A Flexible Combination Forecast Method for Modeling Agricultural Commodity Prices: A Case Study Iran’s ‎Livestock and Poultry Meat Market

In recent years, the fluctuation in agricultural commodity prices in Iran is increased and thus, accurate forecasting of price change is necessary. In this article, a flexible combined method in modeling monthly prices of beef, lamb and chicken from April 2001 to March 2021, was proposed. In this new method, three different approaches namely simple averaging, discounted and shrinkage methods were effectively used to combine the forecasting outputs of three hybrid methods (MLPANN-GA, MLPANN-PSO and MLPANN-ICA) together. In implementation stage of hybrid methods, based on test and error method, the optimal MLPANN structure was found with 3/2/4–6–1 architectures and the controlling parameters are carefully assigned. The results obtained from three hybrid methods indicate that, based on the RMSE statistical index, the MLPANN-ICA method performs the best when forecasting prices for beef, lamb, and chicken. The outputs of three combination approaches show that the shrinkage method, with a parameter value of K=0.25, achieves the highest prediction accuracy when forecasting prices for these three meats. In summary, the proposed method outperforms the other three hybrid methods overall

Deep Learning Detected Nutrient Deficiency in Chili Plant

Chili is a staple commodity that also affects the Indonesian economy due to high market demand. Proven in June 2019, chili is a contributor to Indonesia's inflation of 0.20% from 0.55%. One factor is crop failure due to malnutrition. In this study, the aim is to explore Deep Learning Technology in agriculture to help farmers be able to diagnose their plants, so that their plants are not malnourished. Using the RCNN algorithm as the architecture of this system. Use 270 datasets in 4 categories. The dataset used is primary data with chili samples in Boyolali Regency, Indonesia. The chili we use are curly chili. The results of this study are computers that can recognize nutrient deficiencies in chili plants based on image input received with the greatest testing accuracy of 82.61% and has the best mAP value of 15.57%

Renewable Energy Resource Assessment and Forecasting

In recent years, several projects and studies have been launched towards the development and use of new methodologies, in order to assess, monitor, and support clean forms of energy. Accurate estimation of the available energy potential is of primary importance, but is not always easy to achieve. The present Special Issue on ‘Renewable Energy Resource Assessment and Forecasting’ aims to provide a holistic approach to the above issues, by presenting multidisciplinary methodologies and tools that are able to support research projects and meet today’s technical, socio-economic, and decision-making needs. In particular, research papers, reviews, and case studies on the following subjects are presented: wind, wave and solar energy; biofuels; resource assessment of combined renewable energy forms; numerical models for renewable energy forecasting; integrated forecasted systems; energy for buildings; sustainable development; resource analysis tools and statistical models; extreme value analysis and forecasting for renewable energy resources

Influence of climate change and variability on Coffea arabica in the East African highlands

A thesis submitted in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy (Agroclimatology) at the University of Witwatersrand, 2017.Plant development is inherently linked to meteorological variability. The phenology, distribution and production of crops and wild relatives has already altered in response to climate change. Recent years have produced the warmest mean annual global temperatures since 1880, with 2016 setting the highest record thus far. Such profound changes have sparked investigations into the impact of temperature and rainfall on crop development, particularly those with profound economic importance such as coffee (C. arabica). The crop is a fundamental source of income for smallholder farming communities and governments throughout the tropical highlands. However, the impact of climate change on C. arabica has yet to be quantified using empirical data in East Africa, leaving uncertainty in the cultivable future of the crop. Therefore, the objective of this thesis is to investigate the influence of climate change and variability on C. arabica yields and phenology in East Africa. Using a spatio-temporal approach, trends and relationships between coffee performance and meteorological variables were analysed at different scales and time periods ranging from the macroclimatic national scale (49 year), to the meso- and microclimatic farm level (3 year) scale, and finally to the microclimatic canopy and leaf level (hourly) scales. Data from all three climatic continua reveal for the first time that temperatures, and particularly rapidly advancing night time temperatures, are having a substantial negative impact on C. arabica yields. Forecasting models based on these biophysical relationships indicate that by the year 2050, smallholder farmers would on average harvest approximately 50% of the yield they are achieving today. Warming night time temperatures are also responsible for advancing ripening and harvest phenology. As a result, bean filling and development time is reduced, thereby potentially resulting in lower quality coffee. Trends in precipitation do not appear to have any substantial impact on C. arabica yields or harvest phenology, however, it is proposed that rainfall would act synergistically with temperatures to influence plant development and other phenological phases such as flowering. Finally, thermography is introduced as a novel complementary technique to rapidly analyse the suitability of different agroecological systems on coffee physiology at the leaf level. High temporal resolution (hourly) data, illustrate the success of the method in variable meteorological and environmental conditions. The findings contribute to advancing the protocol for use at the canopy and plantation level on coffee, so that appropriate microenvironment designs and adaptation mechanisms be put in place to accommodate climatic change. Avoiding increments in night time temperatures is key to maintaining or improving yields and fruiting development. Farming at higher altitudes and novel agroforestry systems may assist in achieving lower night time temperatures. Importantly, data reveal that careful analysis of various cropping systems, particularly at lower altitudes, is critical for providing suitable microenvironments for the crop.XL201

Appropriate Wisdom, Technology, and Management toward Environmental Sustainability for Development

The protection and maintenance of environmental resources for future generations require responsible interaction between humans and the environment in order to avoid wasting natural resources. According to an ancient Native American proverb, “We do not inherit the Earth from our ancestors; we borrow it from our children.” This indigenous wisdom has the potential to play a significant role in defining environmental sustainability. Recent technological advances could sustain humankind and allow for comfortable living. However, not all of these advancements have the potential to protect the environment for future generations. Developing societies and maintaining the sustainability of the ecosystem require appropriate wisdom, technology, and management collaboration. This book is a collection of 19 important articles (15 research articles, 3 review papers, and 1 editorial) that were published in the Special Issue of the journal Sustainability entitled “Appropriate Wisdom, Technology, and Management toward Environmental Sustainability for Development” during 2021-2022.addresses the policymakers and decision-makers who are willing to develop societies that practice environmental sustainability, by collecting the most recent contributions on the appropriate wisdom, technology, and management regarding the different aspects of a community that can retain environmental sustainability

Renewable Energy

The demand for secure, affordable and clean energy is a priority call to humanity. Challenges associated with conventional energy resources, such as depletion of fossil fuels, high costs and associated greenhouse gas emissions, have stimulated interests in renewable energy resources. For instance, there have been clear gaps and rushed thoughts about replacing fossil-fuel driven engines with electric vehicles without long-term plans for energy security and recycling approaches. This book aims to provide a clear vision to scientists, industrialists and policy makers on renewable energy resources, predicted challenges and emerging applications. It can be used to help produce new technologies for sustainable, connected and harvested energy. A clear response to economic growth and clean environment demands is also illustrated

African Handbook of Climate Change Adaptation

This open access book discusses current thinking and presents the main issues and challenges associated with climate change in Africa. It introduces evidences from studies and projects which show how climate change adaptation is being - and may continue to be successfully implemented in African countries. Thanks to its scope and wide range of themes surrounding climate change, the ambition is that this book will be a lead publication on the topic, which may be regularly updated and hence capture further works. Climate change is a major global challenge. However, some geographical regions are more severly affected than others. One of these regions is the African continent. Due to a combination of unfavourable socio-economic and meteorological conditions, African countries are particularly vulnerable to climate change and its impacts. The recently released IPCC special report "Global Warming of 1.5º C" outlines the fact that keeping global warming by the level of 1.5º C is possible, but also suggested that an increase by 2º C could lead to crises with crops (agriculture fed by rain could drop by 50% in some African countries by 2020) and livestock production, could damage water supplies and pose an additonal threat to coastal areas. The 5th Assessment Report produced by IPCC predicts that wheat may disappear from Africa by 2080, and that maize— a staple—will fall significantly in southern Africa. Also, arid and semi-arid lands are likely to increase by up to 8%, with severe ramifications for livelihoods, poverty eradication and meeting the SDGs. Pursuing appropriate adaptation strategies is thus vital, in order to address the current and future challenges posed by a changing climate. It is against this background that the "African Handbook of Climate Change Adaptation" is being published. It contains papers prepared by scholars, representatives from social movements, practitioners and members of governmental agencies, undertaking research and/or executing climate change projects in Africa, and working with communities across the African continent. Encompassing over 100 contribtions from across Africa, it is the most comprehensive publication on climate change adaptation in Africa ever produced

Life Skills Education for Children with Special Needs In Order to Facilitate Vocational Skills

Children with special needs generally consist of children who experience delays and disruptions in their development so that require special handling to improve the ability of children with special needs. After conducting a survey at several extraordinary schools (SLB) in Makassar, it was found that the conventional delivery of materials from teachers resulted in an uncomfortable situation so that the students 'interest to learn a particular subject was very low, therefore a learning method was needed that could attract students' interest in following the lesson. Students hope to gain more knowledge and experience as study results, while teachers, on the other hand, expect that practical learning process can bring achievement in term of better cognitive, psychomotor, affective changes, and improvement of student life skill. After producing a Multimedia Based Learning model, this research carried out trial test on the developed product to several students of SLB (Sekolah Luar Biasa) in Makassar. It was found that the use of this Multimedia Based Learning Model by SLB students can develop their life skills such as personal skills, thinking skills, social skills, and vocational skills

Crab and cockle shells as heterogeneous catalysts in the production of biodiesel

In the present study, the waste crab and cockle shells were utilized as source of calcium oxide to transesterify palm olein into methyl esters (biodiesel). Characterization results revealed that the main component of the shells are calcium carbonate which transformed into calcium oxide upon activated above 700 °C for 2 h. Parametric studies have been investigated and optimal conditions were found to be catalyst amount, 5 wt.% and methanol/oil mass ratio, 0.5:1. The waste catalysts perform equally well as laboratory CaO, thus creating another low-cost catalyst source for producing biodiesel. Reusability results confirmed that the prepared catalyst is able to be reemployed up to five times. Statistical analysis has been performed using a Central Composite Design to evaluate the contribution and performance of the parameters on biodiesel purity