Variance Estimation in a Random Coefficients Model

This papers describes an estimator for a standard state-space model with coefficients generated by a random walk that is statistically superior to the Kalman filter as applied to this particular class of models. Two closely related estimators for the variances are introduced: A maximum likelihood estimator and a moments estimator that builds on the idea that some moments are equalized to their expectations. These estimators perform quite similar in many cases. In some cases, however, the moments estimator is preferable both to the proposed likelihood estimator and the Kalman filter, as implemented in the program package Eviews

High-Dimensional Density Ratio Estimation with Extensions to Approximate Likelihood Computation

The ratio between two probability density functions is an important component of various tasks, including selection bias correction, novelty detection and classification. Recently, several estimators of this ratio have been proposed. Most of these methods fail if the sample space is high-dimensional, and hence require a dimension reduction step, the result of which can be a significant loss of information. Here we propose a simple-to-implement, fully nonparametric density ratio estimator that expands the ratio in terms of the eigenfunctions of a kernel-based operator; these functions reflect the underlying geometry of the data (e.g., submanifold structure), often leading to better estimates without an explicit dimension reduction step. We show how our general framework can be extended to address another important problem, the estimation of a likelihood function in situations where that function cannot be well-approximated by an analytical form. One is often faced with this situation when performing statistical inference with data from the sciences, due the complexity of the data and of the processes that generated those data. We emphasize applications where using existing likelihood-free methods of inference would be challenging due to the high dimensionality of the sample space, but where our spectral series method yields a reasonable estimate of the likelihood function. We provide theoretical guarantees and illustrate the effectiveness of our proposed method with numerical experiments.Comment: With supplementary materia

Gravitational Wave Burst Source Direction Estimation using Time and Amplitude Information

In this article we study two problems that arise when using timing and amplitude estimates from a network of interferometers (IFOs) to evaluate the direction of an incident gravitational wave burst (GWB). First, we discuss an angular bias in the least squares timing-based approach that becomes increasingly relevant for moderate to low signal-to-noise ratios. We show how estimates of the arrival time uncertainties in each detector can be used to correct this bias. We also introduce a stand alone parameter estimation algorithm that can improve the arrival time estimation and provide root-sum-squared strain amplitude (hrss) values for each site. In the second part of the paper we discuss how to resolve the directional ambiguity that arises from observations in three non co-located interferometers between the true source location and its mirror image across the plane containing the detectors. We introduce a new, exact relationship among the hrss values at the three sites that, for sufficiently large signal amplitudes, determines the true source direction regardless of whether or not the signal is linearly polarized. Both the algorithm estimating arrival times, arrival time uncertainties, and hrss values and the directional follow-up can be applied to any set of gravitational wave candidates observed in a network of three non co-located interferometers. As a case study we test the methods on simulated waveforms embedded in simulations of the noise of the LIGO and Virgo detectors at design sensitivity.Comment: 10 pages, 14 figures, submitted to PR

ppmlhdfe: Fast Poisson Estimation with High-Dimensional Fixed Effects

In this paper we present ppmlhdfe, a new Stata command for estimation of (pseudo) Poisson regression models with multiple high-dimensional fixed effects (HDFE). Estimation is implemented using a modified version of the iteratively reweighted least-squares (IRLS) algorithm that allows for fast estimation in the presence of HDFE. Because the code is built around the reghdfe package, it has similar syntax, supports many of the same functionalities, and benefits from reghdfe's fast convergence properties for computing high-dimensional least squares problems. Performance is further enhanced by some new techniques we introduce for accelerating HDFE-IRLS estimation specifically. ppmlhdfe also implements a novel and more robust approach to check for the existence of (pseudo) maximum likelihood estimates.Comment: For associated code and data repository, see https://github.com/sergiocorreia/ppmlhdf

Variance Estimation in a Random Coefficients Model

This papers describes an estimator for a standard state-space model with coefficients generated by a random walk that is statistically superior to the Kalman filter as applied to this particular class of models. Two closely related estimators for the variances are introduced: A maximum likelihood estimator and a moments estimator that builds on the idea that some moments are equalized to their expectations. These estimators perform quite similar in many cases. In some cases, however, the moments estimator is preferable both to the proposed likelihood estimator and the Kalman filter, as implemented in the program package Eviews.time-varying coefficients; adaptive estimation; random walk; Kalman filter; state-space model

Sizes and Temperature Profiles of Quasar Accretion Disks from Chromatic Microlensing

Microlensing perturbations to the flux ratios of gravitationally lensed quasar images can vary with wavelength because of the chromatic dependence of the accretion disk's apparent size. Multiwavelength observations of microlensed quasars can thus constrain the temperature profiles of their accretion disks, a fundamental test of an important astrophysical process which is not currently possible using any other method. We present single-epoch broadband flux ratios for 12 quadruply lensed quasars in eight bands ranging from 0.36 to 2.2 microns, as well as Chandra 0.5--8 keV flux ratios for five of them. We combine the optical/IR and X-ray ratios, together with X-ray ratios from the literature, using a Bayesian approach to constrain the half-light radii of the quasars in each filter. Comparing the overall disk sizes and wavelength slopes to those predicted by the standard thin accretion disk model, we find that on average the disks are larger than predicted by nearly an order of magnitude, with sizes that grow with wavelength with an average slope of ~0.2 rather than the slope of 4/3 predicted by the standard thin disk theory. Though the error bars on the slope are large for individual quasars, the large sample size lends weight to the overall result. Our results present severe difficulties for a standard thin accretion disk as the main source of UV/optical radiation from quasars.Comment: 21 pages, 9 tables, 10 figures. Fairly significant changes made to match published version, including the addition of an extra table, and extra figure, and some explanatory tex

Principal arc analysis on direct product manifolds

We propose a new approach to analyze data that naturally lie on manifolds. We focus on a special class of manifolds, called direct product manifolds, whose intrinsic dimension could be very high. Our method finds a low-dimensional representation of the manifold that can be used to find and visualize the principal modes of variation of the data, as Principal Component Analysis (PCA) does in linear spaces. The proposed method improves upon earlier manifold extensions of PCA by more concisely capturing important nonlinear modes. For the special case of data on a sphere, variation following nongeodesic arcs is captured in a single mode, compared to the two modes needed by previous methods. Several computational and statistical challenges are resolved. The development on spheres forms the basis of principal arc analysis on more complicated manifolds. The benefits of the method are illustrated by a data example using medial representations in image analysis.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/10-AOAS370 the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org