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Intelligent modelling of bioprocesses: A comparison of structured and unstructured approaches
This contribution moves in the direction of answering some general questions about the most effective and useful ways of modelling bioprocesses. We investigate the characteristics of models that are good at extrapolating. We trained 3 fully predictive models with different representational structures (diff eqns, inheritance of rates, network of reactions) on Saccharopolyspora erythraea shake flask fermentation data using genetic programming. The models were then tested on unseen data outside the range of the training data and the resulting performances compared. It was found that constrained models with mathematical forms analogous to internal mass balancing and stoichiometric were superior to flexible unconstrained models even though no A priori knowledge of this fermentation was used
AI Solutions for MDS: Artificial Intelligence Techniques for Misuse Detection and Localisation in Telecommunication Environments
This report considers the application of Articial Intelligence (AI) techniques to
the problem of misuse detection and misuse localisation within telecommunications
environments. A broad survey of techniques is provided, that covers inter alia
rule based systems, model-based systems, case based reasoning, pattern matching,
clustering and feature extraction, articial neural networks, genetic algorithms, arti
cial immune systems, agent based systems, data mining and a variety of hybrid
approaches. The report then considers the central issue of event correlation, that
is at the heart of many misuse detection and localisation systems. The notion of
being able to infer misuse by the correlation of individual temporally distributed
events within a multiple data stream environment is explored, and a range of techniques,
covering model based approaches, `programmed' AI and machine learning
paradigms. It is found that, in general, correlation is best achieved via rule based approaches,
but that these suffer from a number of drawbacks, such as the difculty of
developing and maintaining an appropriate knowledge base, and the lack of ability
to generalise from known misuses to new unseen misuses. Two distinct approaches
are evident. One attempts to encode knowledge of known misuses, typically within
rules, and use this to screen events. This approach cannot generally detect misuses
for which it has not been programmed, i.e. it is prone to issuing false negatives.
The other attempts to `learn' the features of event patterns that constitute normal
behaviour, and, by observing patterns that do not match expected behaviour, detect
when a misuse has occurred. This approach is prone to issuing false positives,
i.e. inferring misuse from innocent patterns of behaviour that the system was not
trained to recognise. Contemporary approaches are seen to favour hybridisation,
often combining detection or localisation mechanisms for both abnormal and normal
behaviour, the former to capture known cases of misuse, the latter to capture
unknown cases. In some systems, these mechanisms even work together to update
each other to increase detection rates and lower false positive rates. It is concluded
that hybridisation offers the most promising future direction, but that a rule or state
based component is likely to remain, being the most natural approach to the correlation
of complex events. The challenge, then, is to mitigate the weaknesses of
canonical programmed systems such that learning, generalisation and adaptation
are more readily facilitated
Robust 24 Hours ahead Forecast in a Microgrid: A Real Case Study
Forecasting the power production from renewable energy sources (RESs) has become fundamental in microgrid applications to optimize scheduling and dispatching of the available assets. In this article, a methodology to provide the 24 h ahead Photovoltaic (PV) power forecast based on a Physical Hybrid Artificial Neural Network (PHANN) for microgrids is presented. The goal of this paper is to provide a robust methodology to forecast 24 h in advance the PV power production in a microgrid, addressing the specific criticalities of this environment. The proposed approach has to validate measured data properly, through an effective algorithm and further refine the power forecast when newer data are available. The procedure is fully implemented in a facility of the Multi-Good Microgrid Laboratory (MG(Lab)(2)) of the Politecnico di Milano, Milan, Italy, where new Energy Management Systems (EMSs) are studied. Reported results validate the proposed approach as a robust and accurate procedure for microgrid applications
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