha com os princípios bio-inspirados oferecendo uma abordagem nova para desenvolver soluções que exibam robustez, flexibilidade, rapidez de resposta e reconfiguração. Nestes sistemas distribuídos bio-inspirados, o comportamento de cada entidade segue um pequeno conjunto de regras simples, mas o comportamento emergente global é muito complexo de perceber e de demonstrar. Por isso, o desenho e simulação de soluções distribuídas de agentes, e particularmente aqueles que exibem auto-organização, são normalmente uma tarefa árdua. As ferramentas de Modelação Baseada de Agentes (MBA) simplificam esta tarefa providenciando um ambiente para programar, modelar e simular, com o objectivo de testar e comparar diferentes configurações do modelo. Uma análise mais aprofundada das ferramentas MBA foi também efectuada tendo como objectivo seleccionar a plataforma a usar neste trabalho

Compilation of thesis abstracts, December 2006

NPS Class of December 2006This quarter’s Compilation of Abstracts summarizes cutting-edge, security-related research conducted by NPS students and presented as theses, dissertations, and capstone reports. Each expands knowledge in its field.http://archive.org/details/compilationofsis109452750

Air Force Institute of Technology Research Report 2020

This Research Report presents the FY20 research statistics and contributions of the Graduate School of Engineering and Management (EN) at AFIT. AFIT research interests and faculty expertise cover a broad spectrum of technical areas related to USAF needs, as reflected by the range of topics addressed in the faculty and student publications listed in this report. In most cases, the research work reported herein is directly sponsored by one or more USAF or DOD agencies. AFIT welcomes the opportunity to conduct research on additional topics of interest to the USAF, DOD, and other federal organizations when adequate manpower and financial resources are available and/or provided by a sponsor. In addition, AFIT provides research collaboration and technology transfer benefits to the public through Cooperative Research and Development Agreements (CRADAs). Interested individuals may discuss ideas for new research collaborations, potential CRADAs, or research proposals with individual faculty using the contact information in this document

Compilation of Abstracts, June 2016

NPS Class of June 2016This quarter’s Compilation of Abstracts summarizes cutting-edge, security-related research conducted by NPS students and presented as theses, dissertations, and capstone reports. Each expands knowledge in its field.http://archive.org/details/compilationofabs109454990

DRONE DELIVERY OF CBNRECy – DEW WEAPONS Emerging Threats of Mini-Weapons of Mass Destruction and Disruption (WMDD)

Drone Delivery of CBNRECy – DEW Weapons: Emerging Threats of Mini-Weapons of Mass Destruction and Disruption (WMDD) is our sixth textbook in a series covering the world of UASs and UUVs. Our textbook takes on a whole new purview for UAS / CUAS/ UUV (drones) – how they can be used to deploy Weapons of Mass Destruction and Deception against CBRNE and civilian targets of opportunity. We are concerned with the future use of these inexpensive devices and their availability to maleficent actors. Our work suggests that UASs in air and underwater UUVs will be the future of military and civilian terrorist operations. UAS / UUVs can deliver a huge punch for a low investment and minimize human casualties.https://newprairiepress.org/ebooks/1046/thumbnail.jp

Air Force Institute of Technology Research Report 2017

This Research Report presents the FY18 research statistics and contributions of the Graduate School of Engineering and Management (EN) at AFIT. AFIT research interests and faculty expertise cover a broad spectrum of technical areas related to USAF needs, as reflected by the range of topics addressed in the faculty and student publications listed in this report. In most cases, the research work reported herein is directly sponsored by one or more USAF or DOD agencies. AFIT welcomes the opportunity to conduct research on additional topics of interest to the USAF, DOD, and other federal organizations when adequate manpower and financial resources are available and/or provided by a sponsor. In addition, AFIT provides research collaboration and technology transfer benefits to the public through Cooperative Research and Development Agreements (CRADAs)

Air Force Institute of Technology Research Report 2016

This Research Report presents the FY16 research statistics and contributions of the Graduate School of Engineering and Management (EN) at AFIT. AFIT research interests and faculty expertise cover a broad spectrum of technical areas related to USAF needs, as reflected by the range of topics addressed in the faculty and student publications listed in this report. In most cases, the research work reported herein is directly sponsored by one or more USAF or DOD agencies. AFIT welcomes the opportunity to conduct research on additional topics of interest to the USAF, DOD, and other federal organizations when adequate manpower and financial resources are available and/or provided by a sponsor. In addition, AFIT provides research collaboration and technology transfer benefits to the public through Cooperative Research and Development Agreements (CRADAs)

Air Force Institute of Technology Research Report 2018

This Research Report presents the FY18 research statistics and contributions of the Graduate School of Engineering and Management (EN) at AFIT. AFIT research interests and faculty expertise cover a broad spectrum of technical areas related to USAF needs, as reflected by the range of topics addressed in the faculty and student publications listed in this report. In most cases, the research work reported herein is directly sponsored by one or more USAF or DOD agencies. AFIT welcomes the opportunity to conduct research on additional topics of interest to the USAF, DOD, and other federal organizations when adequate manpower and financial resources are available and/or provided by a sponsor. In addition, AFIT provides research collaboration and technology transfer benefits to the public through Cooperative Research and Development Agreements (CRADAs). Interested individuals may discuss ideas for new research collaborations, potential CRADAs, or research proposals with individual faculty using the contact information in this document