31 research outputs found
Enhanced artificial bee colony-least squares support vector machines algorithm for time series prediction
Over the past decades, the Least Squares Support Vector Machines (LSSVM) has been widely utilized in prediction task of various application domains. Nevertheless, existing literature showed that the capability of LSSVM is highly dependent on the value of its hyper-parameters, namely regularization parameter and kernel parameter, where this would greatly affect the generalization of LSSVM in prediction task. This study proposed a hybrid algorithm, based on Artificial Bee Colony (ABC) and LSSVM, that consists of three algorithms; ABC-LSSVM, lvABC-LSSVM and cmABC-LSSVM. The lvABC algorithm is introduced to overcome the local optima problem by enriching the searching behaviour using Levy mutation. On the other
hand, the cmABC algorithm that incorporates conventional mutation addresses the over-
fitting or under-fitting problem. The combination of lvABC and cmABC algorithm, which is later introduced as Enhanced Artificial Bee Colony–Least Squares Support Vector Machine (eABC-LSSVM), is realized in prediction of non
renewable natural resources commodity price. Upon the completion of data collection and data pre processing, the eABC-LSSVM algorithm is designed and developed. The predictability of eABC-LSSVM is measured based on five statistical
metrics which include Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), prediction accuracy, symmetric MAPE (sMAPE), Root Mean Square Percentage Error
(RMSPE) and Theils’ U. Results showed that the eABC-LSSVM possess lower prediction error rate as compared to eight hybridization models of LSSVM and Evolutionary Computation (EC) algorithms. In addition, the proposed algorithm is compared to single prediction techniques, namely, Support Vector Machines (SVM) and Back Propagation Neural Network (BPNN). In general, the eABC-LSSVM produced more than 90% prediction accuracy. This indicates that the proposed eABC-LSSVM is capable of solving optimization problem, specifically in the
prediction task. The eABC-LSSVM is hoped to be useful to investors and commodities traders in planning their investment and projecting their profit
Hybrid Advanced Optimization Methods with Evolutionary Computation Techniques in Energy Forecasting
More accurate and precise energy demand forecasts are required when energy decisions are made in a competitive environment. Particularly in the Big Data era, forecasting models are always based on a complex function combination, and energy data are always complicated. Examples include seasonality, cyclicity, fluctuation, dynamic nonlinearity, and so on. These forecasting models have resulted in an over-reliance on the use of informal judgment and higher expenses when lacking the ability to determine data characteristics and patterns. The hybridization of optimization methods and superior evolutionary algorithms can provide important improvements via good parameter determinations in the optimization process, which is of great assistance to actions taken by energy decision-makers. This book aimed to attract researchers with an interest in the research areas described above. Specifically, it sought contributions to the development of any hybrid optimization methods (e.g., quadratic programming techniques, chaotic mapping, fuzzy inference theory, quantum computing, etc.) with advanced algorithms (e.g., genetic algorithms, ant colony optimization, particle swarm optimization algorithm, etc.) that have superior capabilities over the traditional optimization approaches to overcome some embedded drawbacks, and the application of these advanced hybrid approaches to significantly improve forecasting accuracy
Forecasting methods in energy planning models
Energy planning models (EPMs) play an indispensable role in policy formulation and energy sector development. The forecasting of energy demand and supply is at the heart of an EPM. Different forecasting methods, from statistical to machine learning have been applied in the past. The selection of a forecasting method is mostly based on data availability and the objectives of the tool and planning exercise. We present a systematic and critical review of forecasting methods used in 483 EPMs. The methods were analyzed for forecasting accuracy; applicability for temporal and spatial predictions; and relevance to planning and policy objectives. Fifty different forecasting methods have been identified. Artificial neural network (ANN) is the most widely used method, which is applied in 40% of the reviewed EPMs. The other popular methods, in descending order, are: support vector machine (SVM), autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), fuzzy logic (FL), linear regression (LR), genetic algorithm (GA), particle swarm optimization (PSO), grey prediction (GM) and autoregressive moving average (ARMA). In terms of accuracy, computational intelligence (CI) methods demonstrate better performance than that of the statistical ones, in particular for parameters with greater variability in the source data. However, hybrid methods yield better accuracy than that of the stand-alone ones. Statistical methods are useful for only short and medium range, while CI methods are preferable for all temporal forecasting ranges (short, medium and long). Based on objective, most EPMs focused on energy demand and load forecasting. In terms geographical coverage, the highest number of EPMs were developed on China. However, collectively, more models were established for the developed countries than the developing ones. Findings would benefit researchers and professionals in gaining an appreciation of the forecasting methods, and enable them to select appropriate method(s) to meet their needs
Applied Metaheuristic Computing
For decades, Applied Metaheuristic Computing (AMC) has been a prevailing optimization technique for tackling perplexing engineering and business problems, such as scheduling, routing, ordering, bin packing, assignment, facility layout planning, among others. This is partly because the classic exact methods are constrained with prior assumptions, and partly due to the heuristics being problem-dependent and lacking generalization. AMC, on the contrary, guides the course of low-level heuristics to search beyond the local optimality, which impairs the capability of traditional computation methods. This topic series has collected quality papers proposing cutting-edge methodology and innovative applications which drive the advances of AMC
Applications of Computational Intelligence to Power Systems
In power system operation and control, the basic goal is to provide users with quality electricity power in an economically rational degree for power systems, and to ensure their stability and reliability. However, the increased interconnection and loading of the power system along with deregulation and environmental concerns has brought new challenges for electric power system operation, control, and automation. In the liberalised electricity market, the operation and control of a power system has become a complex process because of the complexity in modelling and uncertainties. Computational intelligence (CI) is a family of modern tools for solving complex problems that are difficult to solve using conventional techniques, as these methods are based on several requirements that may not be true all of the time. Developing solutions with these “learning-based” tools offers the following two major advantages: the development time is much shorter than when using more traditional approaches, and the systems are very robust, being relatively insensitive to noisy and/or missing data/information, known as uncertainty
Applied Methuerstic computing
For decades, Applied Metaheuristic Computing (AMC) has been a prevailing optimization technique for tackling perplexing engineering and business problems, such as scheduling, routing, ordering, bin packing, assignment, facility layout planning, among others. This is partly because the classic exact methods are constrained with prior assumptions, and partly due to the heuristics being problem-dependent and lacking generalization. AMC, on the contrary, guides the course of low-level heuristics to search beyond the local optimality, which impairs the capability of traditional computation methods. This topic series has collected quality papers proposing cutting-edge methodology and innovative applications which drive the advances of AMC
Decarbonization cost of Bangladesh's energy sector: Influence of corruption
As a rapidly developing lower-middle income country, Bangladesh has been maintaining
a steady growth of +5% in the gross domestic product (GDP) annually since
2004, eventually reaching 7.1% in 2016. The country is targeting to become uppermiddle-
income and developed by 2021 and 2041 respectively, which translates to an
annual GDP growth rate of 7.58% during this period. The bulk of this growth
is expected to come from the manufacturing sector, the significant shift towards
which started at the turn of this century. Energy intensity of manufacturing-based
growth is higher, the evidence of which can be seen in the 3.17 times increase in
national energy consumption between 2001 and 2014. Also, Bangladesh aims to
achieve 100% electrification rate by 2021 against an annual population growth rate
of 1.08%. With the increasing per capita income, there is now a growing middle
class fuelling the growth in demand for convenient forms of energy. Considering
the above drivers, the Bangladesh 2050 Pathways Model suggested 35 times higher
energy demand than that of 2010 by 2050. The government and private sector have
started a substantial amount of investments in the energy sector to meet the signi
ficant future demand. Approximately US250 billion in 2050 under HCS, which can be reduced 23% under
ZCS. The cost of decarbonization would be 3.6, 3.4 and 3.2 times under average
cost of MCS, LCS, and ZCS, than that of HCS. As the energy sector of Bangladesh
is under rapid development, the accumulated capital would be comparatively high
by 2050. However, fuel cost can be significantly reduced under LCS and ZCS which
would also ensure lower emissions. The study suggested that energy mix change,
technological maturity, corruption and demand reduction can influence the cost
of decarbonization. However, the most significant influencer for the decarbonization
of Bangladeshi energy sector would be the corruption. Results showed that if
Bangladesh can minimize the effect of corruption on the energy sector, it can reduce
the cost of decarbonization 45-77% by 2050 under MCS, LCS, and ZCS