Development of Machine Learning Techniques for Diabetic Retinopathy Risk Estimation

La retinopatia diabètica (DR) és una malaltia crònica. És una de les principals complicacions de diabetis i una causa essencial de pèrdua de visió entre les persones que pateixen diabetis. Els pacients diabètics han de ser analitzats periòdicament per tal de detectar signes de desenvolupament de la retinopatia en una fase inicial. El cribratge precoç i freqüent disminueix el risc de pèrdua de visió i minimitza la càrrega als centres assistencials. El nombre dels pacients diabètics està en augment i creixements ràpids, de manera que el fa difícil que consumeix recursos per realitzar un cribatge anual a tots ells. L’objectiu principal d’aquest doctorat. la tesi consisteix en construir un sistema de suport de decisions clíniques (CDSS) basat en dades de registre de salut electrònic (EHR). S'utilitzarà aquest CDSS per estimar el risc de desenvolupar RD. En aquesta tesi doctoral s'estudien mètodes d'aprenentatge automàtic per constuir un CDSS basat en regles lingüístiques difuses. El coneixement expressat en aquest tipus de regles facilita que el metge sàpiga quines combindacions de les condicions són les poden provocar el risc de desenvolupar RD. En aquest treball, proposo un mètode per reduir la incertesa en la classificació dels pacients que utilitzen arbres de decisió difusos (FDT). A continuació es combinen diferents arbres, usant la tècnica de Fuzzy Random Forest per millorar la qualitat de la predicció. A continuació es proposen diverses tècniques d'agregació que millorin la fusió dels resultats que ens dóna cadascun dels arbres FDT. Per millorar la decisió final dels nostres models, proposo tres mesures difuses que s'utilitzen amb integrals de Choquet i Sugeno. La definició d’aquestes mesures difuses es basa en els valors de confiança de les regles. En particular, una d'elles és una mesura difusa que es troba en la qual l'estructura jeràrquica de la FDT és explotada per trobar els valors de la mesura difusa. El resultat final de la recerca feta ha donat lloc a un programari que es pot instal·lar en centres d’assistència primària i hospitals, i pot ser usat pels metges de capçalera per fer l'avaluació preventiva i el cribatge de la Retinopatia Diabètica.La retinopatía diabética (RD) es una enfermedad crónica. Es una de las principales complicaciones de diabetes y una causa esencial de pérdida de visión entre las personas que padecen diabetes. Los pacientes diabéticos deben ser examinados periódicamente para detectar signos de diabetes. desarrollo de retinopatía en una etapa temprana. La detección temprana y frecuente disminuye el riesgo de pérdida de visión y minimiza la carga en los centros de salud. El número de pacientes diabéticos es enorme y está aumentando rápidamente, lo que lo hace difícil y Consume recursos para realizar una evaluación anual para todos ellos. El objetivo principal de esta tesis es construir un sistema de apoyo a la decisión clínica (CDSS) basado en datos de registros de salud electrónicos (EHR). Este CDSS será utilizado para estimar el riesgo de desarrollar RD. En este tesis doctoral se estudian métodos de aprendizaje automático para construir un CDSS basado en reglas lingüísticas difusas. El conocimiento expresado en este tipo de reglas facilita que el médico pueda saber que combinaciones de las condiciones son las que pueden provocar el riesgo de desarrollar RD. En este trabajo propongo un método para reducir la incertidumbre en la clasificación de los pacientes que usan árboles de decisión difusos (FDT). A continuación se combinan diferentes árboles usando la técnica de Fuzzy Random Forest para mejorar la calidad de la predicción. Se proponen también varias políticas para fusionar los resultados de que nos da cada uno de los árboles (FDT). Para mejorar la decisión final propongo tres medidas difusas que se usan con las integrales Choquet y Sugeno. La definición de estas medidas difusas se basa en los valores de confianza de las reglas. En particular, uno de ellos es una medida difusa descomponible en la que se usa la estructura jerárquica del FDT para encontrar los valores de la medida difusa. Como resultado final de la investigación se ha construido un software que puede instalarse en centros de atención médica y hospitales, i que puede ser usado por los médicos de cabecera para hacer la evaluación preventiva y el cribado de la Retinopatía Diabética.Diabetic retinopathy (DR) is a chronic illness. It is one of the main complications of diabetes, and an essential cause of vision loss among people suffering from diabetes. Diabetic patients must be periodically screened in order to detect signs of diabetic retinopathy development in an early stage. Early and frequent screening decreases the risk of vision loss and minimizes the load on the health care centres. The number of the diabetic patients is huge and rapidly increasing so that makes it hard and resource-consuming to perform a yearly screening to all of them. The main goal of this Ph.D. thesis is to build a clinical decision support system (CDSS) based on electronic health record (EHR) data. This CDSS will be utilised to estimate the risk of developing RD. In this Ph.D. thesis, I focus on developing novel interpretable machine learning systems. Fuzzy based systems with linguistic terms are going to be proposed. The output of such systems makes the physician know what combinations of the features that can cause the risk of developing DR. In this work, I propose a method to reduce the uncertainty in classifying diabetic patients using fuzzy decision trees. A Fuzzy Random forest (FRF) approach is proposed as well to estimate the risk for developing DR. Several policies are going to be proposed to merge the classification results achieved by different Fuzzy Decision Trees (FDT) models to improve the quality of the final decision of our models, I propose three fuzzy measures that are used with Choquet and Sugeno integrals. The definition of these fuzzy measures is based on the confidence values of the rules. In particular, one of them is a decomposable fuzzy measure in which the hierarchical structure of the FDT is exploited to find the values of the fuzzy measure. Out of this Ph.D. work, we have built a CDSS software that may be installed in the health care centres and hospitals in order to evaluate and detect Diabetic Retinopathy at early stages

Learning fuzzy measures for aggregation in fuzzy rule-based models

Comunicación presentada al 15th International Conference on Modeling Decisions for Artificial Intelligence, MDAI 2018 (15 - 18 october 2018).Fuzzy measures are used to express background knowledge of the information sources. In fuzzy rule-based models, the rule confidence gives an important information about the final classes and their relevance. This work proposes to use fuzzy measures and integrals to combine rules confidences when making a decision. A Sugeno $$\lambda $$ -measure and a distorted probability have been used in this process. A clinical decision support system (CDSS) has been built by applying this approach to a medical dataset. Then we use our system to estimate the risk of developing diabetic retinopathy. We show performance results comparing our system with others in the literature.This work is supported by the URV grant 2017PFR-URV-B2-60, and by the Spanish research projects no: PI12/01535 and PI15/01150 for (Instituto de Salud Carlos III and FEDER funds). Mr. Saleh has a Pre-doctoral grant (FI 2017) provided by the Catalan government and an Erasmus+ travel grant by URV. Prof. Bustince acknowledges the support of Spanish project TIN2016-77356-P

Modularity revisited: A novel dynamics-based concept for decomposing complex networks

Finding modules (or clusters) in large, complex networks is a challenging task, in particular if one is not interested in a full decomposition of the whole network into modules. We consider modular networks that also contain nodes that do not belong to one of modules but to several or to none at all. A new method for analyzing such networks is presented. It is based on spectral analysis of random walks on modular networks. In contrast to other spectral clustering approaches, we use different transition rules of the random walk. This leads to much more prominent gaps in the spectrum of the adapted random walk and allows for easy identification of the network's modular structure, and also identifying the nodes belonging to these modules. We also give a characterization of that set of nodes that do not belong to any module, which we call transition region. Finally, by analyzing the transition region, we describe an algorithm that identifies so called hub-nodes inside the transition region that are important connections between modules or between a module and the rest of the network. The resulting algorithms scale linearly with network size (if the network connectivity is sparse) and thus can also be applied to very large networks

Contributions to artificial intelligence: the IIIA perspective

La intel·ligència artificial (IA) és un camp científic i tecnològic relativament nou dedicat a l'estudi de la intel·ligència mitjançant l'ús d'ordinadors com a eines per produir comportament intel·ligent. Inicialment, l'objectiu era essencialment científic: assolir una millor comprensió de la intel·ligència humana. Aquest objectiu ha estat, i encara és, el dels investigadors en ciència cognitiva. Dissortadament, aquest fascinant però ambiciós objectiu és encara molt lluny de ser assolit i ni tan sols podem dir que ens hi haguem acostat significativament. Afortunadament, però, la IA també persegueix un objectiu més aplicat: construir sistemes que ens resultin útils encara que la intel·ligència artificial de què estiguin dotats no tingui res a veure amb la intel·ligència humana i, per tant, aquests sistemes no ens proporcionarien necessàriament informació útil sobre la naturalesa de la intel·ligència humana. Aquest objectiu, que s'emmarca més aviat dins de l'àmbit de l'enginyeria, és actualment el que predomina entre els investigadors en IA i ja ha donat resultats impresionants, tan teòrics com aplicats, en moltíssims dominis d'aplicació. A més, avui dia, els productes i les aplicacions al voltant de la IA representen un mercat anual de desenes de milers de milions de dòlars. Aquest article resumeix les principals contribucions a la IA fetes pels investigadors de l'Institut d'Investigació en Intel·ligència Artificial del Consell Superior d'Investigacions Científiques durant els darrers cinc anys.Artificial intelligence is a relatively new scientific and technological field which studies the nature of intelligence by using computers to produce intelligent behaviour. Initially, the main goal was a purely scientific one, understanding human intelligence, and this remains the aim of cognitive scientists. Unfortunately, such an ambitious and fascinating goal is not only far from being achieved but has yet to be satisfactorily approached. Fortunately, however, artificial intelligence also has an engineering goal: building systems that are useful to people even if the intelligence of such systems has no relation whatsoever with human intelligence, and therefore being able to build them does not necessarily provide any insight into the nature of human intelligence. This engineering goal has become the predominant one among artificial intelligence researchers and has produced impressive results, ranging from knowledge-based systems to autonomous robots, that have been applied to many different domains. Furthermore, artificial intelligence products and services today represent an annual market of tens of billions of dollars worldwide. This article summarizes the main contributions to the field of artificial intelligence made at the IIIA-CSIC (Artificial Intelligence Research Institute of the Spanish Scientific Research Council) over the last five years

HIERARCHICAL-GRANULARITY HOLONIC MODELLING

This thesis aims to introduce an agent-based system engineering approach, named Hierarchical-Granularity Holonic Modelling, to support intelligent information processing at multiple granularity levels. The focus is especially on complex hierarchical systems. Nowadays, due to ever growing complexity of information systems and processes, there is an increasing need of a simple self-modular computational model able to manage data and perform information granulation at different resolutions (i.e., both spatial and temporal). The current literature lacks to provide such a methodology. To cite a relevant example, the object-oriented paradigm is suitable for describing a system at a given representation level; notwithstanding, further design effort is needed if a more synthetical of more analytical view of the same system is required. In the literature, the agent paradigm represents a viable solution in complex systems modelling; in particular, Multi-Agent Systems have been applied with success in a countless variety of distributed intelligence settings. Current agent-oriented implementations however suffer from an apparent dichotomy between agents as intelligent entities and agents\u2019 structures as superimposed hierarchies of roles within a given organization. The agents\u2019 architectures are often rigid and require intense re-engineering when the underpinning ontology is updated to cast new design criteria. The latest stage in the evolution of modelling frameworks is represented by Holonic Systems, based on the notion of \u2018holon\u2019 and \u2018holarchy\u2019 (i.e., hierarchy of holons). A holon, just like an agent, is an intelligent entity able to interact with the environment and to take decisions to solve a specific problem. Contrarily to agent, holon has the noteworthy property of playing the role of a whole and a part at the same time. This reflects at the organizational level: holarchy functions first as autonomous wholes in supra-ordination to their parts, secondly as dependent parts in sub-ordination to controls on higher levels, and thirdly in coordination with their local environment. These ideas were originally devised by Arthur Koestler in 1967. Since then, Holonic Systems have gained more and more credit in various fields such as Biology, Ecology, Theory of Emergence and Intelligent Manufacturing. Notwithstanding, with respect to these disciplines, fewer works on Holonic Systems can be found in the general framework of Artificial and Computational Intelligence. Moreover, the distance between theoretic models and actual implementation is still wide open. In this thesis, starting from the Koestler\u2019s original idea, we devise a novel agent-inspired model that merges intelligence with the holonic structure at multiple hierarchical-granularity levels. This is made possible thanks to a rule-based knowledge recursive representation, which allows the holonic agent to carry out both operating and learning tasks in a hierarchy of granularity levels. The proposed model can be directly used in terms of hardware/software applications. This endows systems and software engineers with a modular and scalable approach when dealing with complex hierarchical systems. In order to support our claims, exemplar experiments of our proposal are shown and prospective implications are commented

Analyzing decision making in software design

A model is given for the analysis of rationality in design decision making. We define a formal means for answering the query, To what extent has a designer, on a particular occasion, using an explicit definition of 'good', decided rationally?A decision rationality classification scheme is proposed. This scheme incorporates non-compensatory decision analysis techniques (dominance and conjunctive cut-off) as well as compensatory techniques (simple and hierarchical additive weighting, linear assignment, concordance, and displaced ideal). A formal definition of design decision is derived by extending the Lehman, Stenning, Turski transformational model of the software design process. Their view of artifact specification mappings between linguistic systems is extended to include the concomitant effect of the mapping on resource expenditure.A formal specification for decision control knowledge is defined. This representation is the union of that knowledge required to support the various decision analysis techniques. Presumed to operationalize a designer's goals, the knowledge representation scheme includes five levels:1. Each objective expresses some relevant design concern for an artifact and/or resource characteristic.2. Each criterion expresses some relevant decomposition of a superior objective or criterion.3. Each attribute expresses the bottom-most decomposition for a superior criterion. Each attribute may have a weight indicating its relative contribution to its superior criterion.4. For each attribute, a value function expresses the designer's preference ordering over observed performance for an attribute.5. For each attribute, an observation channel describes an observer independent metric over some specification (either resource or artifact) rendered in some linguistic system and a procedure for application of that metric.Our model is applied to problems in Structured Design and conceptual data modeling. We argue that a comprehensive design history must include not only the transformations applied but also the rationale used in deciding their application. This rationale must include decision control knowledge governing both artifact (product) and resource (process) facets of design decision making. The principal contribution of this work is that the opacity of the decision intensive aspects of design are reduced thereby taking a necessary step for increasing the efficiency and effectiveness of software development

A Hierarchical Model-Based Reasoning Approach for Fault Diagnosis in Multi-Platform Space Systems

Health monitoring and fault diagnosis in traditional single spacecraft missions are mostly accomplished by human operators on ground through around-the-clock monitoring and trend analysis on huge amount of telemetry data. Future multiplatform space missions, commonly known as the formation flight missions, will utilize multiple inexpensive spacecraft in formation by distributing the functionalities of a single platform among the miniature inexpensive platforms. Current spacecraft diagnosis practices do not scale up well for multiple space platforms due to an increasing need to make the long-duration missions cost-effective by limiting the size of the operations team which will be large if traditional diagnosis is employed. An ideal solution to this problem is to incorporate an autonomous fault detection, isolation, and recovery (FDIR) mechanism. However, the effectiveness of spacecraft autonomy is yet to be demonstrated and due to the existence of perceived risks, it is often desired that the expert human operators be involved in the spacecraft operations and diagnosis processes i.e., the autonomous spacecraft actions be understandable by the human operators on ground so that intervention may be made, if necessary. To address the above problems and requirements, in this research a systematic and transparent fault diagnosis methodology for ground-based operations of multi-platform space systems is developed. First, novel hierarchical fault diagnosis concepts and framework are developed. Within this framework, a multi-platform space system is decomposed hierarchically into multiple levels. The decomposition is driven by the need for supporting the development of the components/subsystems of the overall system by a number of design teams and performing integration at the end. A multi-platform system is considered to be a set of interacting components where components at different levels correspond to formation, system, sub-system, etc. depending on the location of the node in the hierarchy. Two directed graph based fault diagnosis models are developed namely, fuzzy rule based hierarchical fault diagnosis model (HFDM), and Bayesian networks (BN)-based component dependency model (CDM). In HFDM, fault diagnosis of different components in the formation flight is investigated. Fuzzy rules are developed for fault diagnosis at different levels in the hierarchy by taking into account the uncertainties in the fault manifestations in a given component. In this model, the component interactions are quantified without taking the uncertainties in the component health state dependencies into account. Next, a component dependency model (CDM) based on Bayesian networks (BN) models is developed in order to take the uncertainties in component dependencies into account. A novel methodology for identifying CDM parameters is proposed. Fault evidences are introduced to the CDM when the fault modes of a component are observed via fuzzy rule activations. Advantages and limitations associated with the proposed HFDM and the CDM are also discussed. Finally, the verification and validation (V&V) of the hierarchical diagnosis models are investigated via a sensitivity analysis approach. It should be noted that the proposed methodology and the fault diagnosis strategies and algorithms that are developed in this research are generic in a sense that they can be applied to any hierarchically decomposable complex systems. However, the system and domain specific knowledge they require, especially for modeling component dependencies, are mostly available in the aerospace industry where extensive system design and integration-related analysis are common due to high system building cost and failure risks involved