Wind energy forecasting with neural networks: a literature review

Renewable energy is intermittent by nature and to integrate this energy into the Grid while assuring safety and stability the accurate forecasting of there newable energy generation is critical. Wind Energy prediction is based on the ability to forecast wind. There are many methods for wind forecasting based on the statistical properties of the wind time series and in the integration of meteorological information, these methods are being used commercially around the world. But one family of new methods for wind power fore castingis surging based on Machine Learning Deep Learning techniques. This paper analyses the characteristics of the Wind Speed time series data and performs a literature review of recently published works of wind power forecasting using Machine Learning approaches (neural and deep learning networks), which have been published in the last few years.Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version

Wind Power Forecasting Methods Based on Deep Learning: A Survey

Accurate wind power forecasting in wind farm can effectively reduce the enormous impact on grid operation safety when high permeability intermittent power supply is connected to the power grid. Aiming to provide reference strategies for relevant researchers as well as practical applications, this paper attempts to provide the literature investigation and methods analysis of deep learning, enforcement learning and transfer learning in wind speed and wind power forecasting modeling. Usually, wind speed and wind power forecasting around a wind farm requires the calculation of the next moment of the definite state, which is usually achieved based on the state of the atmosphere that encompasses nearby atmospheric pressure, temperature, roughness, and obstacles. As an effective method of high-dimensional feature extraction, deep neural network can theoretically deal with arbitrary nonlinear transformation through proper structural design, such as adding noise to outputs, evolutionary learning used to optimize hidden layer weights, optimize the objective function so as to save information that can improve the output accuracy while filter out the irrelevant or less affected information for forecasting. The establishment of high-precision wind speed and wind power forecasting models is always a challenge due to the randomness, instantaneity and seasonal characteristics

Multivariate time series analysis for short-term forecasting of ground level ozone (O3) in Malaysia

The declining of air quality mostly affects the elderly, children, people with asthma, as well as a restriction on outdoor activities. Therefore, there is an importance to provide a statistical modelling to forecast the future values of surface layer ozone (O3) concentration. The objectives of this study are to obtain the best multivariate time series (MTS) model and develop an online air quality forecasting system for O3 concentration in Malaysia. The implementations of MTS model improve the recent statistical model on air quality for short-term prediction. Ten air quality monitoring stations situated at four (4) different types of location were selected in this study. The first type is industrial represent by Pasir Gudang, Perai, and Nilai, second type is urban represent by Kuala Terengganu, Kota Bharu, and Alor Setar. The third is suburban located in Banting, Kangar, and Tanjung Malim, also the only background station at Jerantut. The hourly record data from 2010 to 2017 were used to assess the characteristics and behaviour of O3 concentration. Meanwhile, the monthly record data of O3, particulate matter (PM10), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), sulphur dioxide (SO2), carbon monoxide (CO), temperature (T), wind speed (WS), and relative humidity (RH) were used to examine the best MTS models. Three methods of MTS namely vector autoregressive (VAR), vector moving average (VMA), and vector autoregressive moving average (VARMA), has been applied in this study. Based on the performance error, the most appropriate MTS model located in Pasir Gudang, Kota Bharu and Kangar is VAR(1), Kuala Terengganu and Alor Setar for VAR(2), Perai and Nilai for VAR(3), Tanjung Malim for VAR(4) and Banting for VAR(5). Only Jerantut obtained the VMA(2) as the best model. The lowest root mean square error (RMSE) and normalized absolute error is 0.0053 and <0.0001 which is for MTS model in Perai and Kuala Terengganu, respectively. Meanwhile, for mean absolute error (MAE), the lowest is in Banting and Jerantut at 0.0013. The online air quality forecasting system for O3 was successfully developed based on the best MTS models to represent each monitoring station

Nature-Inspired Adaptive Architecture for Soft Sensor Modelling

This paper gives a general overview of the challenges present in the research field of Soft Sensor building and proposes a novel architecture for building of Soft Sensors, which copes with the identified challenges. The architecture is inspired and making use of nature-related techniques for computational intelligence. Another aspect, which is addressed by the proposed architecture, are the identified characteristics of the process industry data. The data recorded in the process industry consist usually of certain amount of missing values or sample exceeding meaningful values of the measurements, called data outliers. Other process industry data properties causing problems for the modelling are the collinearity of the data, drifting data and the different sampling rates of the particular hardware sensors. It is these characteristics which are the source of the need for an adaptive behaviour of Soft Sensors. The architecture reflects this need and provides mechanisms for the adaptation and evolution of the Soft Sensor at different levels. The adaptation capabilities are provided by maintaining a variety of rather simple models. These particular models, called paths in terms of the architecture, can for example focus on different partition of the input data space, or provide different adaptation speeds to changes in the data. The actual modelling techniques involved into the architecture are data-driven computational learning approaches like artificial neural networks, principal component regression, etc

Application of Computational Intelligence Techniques to Process Industry Problems

In the last two decades there has been a large progress in the computational intelligence research field. The fruits of the effort spent on the research in the discussed field are powerful techniques for pattern recognition, data mining, data modelling, etc. These techniques achieve high performance on traditional data sets like the UCI machine learning database. Unfortunately, this kind of data sources usually represent clean data without any problems like data outliers, missing values, feature co-linearity, etc. common to real-life industrial data. The presence of faulty data samples can have very harmful effects on the models, for example if presented during the training of the models, it can either cause sub-optimal performance of the trained model or in the worst case destroy the so far learnt knowledge of the model. For these reasons the application of present modelling techniques to industrial problems has developed into a research field on its own. Based on the discussion of the properties and issues of the data and the state-of-the-art modelling techniques in the process industry, in this paper a novel unified approach to the development of predictive models in the process industry is presented

Hybrid Ventilation System and Soft-Sensors for Maintaining Indoor Air Quality and Thermal Comfort in Buildings

Maintaining both indoor air quality (IAQ) and thermal comfort in buildings along with optimized energy consumption is a challenging problem. This investigation presents a novel design for hybrid ventilation system enabled by predictive control and soft-sensors to achieve both IAQ and thermal comfort by combining predictive control with demand controlled ventilation (DCV). First, we show that the problem of maintaining IAQ, thermal comfort and optimal energy is a multi-objective optimization problem with competing objectives, and a predictive control approach is required to smartly control the system. This leads to many implementation challenges which are addressed by designing a hybrid ventilation scheme supported by predictive control and soft-sensors. The main idea of the hybrid ventilation system is to achieve thermal comfort by varying the ON/OFF times of the air conditioners to maintain the temperature within user-defined bands using a predictive control and IAQ is maintained using Healthbox 3.0, a DCV device. Furthermore, this study also designs soft-sensors by combining the Internet of Things (IoT)-based sensors with deep-learning tools. The hardware realization of the control and IoT prototype is also discussed. The proposed novel hybrid ventilation system and the soft-sensors are demonstrated in a real research laboratory, i.e., Center for Research in Automatic Control Engineering (C-RACE) located at Kalasalingam University, India. Our results show the perceived benefits of hybrid ventilation, predictive control, and soft-sensors

Efficient Neural Network Implementations on Parallel Embedded Platforms Applied to Real-Time Torque-Vectoring Optimization Using Predictions for Multi-Motor Electric Vehicles

The combination of machine learning and heterogeneous embedded platforms enables new potential for developing sophisticated control concepts which are applicable to the field of vehicle dynamics and ADAS. This interdisciplinary work provides enabler solutions -ultimately implementing fast predictions using neural networks (NNs) on field programmable gate arrays (FPGAs) and graphical processing units (GPUs)- while applying them to a challenging application: Torque Vectoring on a multi-electric-motor vehicle for enhanced vehicle dynamics. The foundation motivating this work is provided by discussing multiple domains of the technological context as well as the constraints related to the automotive field, which contrast with the attractiveness of exploiting the capabilities of new embedded platforms to apply advanced control algorithms for complex control problems. In this particular case we target enhanced vehicle dynamics on a multi-motor electric vehicle benefiting from the greater degrees of freedom and controllability offered by such powertrains. Considering the constraints of the application and the implications of the selected multivariable optimization challenge, we propose a NN to provide batch predictions for real-time optimization. This leads to the major contribution of this work: efficient NN implementations on two intrinsically parallel embedded platforms, a GPU and a FPGA, following an analysis of theoretical and practical implications of their different operating paradigms, in order to efficiently harness their computing potential while gaining insight into their peculiarities. The achieved results exceed the expectations and additionally provide a representative illustration of the strengths and weaknesses of each kind of platform. Consequently, having shown the applicability of the proposed solutions, this work contributes valuable enablers also for further developments following similar fundamental principles.Some of the results presented in this work are related to activities within the 3Ccar project, which has received funding from ECSEL Joint Undertaking under grant agreement No. 662192. This Joint Undertaking received support from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme and Germany, Austria, Czech Republic, Romania, Belgium, United Kingdom, France, Netherlands, Latvia, Finland, Spain, Italy, Lithuania. This work was also partly supported by the project ENABLES3, which received funding from ECSEL Joint Undertaking under grant agreement No. 692455-2