Simulating city growth by using the cellular automata algorithm

The objective of this thesis is to develop and implement a Cellular Automata (CA) algorithm to simulate urban growth process. It attempts to satisfy the need to predict the future shape of a city, the way land uses sprawl in the surroundings of that city and its population. Salonica city in Greece is selected as a case study to simulate its urban growth. Cellular automaton (CA) based models are increasingly used to investigate cities and urban systems. Sprawling cities may be considered as complex adaptive systems, and this warrants use of methodology that can accommodate the space-time dynamics of many interacting entities. Automata tools are well-suited for representation of such systems. By means of illustrating this point, the development of a model for simulating the sprawl of land uses such as commercial and residential and calculating the population who will reside in the city is discussed

Astrobiological Complexity with Probabilistic Cellular Automata

Search for extraterrestrial life and intelligence constitutes one of the major endeavors in science, but has yet been quantitatively modeled only rarely and in a cursory and superficial fashion. We argue that probabilistic cellular automata (PCA) represent the best quantitative framework for modeling astrobiological history of the Milky Way and its Galactic Habitable Zone. The relevant astrobiological parameters are to be modeled as the elements of the input probability matrix for the PCA kernel. With the underlying simplicity of the cellular automata constructs, this approach enables a quick analysis of large and ambiguous input parameters' space. We perform a simple clustering analysis of typical astrobiological histories and discuss the relevant boundary conditions of practical importance for planning and guiding actual empirical astrobiological and SETI projects. In addition to showing how the present framework is adaptable to more complex situations and updated observational databases from current and near-future space missions, we demonstrate how numerical results could offer a cautious rationale for continuation of practical SETI searches.Comment: 37 pages, 11 figures, 2 tables; added journal reference belo

Empiricism and stochastics in cellular automaton modeling of urban land use dynamics

An increasing number of models for predicting land use change in regions of rapidurbanization are being proposed and built using ideas from cellular automata (CA)theory. Calibrating such models to real situations is highly problematic and to date,serious attention has not been focused on the estimation problem. In this paper, wepropose a structure for simulating urban change based on estimating land usetransitions using elementary probabilistic methods which draw their inspiration fromBayes' theory and the related ?weights of evidence? approach. These land use changeprobabilities drive a CA model ? DINAMICA ? conceived at the Center for RemoteSensing of the Federal University of Minas Gerais (CSR-UFMG). This is based on aneight cell Moore neighborhood approach implemented through empirical land useallocation algorithms. The model framework has been applied to a medium-size townin the west of São Paulo State, Bauru. We show how various socio-economic andinfrastructural factors can be combined using the weights of evidence approach whichenables us to predict the probability of changes between land use types in differentcells of the system. Different predictions for the town during the period 1979-1988were generated, and statistical validation was then conducted using a multipleresolution fitting procedure. These modeling experiments support the essential logicof adopting Bayesian empirical methods which synthesize various information aboutspatial infrastructure as the driver of urban land use change. This indicates therelevance of the approach for generating forecasts of growth for Brazilian citiesparticularly and for world-wide cities in general

Data-driven Flood Emulation: Speeding up Urban Flood Predictions by Deep Convolutional Neural Networks

Computational complexity has been the bottleneck of applying physically-based simulations on large urban areas with high spatial resolution for efficient and systematic flooding analyses and risk assessments. To address this issue of long computational time, this paper proposes that the prediction of maximum water depth rasters can be considered as an image-to-image translation problem where the results are generated from input elevation rasters using the information learned from data rather than by conducting simulations, which can significantly accelerate the prediction process. The proposed approach was implemented by a deep convolutional neural network trained on flood simulation data of 18 designed hyetographs on three selected catchments. Multiple tests with both designed and real rainfall events were performed and the results show that the flood predictions by neural network uses only 0.5 % of time comparing with physically-based approaches, with promising accuracy and ability of generalizations. The proposed neural network can also potentially be applied to different but relevant problems including flood predictions for urban layout planning

Can geocomputation save urban simulation? Throw some agents into the mixture, simmer and wait ...

There are indications that the current generation of simulation models in practical, operational uses has reached the limits of its usefulness under existing specifications. The relative stasis in operational urban modeling contrasts with simulation efforts in other disciplines, where techniques, theories, and ideas drawn from computation and complexity studies are revitalizing the ways in which we conceptualize, understand, and model real-world phenomena. Many of these concepts and methodologies are applicable to operational urban systems simulation. Indeed, in many cases, ideas from computation and complexity studies—often clustered under the collective term of geocomputation, as they apply to geography—are ideally suited to the simulation of urban dynamics. However, there exist several obstructions to their successful use in operational urban geographic simulation, particularly as regards the capacity of these methodologies to handle top-down dynamics in urban systems. This paper presents a framework for developing a hybrid model for urban geographic simulation and discusses some of the imposing barriers against innovation in this field. The framework infuses approaches derived from geocomputation and complexity with standard techniques that have been tried and tested in operational land-use and transport simulation. Macro-scale dynamics that operate from the topdown are handled by traditional land-use and transport models, while micro-scale dynamics that work from the bottom-up are delegated to agent-based models and cellular automata. The two methodologies are fused in a modular fashion using a system of feedback mechanisms. As a proof-of-concept exercise, a micro-model of residential location has been developed with a view to hybridization. The model mixes cellular automata and multi-agent approaches and is formulated so as to interface with meso-models at a higher scale

Object orientation and visualization of physics in two dimensions

We present a generalized framework for cellular/lattice based visualizations in two dimensions based on state of the art computing abstractions. Our implementation takes the form of a library of reusable functions written in C++ which hides complex graphical programming issues from the user and mimics the algebraic structure of physics at the Hamiltonian level. Our toolkit is not just a graphics library but an object analysis of physical systems which disentangles separate concepts in a faithful analytical way. It could be rewritten in other languages such as Java and extended to three dimensional systems straightforwardly. We illustrate the usefulness of our analysis with implementations of spin-films (the two-dimensional XY model with and without an external magnetic field) and a model for diffusion through a triangular lattice.Comment: 12 pages, 10 figure

Computational fluid dynamics research at the United Technologies Research Center requiring supercomputers

An overview of research activities at the United Technologies Research Center (UTRC) in the area of Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) is presented. The requirement and use of various levels of computers, including supercomputers, for the CFD activities is described. Examples of CFD directed toward applications to helicopters, turbomachinery, heat exchangers, and the National Aerospace Plane are included. Helicopter rotor codes for the prediction of rotor and fuselage flow fields and airloads were developed with emphasis on rotor wake modeling. Airflow and airload predictions and comparisons with experimental data are presented. Examples are presented of recent parabolized Navier-Stokes and full Navier-Stokes solutions for hypersonic shock-wave/boundary layer interaction, and hydrogen/air supersonic combustion. In addition, other examples of CFD efforts in turbomachinery Navier-Stokes methodology and separated flow modeling are presented. A brief discussion of the 3-tier scientific computing environment is also presented, in which the researcher has access to workstations, mid-size computers, and supercomputers

Urban Area Development in Stochastic Cellular Automata

Urban is still an interesting topic to discuss whether in government or public studies. As economy grows in cities, many people are attracted to come to cities from villages to try their luck. In this paper, we investigated urban area development using von Thunen’s economic location theory. By using stochastic Cellular Automata which views land location as agents that will change their states in agriculture, industry, and service series, here we show how the urban areas dominated by economy, industry, and service activities develop to their surroundings and form areas with typical activities with urban area. Even for the farther agriculture area from urban center, von Thunen’s theory is still valid.von Thunen’s Theory, urban, Stochastic Cellular Automata, Markov matrices

A complex network approach to urban growth

The economic geography can be viewed as a large and growing network of interacting activities. This fundamental network structure and the large size of such systems makes complex networks an attractive model for its analysis. In this paper we propose the use of complex networks for geographical modeling and demonstrate how such an application can be combined with a cellular model to produce output that is consistent with large scale regularities such as power laws and fractality. Complex networks can provide a stringent framework for growth dynamic modeling where concepts from e.g. spatial interaction models and multiplicative growth models can be combined with the flexible representation of land and behavior found in cellular automata and agent-based models. In addition, there exists a large body of theory for the analysis of complex networks that have direct applications for urban geographic problems. The intended use of such models is twofold: i) to address the problem of how the empirically observed hierarchical structure of settlements can be explained as a stationary property of a stochastic evolutionary process rather than as equilibrium points in a dynamics, and, ii) to improve the prediction quality of applied urban modeling.evolutionary economics, complex networks, urban growth