A Comprehensive Survey of Data Mining Techniques on Time Series Data for Rainfall Prediction

Time series data available in huge amounts can be used in decision-making. Such time series data can be converted into information to be used for forecasting. Various techniques are available for prediction and forecasting on the basis of time series data. Presently, the use of data mining techniques for this purpose is increasing day by day. In the present study, a comprehensive survey of data mining approaches and statistical techniques for rainfall prediction on time series data was conducted. A detailed comparison of different relevant techniques was also conducted and some plausible solutions are suggested for efficient time series data mining techniques for future algorithms.

Forecasting seasonal hydrologic response in major river basins.

Seasonal precipitation variation due to natural climate variation influences stream flow and the apparent frequency and severity of extreme hydrological conditions such as flood and drought. To study hydrologic response and understand the occurrence of extreme hydrological events, the relevant forcing variables must be identified. This study attempts to assess and quantify the historical occurrence and context of extreme hydrologic flow events and quantify the relation between relevant climate variables. Once identified, the flow data and climate variables are evaluated to identify the primary relationship indicators of hydrologic extreme event occurrence. Existing studies focus on developing basin-scale forecasting techniques based on climate anomalies in El Nino/La Nina episodes linked to global climate. Building on earlier work, the goal of this research is to quantify variations in historical river flows at seasonal temporal-scale, and regional to continental spatial-scale. The work identifies and quantifies runoff variability of major river basins and correlates flow with environmental forcing variables such as El Nino, La Nina, sunspot cycle. These variables are expected to be the primary external natural indicators of inter-annual and inter-seasonal patterns of regional precipitation and river flow. Relations between continental-scale hydrologic flows and external climate variables are evaluated through direct correlations in a seasonal context with environmental phenomenon such as sun spot numbers (SSN), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Methods including stochastic time series analysis and artificial neural networks are developed to represent the seasonal variability evident in the historical records of river flows. River flows are categorized into low, average and high flow levels to evaluate and simulate flow variations under associated climate variable variations. Results demonstrated not any particular method is suited to represent scenarios leading to extreme flow conditions. For selected flow scenarios, the persistence model performance may be comparable to more complex multivariate approaches, and complex methods did not always improve flow estimation. Overall model performance indicates inclusion of river flows and forcing variables on average improve model extreme event forecasting skills. As a means to further refine the flow estimation, an ensemble forecast method is implemented to provide a likelihood-based indication of expected river flow magnitude and variability. Results indicate seasonal flow variations are well-captured in the ensemble range, therefore the ensemble approach can often prove efficient in estimating extreme river flow conditions. The discriminant prediction approach, a probabilistic measure to forecast streamflow, is also adopted to derive model performance. Results show the efficiency of the method in terms of representing uncertainties in the forecasts

Short-Term Forecasting of Passenger Demand under On-Demand Ride Services: A Spatio-Temporal Deep Learning Approach

Short-term passenger demand forecasting is of great importance to the on-demand ride service platform, which can incentivize vacant cars moving from over-supply regions to over-demand regions. The spatial dependences, temporal dependences, and exogenous dependences need to be considered simultaneously, however, which makes short-term passenger demand forecasting challenging. We propose a novel deep learning (DL) approach, named the fusion convolutional long short-term memory network (FCL-Net), to address these three dependences within one end-to-end learning architecture. The model is stacked and fused by multiple convolutional long short-term memory (LSTM) layers, standard LSTM layers, and convolutional layers. The fusion of convolutional techniques and the LSTM network enables the proposed DL approach to better capture the spatio-temporal characteristics and correlations of explanatory variables. A tailored spatially aggregated random forest is employed to rank the importance of the explanatory variables. The ranking is then used for feature selection. The proposed DL approach is applied to the short-term forecasting of passenger demand under an on-demand ride service platform in Hangzhou, China. Experimental results, validated on real-world data provided by DiDi Chuxing, show that the FCL-Net achieves better predictive performance than traditional approaches including both classical time-series prediction models and neural network based algorithms (e.g., artificial neural network and LSTM). This paper is one of the first DL studies to forecast the short-term passenger demand of an on-demand ride service platform by examining the spatio-temporal correlations.Comment: 39 pages, 10 figure

An Analytics Prediction Model of Monthly Rainfall Time Series: Case of Thailand

Rainfall prediction is regarded as a challenging task in an agricultural country like Thailand. A time series data especially rainfall and temperature needs analytics technologies to return a valuable knowledge. It has been recognized that a high accuracy of rainfall prediction model will be helpful for agriculturist and water management. The study area of this research is located in Thailand, which the daily rainfall and temperature time series data collected from five regions of Thailand were taken by Meteorological Department of Thailand from years 2000 to 2015. In this research, analytics method is proposed in the preprocessing steps, which are composed of data cleansing and data transform. Principal component analysis in feature selection step and weighted moving average are applied. In the prediction modeling, support vector regression (SVR) and artificial neural network (ANN) are employed. The results of the experiment showed the comparison of overall accuracy between ANN and SVR in five data sets over the area of study. The results of the experiment showed that the two prediction models gave a high overall accuracy, although SVR plays an important advantage in less computational time than ANN. This experiment is extremely useful not only as the most effective way to manage the amount of rainfall in water management for Thai agriculturist, but the proposed model can also become a representative in the monthly rainfall prediction model used in Thailand

Explainable Physics-informed Deep Learning for Rainfall-runoff Modeling and Uncertainty Assessment across the Continental United States

Hydrologic models provide a comprehensive tool to calibrate streamflow response to environmental variables. Various hydrologic modeling approaches, ranging from physically based to conceptual to entirely data-driven models, have been widely used for hydrologic simulation. During the recent years, however, Deep Learning (DL), a new generation of Machine Learning (ML), has transformed hydrologic simulation research to a new direction. DL methods have recently proposed for rainfall-runoff modeling that complement both distributed and conceptual hydrologic models, particularly in a catchment where data to support a process-based model is scared and limited. This dissertation investigated the applicability of two advanced probabilistic physics-informed DL algorithms, i.e., deep autoregressive network (DeepAR) and temporal fusion transformer (TFT), for daily rainfall-runoff modeling across the continental United States (CONUS). We benchmarked our proposed models against several physics-based hydrologic approaches such as the Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting Model (SAC-SMA), Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC), Framework for Understanding Structural Errors (FUSE), Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV), and the mesoscale hydrologic model (mHM). These benchmark models can be distinguished into two different groups. The first group are the models calibrated for each basin individually (e.g., SAC-SMA, VIC, FUSE2, mHM and HBV) while the second group, including our physics-informed approaches, is made up of the models that were regionally calibrated. Models in this group share one parameter set for all basins in the dataset. All the approaches were implemented and tested using Catchment Attributes and Meteorology for Large-sample Studies (CAMELS)\u27s Maurer datasets. We developed the TFT and DeepAR with two different configurations i.e., with (physics-informed model) and without (the original model) static attributes. Various catchment static and dynamic physical attributes were incorporated into the pipeline with various spatiotemporal variabilities to simulate how a drainage system responds to rainfall-runoff processes. To demonstrate how the model learned to differentiate between different rainfall–runoff behaviors across different catchments and to identify the dominant process, sensitivity and explainability analysis of modeling outcomes are also performed. Despite recent advancements, deep networks are perceived as being challenging to parameterize; thus, their simulation may propagate error and uncertainty in modeling. To address uncertainty, a quantile likelihood function was incorporated as the TFT loss function. The results suggest that the physics-informed TFT model was superior in predicting high and low flow fluctuations compared to the original TFT and DeepAR models (without static attributes) or even the physics-informed DeepAR. Physics-informed TFT model well recognized which static attributes more contributing to streamflow generation of each specific catchment considering its climate, topography, land cover, soil, and geological conditions. The interpretability and the ability of the physics-informed TFT model to assimilate the multisource of information and parameters make it a strong candidate for regional as well as continental-scale hydrologic simulations. It was noted that both physics-informed TFT and DeepAR were more successful in learning the intermediate flow and high flow regimes rather than the low flow regime. The advantage of the high flow can be attributed to learning a more generalizable mapping between static and dynamic attributes and runoff parameters. It seems both TFT and DeepAR may have enabled the learning of some true processes that are missing from both conceptual and physics-based models, possibly related to deep soil water storage (the layer where soil water is not sensitive to daily evapotranspiration), saturated hydraulic conductivity, and vegetation dynamics

Flood Forecasting Using Machine Learning Methods

This book is a printed edition of the Special Issue Flood Forecasting Using Machine Learning Methods that was published in Wate

HISTORICAL AND FORECASTED KENTUCKY SPECIFIC SLOPE STABILITY ANALYSES USING REMOTELY RETRIEVED HYDROLOGIC AND GEOMORPHOLOGIC DATA

Hazard analyses of rainfall-induced landslides have typically been observed to experience a lack of inclusion of measurements of soil moisture within a given soil layer at a site of interest. Soil moisture is a hydromechanical variable capable of both strength gains and reductions within soil systems. However, in situ monitoring of soil moisture at every site of interest is an unfeasible goal. Therefore, spatiotemporal estimates of soil moisture that are representative of in-situ conditions are required for use in subsequent landslide hazard analyses. This study brings together various techniques for the acquisition, modeling, and forecasting of spatiotemporal retrievals of soil moisture across areas of Eastern Kentucky for use in hazard analyses. These techniques include: A novel approach for determination of satellite-based soil moisture retrieval correction factors for use in acquisition of low orbit-based soil moisture retrievals in site-specific analyses, unique spatiotemporal modeling of soil moisture at various depths within the soil layer through assimilation of satellite-based and land surface modeled soil moisture estimates, and the development of a novel workflow to effectively provide 7-day forecasts of soil moisture for use in subsequent forecasting of landslide hazards. Soil moisture retrieved through the previous approaches was implemented within landslide hazard and susceptibility analyses across known rainfall-induced landslides within Eastern Kentucky. Investigated analyses were conducted through a coupling of spatial soil moisture retrievals with that of site-specific geomorphologic data. These analyses proved capable in the detection of incipient failure conditions indicative of landslide occurrence over these known investigated slides. These soil moisture-based analyses show that inclusion of soil moisture, as hydromechanical variable, yields a more capable hazard analysis approach. Additionally, these analyses serve as a means to gain a better understanding of the coupled hydro-mechanical behavior associated with the initiation of rainfall-induced landslides

Probabilistic and artificial intelligence modelling of drought and agricultural crop yield in Pakistan

Pakistan is a drought-prone, agricultural nation with hydro-meteorological imbalances that increase the scarcity of water resources, thus, constraining water availability and leading major risks to the agricultural productivity sector and food security. Rainfall and drought are imperative matters of consideration, both for hydrological and agricultural applications. The aim of this doctoral thesis is to advance new knowledge in designing hybridized probabilistic and artificial intelligence forecasts models for rainfall, drought and crop yield within the agricultural hubs in Pakistan. The choice of these study regions is a strategic decision, to focus on precision agriculture given the importance of rainfall and drought events on agricultural crops in socioeconomic activities of Pakistan. The outcomes of this PhD contribute to efficient modelling of seasonal rainfall, drought and crop yield to assist farmers and other stakeholders to promote more strategic decisions for better management of climate risk for agriculturalreliant nations