Robust techniques and applications in fuzzy clustering

This dissertation addresses issues central to frizzy classification. The issue of sensitivity to noise and outliers of least squares minimization based clustering techniques, such as Fuzzy c-Means (FCM) and its variants is addressed. In this work, two novel and robust clustering schemes are presented and analyzed in detail. They approach the problem of robustness from different perspectives. The first scheme scales down the FCM memberships of data points based on the distance of the points from the cluster centers. Scaling done on outliers reduces their membership in true clusters. This scheme, known as the Mega-clustering, defines a conceptual mega-cluster which is a collective cluster of all data points but views outliers and good points differently (as opposed to the concept of Dave\u27s Noise cluster). The scheme is presented and validated with experiments and similarities with Noise Clustering (NC) are also presented. The other scheme is based on the feasible solution algorithm that implements the Least Trimmed Squares (LTS) estimator. The LTS estimator is known to be resistant to noise and has a high breakdown point. The feasible solution approach also guarantees convergence of the solution set to a global optima. Experiments show the practicability of the proposed schemes in terms of computational requirements and in the attractiveness of their simplistic frameworks. The issue of validation of clustering results has often received less attention than clustering itself. Fuzzy and non-fuzzy cluster validation schemes are reviewed and a novel methodology for cluster validity using a test for random position hypothesis is developed. The random position hypothesis is tested against an alternative clustered hypothesis on every cluster produced by the partitioning algorithm. The Hopkins statistic is used as a basis to accept or reject the random position hypothesis, which is also the null hypothesis in this case. The Hopkins statistic is known to be a fair estimator of randomness in a data set. The concept is borrowed from the clustering tendency domain and its applicability to validating clusters is shown here. A unique feature selection procedure for use with large molecular conformational datasets with high dimensionality is also developed. The intelligent feature extraction scheme not only helps in reducing dimensionality of the feature space but also helps in eliminating contentious issues such as the ones associated with labeling of symmetric atoms in the molecule. The feature vector is converted to a proximity matrix, and is used as an input to the relational fuzzy clustering (FRC) algorithm with very promising results. Results are also validated using several cluster validity measures from literature. Another application of fuzzy clustering considered here is image segmentation. Image analysis on extremely noisy images is carried out as a precursor to the development of an automated real time condition state monitoring system for underground pipelines. A two-stage FCM with intelligent feature selection is implemented as the segmentation procedure and results on a test image are presented. A conceptual framework for automated condition state assessment is also developed

Friends of friends: Are indirect connections in social networks important to animal behaviour?

types: ArticleCopyright © 2015 The Association for the Study of Animal Behaviour. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.Please cite this article in press as: Brent, L. J. N., Friends of friends: are indirect connections in social networks important to animal behaviour?, Animal Behaviour (2015), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.anbehav.2015.01.020Friend of a friend relationships, or the indirect connections between people, influence our health, well-being, financial success and reproductive output. As with humans, social behaviours in other animals often occur within a broad interconnected network of social ties. Yet studies of animal social behaviour tend to focus on associations between pairs of individuals. With the increase in popularity of social network analysis, researchers have started to look beyond the dyad to examine the role of indirect connections in animal societies. Here, I provide an overview of the new knowledge that has been uncovered by these studies. I focus on research that has addressed both the causes of social behaviours, i.e. the cognitive and genetic basis of indirect connections, as well as their consequences, i.e. the impact of indirect connections on social cohesion, information transfer, cultural practices and fitness. From these studies, it is apparent that indirect connections play an important role in animal behaviour, although future research is needed to clarify their contribution.NERCNational Institutes of Mental Healt

Using MapReduce Streaming for Distributed Life Simulation on the Cloud

Distributed software simulations are indispensable in the study of large-scale life models but often require the use of technically complex lower-level distributed computing frameworks, such as MPI. We propose to overcome the complexity challenge by applying the emerging MapReduce (MR) model to distributed life simulations and by running such simulations on the cloud. Technically, we design optimized MR streaming algorithms for discrete and continuous versions of Conway’s life according to a general MR streaming pattern. We chose life because it is simple enough as a testbed for MR’s applicability to a-life simulations and general enough to make our results applicable to various lattice-based a-life models. We implement and empirically evaluate our algorithms’ performance on Amazon’s Elastic MR cloud. Our experiments demonstrate that a single MR optimization technique called strip partitioning can reduce the execution time of continuous life simulations by 64%. To the best of our knowledge, we are the first to propose and evaluate MR streaming algorithms for lattice-based simulations. Our algorithms can serve as prototypes in the development of novel MR simulation algorithms for large-scale lattice-based a-life models.https://digitalcommons.chapman.edu/scs_books/1014/thumbnail.jp

Metrics and methods for social distance

Thesis (Ph. D.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Urban Studies and Planning, 2011.Cataloged from PDF version of thesis.Includes bibliographical references (p. 171-189).Distance measures are important for scientists because they illustrate the dynamics of geospatial topologies for physical and social processes. Two major types of distance are generally used for this purpose: Euclidean Distance measures the geodesic dispersion between fixed locations and Cost Distance characterizes the ease of travel between two places. This dissertation suggests that close inter-place ties may be an effect of human decisions and relationships and so embraces a third tier of distance, Social Distance, as the conceptual or physical connectivity between two places as measured by the relative or absolute frequency, volume or intensity of agent-based choices to travel, communicate or relate from one distinct place to another. In the spatial realm, Social Distance measures have not been widely developed, and since the concept is relatively new, Chapter 1 introduces and defines geo-contextual Social Distance, its operationalization, and its novelty. With similar intentions, Chapter 2 outlines the challenges facing the integration of social flow data into the Geographic Information community. The body of this dissertation consists of three separate case studies in Chapters 3, 4 and 5 whose common theme is the integration of Social Distance as models of social processes in geographic space. Each chapter addresses one aspect of this topic. Chapter 3 looks at a new visualization and classification method, called Weighted Radial Variation, for flow datasets. U.S. Migration data at the county level for 2008 is used for this case study. Chapter 4 discusses a new computational method for predicting geospatial interaction, based on social theory of trip chaining and communication. U.S. Flight, Trip and Migration data for the years 1995-2008 are used in this study. Chapter 5 presents the results of the tandem analysis for social networks and geographic clustering. Roll call vote data for the U.S. House of Representatives in the 111th Congress are used to create a social network, which is then analyzed with regards to the geographic districts of each congressperson.by Clio Andris.Ph.D

2016 GREAT Day Program

SUNY Geneseo’s Tenth Annual GREAT Day.https://knightscholar.geneseo.edu/program-2007/1010/thumbnail.jp

What to bid and when to stop

Negotiation is an important activity in human society, and is studied by various disciplines, ranging from economics and game theory, to electronic commerce, social psychology, and artificial intelligence. Traditionally, negotiation is a necessary, but also time-consuming and expensive activity. Therefore, in the last decades there has been a large interest in the automation of negotiation, for example in the setting of e-commerce. This interest is fueled by the promise of automated agents eventually being able to negotiate on behalf of human negotiators.Every year, automated negotiation agents are improving in various ways, and there is now a large body of negotiation strategies available, all with their unique strengths and weaknesses. For example, some agents are able to predict the opponent's preferences very well, while others focus more on having a sophisticated bidding strategy. The problem however, is that there is little incremental improvement in agent design, as the agents are tested in varying negotiation settings, using a diverse set of performance measures. This makes it very difficult to meaningfully compare the agents, let alone their underlying techniques. As a result, we lack a reliable way to pinpoint the most effective components in a negotiating agent.There are two major advantages of distinguishing between the different components of a negotiating agent's strategy: first, it allows the study of the behavior and performance of the components in isolation. For example, it becomes possible to compare the preference learning component of all agents, and to identify the best among them. Second, we can proceed to mix and match different components to create new negotiation strategies., e.g.: replacing the preference learning technique of an agent and then examining whether this makes a difference. Such a procedure enables us to combine the individual components to systematically explore the space of possible negotiation strategies.To develop a compositional approach to evaluate and combine the components, we identify structure in most agent designs by introducing the BOA architecture, in which we can develop and integrate the different components of a negotiating agent. We identify three main components of a general negotiation strategy; namely a bidding strategy (B), possibly an opponent model (O), and an acceptance strategy (A). The bidding strategy considers what concessions it deems appropriate given its own preferences, and takes the opponent into account by using an opponent model. The acceptance strategy decides whether offers proposed by the opponent should be accepted.The BOA architecture is integrated into a generic negotiation environment called Genius, which is a software environment for designing and evaluating negotiation strategies. To explore the negotiation strategy space of the negotiation research community, we amend the Genius repository with various existing agents and scenarios from literature. Additionally, we organize a yearly international negotiation competition (ANAC) to harvest even more strategies and scenarios. ANAC also acts as an evaluation tool for negotiation strategies, and encourages the design of negotiation strategies and scenarios.We re-implement agents from literature and ANAC and decouple them to fit into the BOA architecture without introducing any changes in their behavior. For each of the three components, we manage to find and analyze the best ones for specific cases, as described below. We show that the BOA framework leads to significant improvements in agent design by wining ANAC 2013, which had 19 participating teams from 8 international institutions, with an agent that is designed using the BOA framework and is informed by a preliminary analysis of the different components.In every negotiation, one of the negotiating parties must accept an offer to reach an agreement. Therefore, it is important that a negotiator employs a proficient mechanism to decide under which conditions to accept. When contemplating whether to accept an offer, the agent is faced with the acceptance dilemma: accepting the offer may be suboptimal, as better offers may still be presented before time runs out. On the other hand, accepting too late may prevent an agreement from being reached, resulting in a break off with no gain for either party. We classify and compare state-of-the-art generic acceptance conditions. We propose new acceptance strategies and we demonstrate that they outperform the other conditions. We also provide insight into why some conditions work better than others and investigate correlations between the properties of the negotiation scenario and the efficacy of acceptance conditions.Later, we adopt a more principled approach by applying optimal stopping theory to calculate the optimal decision on the acceptance of an offer. We approach the decision of whether to accept as a sequential decision problem, by modeling the bids received as a stochastic process. We determine the optimal acceptance policies for particular opponent classes and we present an approach to estimate the expected range of offers when the type of opponent is unknown. We show that the proposed approach is able to find the optimal time to accept, and improves upon all existing acceptance strategies.Another principal component of a negotiating agent's strategy is its ability to take the opponent's preferences into account. The quality of an opponent model can be measured in two different ways. One is to use the agent's performance as a benchmark for the model's quality. We evaluate and compare the performance of a selection of state-of-the-art opponent modeling techniques in negotiation. We provide an overview of the factors influencing the quality of a model and we analyze how the performance of opponent models depends on the negotiation setting. We identify a class of simple and surprisingly effective opponent modeling techniques that did not receive much previous attention in literature.The other way to measure the quality of an opponent model is to directly evaluate its accuracy by using similarity measures. We review all methods to measure the accuracy of an opponent model and we then analyze how changes in accuracy translate into performance differences. Moreover, we pinpoint the best predictors for good performance. This leads to new insights concerning how to construct an opponent model, and what we need to measure when optimizing performance.Finally, we take two different approaches to gain more insight into effective bidding strategies. We present a new classification method for negotiation strategies, based on their pattern of concession making against different kinds of opponents. We apply this technique to classify some well-known negotiating strategies, and we formulate guidelines on how agents should bid in order to be successful, which gives insight into the bidding strategy space of negotiating agents. Furthermore, we apply optimal stopping theory again, this time to find the concessions that maximize utility for the bidder against particular opponents. We show there is an interesting connection between optimal bidding and optimal acceptance strategies, in the sense that they are mirrored versions of each other.Lastly, after analyzing all components separately, we put the pieces back together again. We take all BOA components accumulated so far, including the best ones, and combine them all together to explore the space of negotiation strategies.We compute the contribution of each component to the overall negotiation result, and we study the interaction between components. We find that combining the best agent components indeed makes the strongest agents. This shows that the component-based view of the BOA architecture not only provides a useful basis for developing negotiating agents but also provides a useful analytical tool. By varying the BOA components we are able to demonstrate the contribution of each component to the negotiation result, and thus analyze the significance of each. The bidding strategy is by far the most important to consider, followed by the acceptance conditions and finally followed by the opponent model.Our results validate the analytical approach of the BOA framework to first optimize the individual components, and then to recombine them into a negotiating agent

An Initial Framework Assessing the Safety of Complex Systems

Trabajo presentado en la Conference on Complex Systems, celebrada online del 7 al 11 de diciembre de 2020.Atmospheric blocking events, that is large-scale nearly stationary atmospheric pressure patterns, are often associated with extreme weather in the mid-latitudes, such as heat waves and cold spells which have significant consequences on ecosystems, human health and economy. The high impact of blocking events has motivated numerous studies. However, there is not yet a comprehensive theory explaining their onset, maintenance and decay and their numerical prediction remains a challenge. In recent years, a number of studies have successfully employed complex network descriptions of fluid transport to characterize dynamical patterns in geophysical flows. The aim of the current work is to investigate the potential of so called Lagrangian flow networks for the detection and perhaps forecasting of atmospheric blocking events. The network is constructed by associating nodes to regions of the atmosphere and establishing links based on the flux of material between these nodes during a given time interval. One can then use effective tools and metrics developed in the context of graph theory to explore the atmospheric flow properties. In particular, Ser-Giacomi et al. [1] showed how optimal paths in a Lagrangian flow network highlight distinctive circulation patterns associated with atmospheric blocking events. We extend these results by studying the behavior of selected network measures (such as degree, entropy and harmonic closeness centrality)at the onset of and during blocking situations, demonstrating their ability to trace the spatio-temporal characteristics of these events.This research was conducted as part of the CAFE (Climate Advanced Forecasting of sub-seasonal Extremes) Innovative Training Network which has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under the Marie Skłodowska-Curie grant agreement No. 813844

The Cultural Evolution of Economic Development

Economic development has several stages, from the exchange of tools and weapons in prehistory, to the adoption of money systems, to globalised economies driven by digitally-represented currencies. These stages present different challenges to societies, but also common ones. Perhaps the most important of these is cooperation. Exchange puts parties in positions vulnerable to exploitation, as they have to give payment in anticipation of goods, or goods in anticipation of payment. At its origin, money use creates a similar situation in which a party gives up valuable objects for a promise of future repayment. Explaining the diversity in economic performance and money systems therefore requires consideration of ecological and cultural factors that shape the levels of cooperation in societies. History can also have an influence on this diversity. Events in a society’s history can have persistent effects on its culture and institutions, and more general patterns of shared history can determine how culturally similar societies are. A cultural evolutionary framework can be used to synthesise these different factors as part of the same explanation. Historical experiences, the ecology and cultural traits all shape variation in each other and create conditions that determine the adaptiveness of cooperation, and therefore the potential for money use and large-scale economic activity to emerge and spread. Using a multiple method and multiple hypothesis approach, in this thesis I seek to examine existing theories for variation in economic development and money use, and generate and test new hypotheses using a cultural evolutionary framework